⚡️🇸🇦🇾🇪 — Saudi Arabia is planning a major military offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen expected to launch within weeks, aiming to reverse recent Houthi coastal advances and reclaim control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to regional and Western officials. The operation will be executed by Riyadh-overseen Yemeni ground forces supported by Saudi airstrikes. — Reuters.

➡️ While the U.S. provides intelligence and targeting data for air operations, and select regional/European states deliver defensive aid, foreign allies will not engage in direct combat. The scale of U.S. involvement remains restricted after President Trump rebuffed requests from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for direct American airstrikes. Estimates for the operational launch window range from within a week to immediately after the U.S. midterm elections in early November 2026.

➡️ The offensive responds to Riyadh’s strategic assessment that peace negotiations are impossible while Houthis maintain control over the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Planners are evaluating two operational courses of action: a localized assault targeting the Bab el-Mandeb coastal corridor, or a synchronized multi-front offensive across Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al-Jawf governorates. The operation could mobilize over 100,000 Yemeni troops.

Former U.S. Ambassador Michael Ratney assessed the intervention will likely remain more modest than the 2015 campaign, focusing strictly on restoring the coastal status quo ante to secure maritime traffic. Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi and Yemen expert Mohammed Albasha noted that success depends entirely on the performance of the disparate local Yemeni factions, which remain fractured and face simultaneous Houthi pressure across multiple active fronts.

➡️ Riyadh’s primary vulnerability remains the protection of critical oil infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile retaliation, prompting extensive defensive deployments by international partners. Under a trilateral joint defense agreement signed on August 7, 2026, Turkey and Pakistan have supplied critical hardware; Islamabad dispatched four cargo aircraft to Aden containing air defense systems, light artillery, drones, and anti-drone systems, alongside military advisers to embed with Saudi and Yemeni counterparts. Furthermore, Pakistan deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia in sequential waves to secure land borders and assist in missile/drone interceptions, though Islamabad maintains a strict prohibition against entering Yemen in a combat capacity.

Concurrently, France recently announced the deployment of troops and specialized defensive systems to safeguard the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.

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