Glassnode

The Week On-Chain 40, 2025
Bitcoin broke above the $114k–$117k supply zone to new highs near $126k, driven by strong ETF inflows and mid-tier accumulation. On-chain remains firm, though rising leverage adds short-term risk.

Executive Summary
- On-chain profitability has surged, with 97% of supply now in profit. While elevated profit levels often precede consolidation, realized profits remain contained, suggesting an orderly rotation rather than distribution pressure.
- The $117K supply cluster has been flipped into support, marking a structural pivot where small and mid-sized holders continue to accumulate, offsetting moderate profit-taking from larger entities.
- Bitcoin has broken to new all-time highs near $126K, driven by renewed spot demand and record ETF inflows exceeding $2.2B. The surge in institutional participation has lifted both price and market activity, with spot volumes reaching multi-month highs as Q4 begins.
- Derivatives markets expanded sharply during the rally, with futures open interest and funding rates rising as late longs entered. The current pullback is now testing this leverage, helping to reset positioning and restore balance.
- In the options market, implied volatility has lifted, skew turned neutral, and call-heavy flows dominate. Momentum remains strong, but bullish positioning is becoming increasingly crowded.


Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter

Large traders demonstrated expert timing as $BTC reversed from recent highs.

The shift to a net short bias suggests profit-taking on longs alongside new short positioning.

Track these shifts in positioning in real time:
🔗https://glassno.de/3KFjk5N

With the price breaking above $117k, over 95% of the circulating supply has returned to profit.
This is a hallmark of Euphoria phases, where widespread profitability often fuels accelerated profit-taking and rising market risk.

📈:https://glassno.de/4nDmNQG

#BTC Futures Open Interest rose sharply as traders added longs during the breakout to new highs.

The current pullback is testing these positions, helping to reset leverage. It will be key to see where buyers step in and whether support levels attract renewed demand.

📈 https://glassno.de/46GsDen

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution shows thin support between $121K and $120K, with a key cluster near $117K where around 190K BTC were last acquired.
A pullback into this area could attract demand as recent buyers defend the level.

📈: https://glassno.de/48Qooht

#Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high above $125K, driven by strong ETF inflows, renewed spot demand, and rising on-chain activity. The rally appears structurally supported, not purely speculative.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/46CWbcJ

#Bitcoin spot ETF flows have turned sharply positive, driving price to new all-time highs.
Renewed institutional demand is reinforcing market momentum, marking a key shift in capital flows after weeks of outflows.
Sustained inflows signal strengthening structural support into Q4.

The Trend Accumulation Score highlights a shift in recent days. Mid-sized #BTC holders are accumulating strongly, whale distribution has moderated, and smaller entities remain neutral. This points to fresh structural demand emerging despite continued large holder selling.

The Week On-Chain 39, 2025
Bitcoin holds support at the STH cost basis, with ETFs and slowing LTH sell pressure adding stability. Options reset post-expiry as OI rebuilds, vol eases, and flows tilt toward cautious Q4 upside.

Executive Summary
- STH cost basis defended repeatedly, acting as a key pivot between bullish continuation and downside risk. Resistance sits near $118k supply cluster.
- LTH selling cooled after months of distribution, while ETF inflows resumed, stabilizing market structure.
- Fear & Greed Index slid from Greed to Neutral/Fear, showing profit-taking and reduced risk appetite.
- RVT trends confirm cooling, with fewer profits realized relative to network value.
- Options OI reset post-record expiry, now rebuilding into Q4 with room for fresh positioning.
- Volatility easing: front-end IV declining, skew normalizing, term structure in contango with back-end IV steady at 39–43%.
- Flows show cautious upside: traders adding risk reversals, cheap convexity, while selling puts.
- Dealer gamma balanced, muting hedging flows and dampening intraday volatility; no large expiries ahead.


Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter

#Bitcoin US Spot ETFs recorded persistent outflows in late September, exceeding 16k BTC over a two-week stretch.
Flows have since reversed, with 3.2k BTC of inflows on Sept 30, highlighting a potential shift in sentiment.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nRAvPC

Bitcoin dominance has rebounded from 57% to 59% alongside price strength near $114k.
This mean reversion suggests a healthier market structure, as $BTC-led rallies have historically proven more sustainable than those driven by altcoins.
🔗https://glassno.de/4o2XebP

#Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has compressed toward cycle lows, reflecting muted realized profits relative to network valuation. Historically, such resets often align with periods of market detox, helping build a foundation for more durable recoveries.


https://glassno.de/471jtJf

#Bitcoin 1M 25-delta skew keeps climbing, with puts priced at a premium over calls. Traders are paying up for downside protection, reflecting near-term caution, while upside optionality looks cheaper with implied vols still near historic lows.
🔗https://glassno.de/4nnTxNT

#Bitcoin traded above the STH cost basis near $111k this week. Spot momentum softened as the 14D RSI eased, while stronger Spot CVD signaled reduced net selling pressure.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://glassno.de/3KMwVIg