The Week On-Chain 40, 2025
Bitcoin broke above the $114k–$117k supply zone to new highs near $126k, driven by strong ETF inflows and mid-tier accumulation. On-chain remains firm, though rising leverage adds short-term risk.

Executive Summary
- On-chain profitability has surged, with 97% of supply now in profit. While elevated profit levels often precede consolidation, realized profits remain contained, suggesting an orderly rotation rather than distribution pressure.
- The $117K supply cluster has been flipped into support, marking a structural pivot where small and mid-sized holders continue to accumulate, offsetting moderate profit-taking from larger entities.
- Bitcoin has broken to new all-time highs near $126K, driven by renewed spot demand and record ETF inflows exceeding $2.2B. The surge in institutional participation has lifted both price and market activity, with spot volumes reaching multi-month highs as Q4 begins.
- Derivatives markets expanded sharply during the rally, with futures open interest and funding rates rising as late longs entered. The current pullback is now testing this leverage, helping to reset positioning and restore balance.
- In the options market, implied volatility has lifted, skew turned neutral, and call-heavy flows dominate. Momentum remains strong, but bullish positioning is becoming increasingly crowded.


Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter