The Week On-Chain 39, 2025
Bitcoin holds support at the STH cost basis, with ETFs and slowing LTH sell pressure adding stability. Options reset post-expiry as OI rebuilds, vol eases, and flows tilt toward cautious Q4 upside.

Executive Summary
- STH cost basis defended repeatedly, acting as a key pivot between bullish continuation and downside risk. Resistance sits near $118k supply cluster.
- LTH selling cooled after months of distribution, while ETF inflows resumed, stabilizing market structure.
- Fear & Greed Index slid from Greed to Neutral/Fear, showing profit-taking and reduced risk appetite.
- RVT trends confirm cooling, with fewer profits realized relative to network value.
- Options OI reset post-record expiry, now rebuilding into Q4 with room for fresh positioning.
- Volatility easing: front-end IV declining, skew normalizing, term structure in contango with back-end IV steady at 39–43%.
- Flows show cautious upside: traders adding risk reversals, cheap convexity, while selling puts.
- Dealer gamma balanced, muting hedging flows and dampening intraday volatility; no large expiries ahead.


Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter