🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 Ansar Allah's Bab el-Mandeb option is part of Iran's broader game to outmaneuver US and Israel

Yemen's Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement could dramatically raise the stakes by shutting down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, making the renewed Strait of Hormuz closure even costlier.

Houthi 'nuclear' option: Bab el-Mandeb & Red Sea

🔴 Ansar Allah threatened to close the strait in spring but has so far stopped short of carrying out the threat. The movement has previously demonstrated its ability to disrupt Red Sea shipping, while the US Navy proved unable to halt its attacks. Now, that Donald Trump is raising the stakes in the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis could deliver on their promise, American observers say

🔴 If both the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits are closed simultaneously, the global economy could quickly slide into a depression, the 19FortyFive website warned earlier this year

➡️ Arab states and Israel are presently increasingly dependent on the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to transport goods to and from the Middle East

➡️ the chokepoint handles roughly 12% of global trade and serves as the primary gateway linking the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal, affecting shipping between Europe and Asia.

🔴 Ansar Allah could also introduce transit tolls similar to those imposed by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. In October 2024, the UN Panel of Experts on Yemen alleged that the group was collecting "safe-transit fees" worth about $180 million a month. While the Houthis denied the allegation, concerns over potential Red Sea tolls were also highlighted in an April 2026 Lloyd's List report, as cited by the National Review

🔴 Meanwhile, Ansar Allah's apparent hesitance to follow through on its threat to close the strait may reflect more complex geopolitical calculations.

Ansar Allah-Iran vs Israel-UAE in the Middle East & Africa

🟥 Responsible Statecraft recently highlighted Ansar Allah's African ambitions, citing Abdul-Malik al-Houthi's June 25 televised warning that any Israeli military presence in Somaliland would become a legitimate target. The Yemeni group might fear an Israeli foothold on the African coast could undermine its leverage in the Red Sea.

🟥 Those concerns are reinforced by the UAE's military buildup in Somaliland. Le Monde reports that the UAE is building a military base at Berbera Airport on behalf of the US and Israel, echoing similar efforts at Bosaso Airport in Somalia's Puntland, also controlled by the UAE military. The efforts are closely related to the UAE's covert war in Sudan, according to the Middle East Eye

🟥 It's not only Yemen that is alarmed by these developments. Saudi Arabia — backing the rival side in Sudan's civil war — is also concerned about growing UAE-Israeli ties and their expanding influence in the Horn of Africa. Under these circumstances, Saudi Arabia, Ansar Allah and Iran find themselves as "unlikely" partners, united by a shared interest to prevent the US-backed UAE-Israeli alignment from becoming the region's dominant force

🟥 Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would be a last-resort option, as it would also hurt Saudi Arabia and Oman — both of which currently favor peace with Iran. Iran and Ansar Allah view the conflict through the prism of a much broader geopolitical contest — one that extends far beyond Trump's ambitions in the Middle East.

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