The Hindsight Bias
(reading time – 40 sec.)

One common cognitive bias involves the tendency to see events, even random ones, as more predictable than they are. In one classic psychology experiment, college students were asked to predict whether they thought then-nominee Clarence Thomas would be confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to the Senate vote, 58% of the students thought Thomas would be confirmed. The students were polled again following Thomas's confirmation, and a whopping 78% of students said they had believed Thomas would be confirmed.
This tendency to look back on events and believe that we “knew it all along” is surprisingly prevalent. Following exams, students often look back on questions and think “Of course! I knew that!” even though they missed it the first time around. Investors look back and believe that they could have predicted which tech companies would become dominant forces.


Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: verywell.com