EN:

The geopolitical context surrounding the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process remains highly dynamic, which may also influence the content of the normalisation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

(In the future, we may dedicate several social media sharings to this topic.)

In light of this evolving situation, it is particularly noteworthy to observe the changing geopolitical and narrative presence of Iran in the region.

Last week, the Iranian Ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, made several noteworthy statements in Yerevan. It is evident that he felt compelled to clarify his government’s position on several key issues. Several factors likely contributed to this need for a public explanation of Iran’s stance:
1. The recent visit of the Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, Hikmet Hajiyev, to Iran, accompanied by meetings with high-ranking Iranian officials, likely sparked discussions in Yerevan.
2. A few days ago, a video surfaced online showing Iranian Azerbaijanis dancing in the center of Yerevan while singing in Azerbaijani a song titled “Karabakh.”
3. The events in Syria in December 2024 likely caused concern among the Iranian elite, prompting Tehran to demonstrate its active presence in Armenia as a countermeasure against Azerbaijan and Turkey.

One of the most noteworthy aspects of the Ambassador’s interview was his commendation of Armenia’s military capabilities. In response to a journalist’s inquiry regarding Iran’s stance on Azerbaijan’s potential use of hard power to establish the Zangezur Corridor, he asserted:

“Armenia possesses the capability to defend itself; its defensive potential should not be underestimated.”

The current Iranian ambassador to Armenia previously held the same diplomatic status in Syria under the regime of Bashar al-Assad. During his tenure, the Assad regime acquired the necessary human resources and military equipment to sustain the stability of pro-Iranian rule in the country. Mr. Sobhani’s experience in coordinating logistical supply chains within a conflict zone is widely discussed among Azerbaijani and regional expert circles. His unwavering confidence in Armenia’s defense capabilities has garnered particular attention from analysts in Baku.

Furthermore, researcher community in Baku also confident that President Aliyev’s demand for the return of weapons located in Armenia and the Iranian ambassador’s unwavering confidence in Armenia’s military capabilities may be intricately linked issues.

@CPBView