Bull Run

⚠️ $261M Leaves Bitcoin ETFs as BTC Tests $81K

Bitcoin is back around $81.4K after losing nearly 3% over the past day, and institutional flows are turning shaky again.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $261.4M in net outflows yesterday. Fidelity led with −$152.7M, while BlackRock’s IBIT lost another −$110.9M. Just one session earlier, the same market had attracted +$175.7M.

That tells me there is still no stable institutional trend here. Money is moving in and out quickly as macro sentiment changes.

And yesterday gave investors another reason to be cautious: September CPI accelerated to 3.7%, putting another Fed hike back into the conversation.

For BTC, $81K–$81.5K is now the immediate test. Hold this zone and a recovery above $83K would improve the structure quickly. Lose $81K with momentum, and the correction starts looking much more serious.

Right now, both ETF flows and inflation are working against Bitcoin. The response around support matters more than trying to call the bottom.

Bull Run 🐂

🚀 Payward Is Buying the Infrastructure Crypto Firms Usually Rent

Most crypto companies still rely heavily on banks for the boring but essential parts of finance: deposits, payments, cards and lending. Payward is taking a different route.

The company behind Kraken has agreed to acquire Saldo Finance, bringing Lithuania-licensed Saldo Bank into its infrastructure stack once regulators approve the transaction.

That gives Payward a much more direct route into European banking services. Customers could eventually move between cash, crypto, tokenized assets and credit without jumping across completely separate financial providers.

🏦 This is less about Kraken “buying a bank” for the headline and more about vertical integration.

The more infrastructure Payward controls itself, the less dependent it becomes on third parties to connect crypto with traditional money.

The deal is expected to close in 2027. BTC is trading near $83.5K. Crypto companies spent years building around banks. Now some of them are starting to become part of the banking system itself.

Bull Run 🐂

👀 Bitcoin Is Holding Up Better Than Tech

Good morning, team!

Asia opened with a sharp risk-off move, led by heavy selling in AI and semiconductor stocks. Samsung and SK Hynix were hit hard, while Japan’s Nikkei also moved lower — yet BTC is still holding around the $83K area.

That matters because Bitcoin usually reacts quickly when global risk sentiment deteriorates. This time, slightly lower Treasury yields and softer oil are taking some pressure off, even though financial conditions remain restrictive.

📍 I’m watching $83K as the first line buyers need to protect. Above it, $84.5K–$85K remains the recovery zone. A clean break below would tell me BTC is finally starting to follow the broader risk-off move.

With CPI tomorrow, today is more about resilience than direction.

Bitcoin is not leading higher yet — but it is also refusing to break with tech.

Bull Run 🐂

JUST IN: Tom Lee's 'BitMine' buys 12,532 $ETH worth $31 million.

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🟠 Bitcoin Is Becoming More Than an Asset Banks Let You Buy

South Korea just produced an important precedent for BTC inside traditional finance.

Jeonbuk Bank has extended corporate financing secured by Bitcoin, allowing businesses to unlock won liquidity without selling their BTC holdings. The coins stay with a qualified custodian rather than moving onto the bank’s own balance sheet.

The legal structure is also becoming clearer. Since October 1, revised enforcement rules allow pledged digital assets to be sold through court procedures if a borrower defaults.

For now, the model remains conservative: BTC is the only accepted crypto collateral, and Jeonbuk Bank has not disclosed its LTV, rates or loan limits.

Bitcoin is trading near $83.4K.

What matters here is the precedent. BTC is no longer being integrated only through ETFs, custody or trading desks — it is starting to enter the credit system as collateral for ordinary bank loans.

Bull Run 🐂

🔥 ETF Selling Finally Slowed — Now BTC Needs to Prove It Matters

Last week was not kind to Bitcoin funds.

Nearly $679M left US spot ETFs, including two heavy redemption days in the middle of the week. Then on Friday, flows finally flipped back into positive territory with a modest $21.1M inflow.

Bitcoin’s reaction has been surprisingly stable.

BTC held the $83K region over the weekend and is now trying to build back toward $84K. That tells me institutional selling hurt momentum, but it did not completely break demand underneath the market.

Oil is also giving risk assets some relief. Brent has fallen toward $103, easing one of the inflation pressures that pushed markets around last week 🛢

The bigger event is still ahead: US CPI arrives Wednesday, with headline inflation expected to accelerate toward 3.7%.

My map is simple — defend $82.8K–$83K and $84.1K becomes the next trigger. Clear that, and $85K is back in play.

The ETF pressure has cooled. Now price needs to show that buyers are ready to use the opportunity.

Bull Run 🐂

🏦 Bitcoin and Ethereum Are Moving Onto Thailand’s Stock Exchange

Crypto exposure in Thailand is about to look much more like traditional investing.

Starting October 16, new SEC rules will allow local asset managers to create exchange-traded funds tracking BTC and ETH. Investors will be able to access them through the stock market rather than buying crypto directly.

The framework is deliberately strict. Funds must operate passively, keep at least 80% average exposure to the selected asset and use regulated digital asset custodians 🔐

No individual ETF has been approved yet — this is the infrastructure stage.

But that is exactly why the announcement matters. Once the framework exists, fund managers can begin building regulated products around it.

BTC is currently near $82.5K.

Crypto adoption does not always mean more people opening wallets. Sometimes it means Bitcoin simply appearing inside the financial products investors already use.

Bull Run 🐂

👀 Bitcoin Is Getting Hit by ETF Selling – But Buyers Are Still Showing Up

More than $723M has left US Bitcoin ETFs in just two sessions, yet BTC is still trading around $82.45K instead of accelerating lower.

That contrast is what I’m watching.

The flow reversal has been aggressive, but sellers have not been able to turn it into a clean breakdown. Bitcoin dropped from the $85.5K region, then started stabilizing above $82K even as Fidelity and other funds continued to see redemptions.

At the same time, some pressure from traditional markets has eased. Oil pulled back, yields softened and the dollar lost momentum, giving risk assets at least some breathing room.

⚖️ So the market now has a simple test: can BTC keep absorbing institutional selling without losing support?

$82K remains the key floor. Above it, a rebound toward $83.3K–$84K stays realistic. Below it, I would expect yesterday’s lows to come back into play quickly.

The ETF bid may be gone for now.

The real question is whether spot buyers are strong enough to replace it.

Bull Run 🐂

🔐 Crypto Custody Is Becoming a Normal Banking Service

A few years ago, institutional crypto custody was mostly the territory of specialist firms.

Now Standard Chartered wants to offer it directly in Singapore.

The bank is preparing custody services covering selected cryptoassets, stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets, giving institutional clients another way to hold digital assets inside regulated banking infrastructure.

And Singapore is not an isolated move. Standard Chartered has been expanding similar capabilities across the UAE, Luxembourg and Hong Kong while also building out trading, financing and tokenization services.

That is the bigger story here.

Banks are no longer asking whether they should touch crypto. They are starting to compete over who can provide the full infrastructure around it.

BTC is currently holding near $83K.

For institutions, the line between “crypto infrastructure” and ordinary banking infrastructure keeps getting thinner.

Bull Run 🐂

⚡️ Bitcoin Just Flushed Half a Billion Dollars of Leverage

BTC falling below $84K grabbed the headline, but the derivatives market tells the bigger story.

More than $500M in crypto positions disappeared over the past 24 hours as Bitcoin dropped sharply from the $86.6K region. Around $487M of the roughly $556M tracked by CoinGlass came from long positions alone.

So what we are seeing is not simply traders deciding to sell. A large part of the move became mechanical once leveraged positions started hitting liquidation levels.

The initial pressure came from a familiar source: oil. Brent moved back above $101 on renewed Middle East supply fears, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3% and the dollar strengthened.

BTC is now around the $83K–$84K area, and that is where the next part gets interesting.

If $83K holds, the leverage reset may actually leave the market healthier than it was yesterday. If that level breaks, there is much less technical support before $80K.

The excess longs have been cleared. Now we see whether buyers actually want the dip.

Bull Run 🐂

🧭 Bitcoin Is Getting a Friendly Macro Setup — But Still Won’t Break Out

Good morning, team!

BTC is holding near $86K while the rest of the risk market looks much stronger. Nasdaq is sitting at record highs, oil has cooled toward $100, and expectations for another Fed hike in October have dropped sharply.

Normally, that would be enough to pull Bitcoin higher.

Instead, BTC is still stuck below resistance, while spot ETFs just recorded another $89.8M in net outflows and Treasury yields remain elevated near 5.3%. That tells me the market is still missing one thing: real follow-through from buyers.

👀 For now, $85K is the level keeping the structure intact. A clean move above $86.5K would reopen $87.5K–$88K, but losing $85K while equities stay strong would be a clear sign of relative weakness.

The setup is becoming simple: Bitcoin has the macro excuse to rally. Now it has to prove that demand is actually there.

Bull Run 🐂

📊 ETF Buying Almost Disappeared — Bitcoin Is Still Holding Near $86K

Good morning, team!

Bitcoin starts the week just under $86K after another attempt to break through the $87K area. The breakout is still missing, but what interests me more is how well BTC is holding without the institutional demand we saw earlier.

Two weeks ago, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $2.39B. Last week, that number collapsed to only about $83M.

That is a huge slowdown in fresh ETF buying — yet BTC never returned to the previous lows.

The support is now coming from macro. September payrolls badly missed expectations, pushing the probability of another Fed hike in October from around 64% a week earlier to below 20% 📉

The problem is that Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar is still strong, so financial conditions are far from easy.

For today, I’m watching $85K as the first support and $86.9K–$87K as the ceiling.

If Bitcoin clears $87K without another wave of massive ETF inflows, that would be a strong sign that demand is coming from somewhere broader than just the funds.

Bull Run 🐂

📈 Bitcoin Is Above $86K — Without Help From ETFs

Good morning, team!

BTC pushed as high as $86,885 this morning before cooling back toward $86K. What stands out is not the breakout itself, but the environment in which it happened.

Treasury yields reached 5.34% this week, the dollar climbed to an 18-month high, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost another $92.9M yesterday. In other words, Bitcoin is moving higher while several of its usual macro and institutional tailwinds are missing.

That makes today’s US jobs report much more important. Markets expect around 90K new jobs after August’s 162K, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. A strong surprise could quickly bring rate-hike expectations back into the conversation.

📍 I’m watching $85K as the first real support. Hold it, and another attempt at $86.9K–$87K remains in play. Lose it after payrolls, and yesterday’s breakout starts looking much less convincing.

The headline today is not simply that BTC went up. It is that buyers managed to push it higher while almost everything around the market was working against them.

Bull Run 🐂

🧭 Crypto Isn’t the Only Market Worth Watching

I still follow Bitcoin and crypto, but lately I’ve noticed how much energy goes into sorting through things that do not actually improve a trade.

News, altcoins, liquidation maps, narratives, calls for the next 10x — the feed never stops.

Stocks have been a useful change of pace for me. There is usually a clearer starting point: a company, its results, market expectations and a technical structure you can actually work with.

One of the channels now sitting in my feed is Hedge Capital

They share stock market signals and trade ideas without charging for access. It is not something I would use as a replacement for my own analysis, but it works well as another source of setups to review.

If you want to diversify what you watch beyond crypto, here it is 👇
https://t.me/Hedge_Capital

Bull Run 🐂

📊 In September, top altcoins significantly outperformed Bitcoin—posting a median gain of 27.5% compared to BTC’s 7%.

If a formal reason to talk about an "altseason" is needed, the market has already provided one.

Bull Run 🐂

📉 The Economy Is Slowing Before Bitcoin Is Ready to React

US data is starting to weaken in a way that the Fed can no longer ignore. Job openings fell to 7.08M, while consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 — the lowest level since 2014.

That weakness is already changing the policy conversation. New York Fed President John Williams said there is no need to rush into another rate hike, which helped reduce expectations for an October move.

For Bitcoin, that should be a better setup.

The problem is that the bond market is still keeping conditions tight. The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5.23%, so capital is expensive even as the economic data softens.

BTC is trading around $83.1K and still has not turned the macro shift into a convincing recovery.

I’m watching $82.5K–$83K as support. If that zone holds and BTC gets back above $84K, the market may finally start pricing in a more cautious Fed.

If not, the correction remains the dominant story.

Bull Run 🐂

👀 Bitcoin Is Recovering, But Futures Traders Are Still Leaning Short

Good morning, team!

BTC has bounced back toward $84K after spending time around the $83K area, but the derivatives market still looks unusually cautious.

Open interest has fallen to roughly 652K BTC — one of the lowest readings of the year — while perpetual funding has turned negative again. In simple terms, leverage is leaving the market and the traders who remain are increasingly willing to pay to stay short.

That sounds bearish, but there is another side to it 📊

With fewer crowded longs and more aggressive shorts, the market is becoming less vulnerable to a long liquidation cascade. Any unexpected positive catalyst could instead force short sellers to unwind quickly.

Macro conditions are still difficult: Treasury yields remain above 5.2%, Brent is near $106, and the dollar is holding close to recent highs.

For me, the $82.8K–$83K area remains the important floor. As long as it survives, a move back through $84K could bring buyers back quickly.

The market is no longer overheated. Now the question is whether caution turns into another selloff — or fuel for the next squeeze.

Bull Run 🐂

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 US Senate investigation finds Iran is widely using Tether's $USDT to bypass sanctions, WSJ reports.

Bull Run 🐂