Good morning, team!
Bitcoin starts the week just under $86K after another attempt to break through the $87K area. The breakout is still missing, but what interests me more is how well BTC is holding without the institutional demand we saw earlier.
Two weeks ago, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $2.39B. Last week, that number collapsed to only about $83M.
That is a huge slowdown in fresh ETF buying — yet BTC never returned to the previous lows.
The support is now coming from macro. September payrolls badly missed expectations, pushing the probability of another Fed hike in October from around 64% a week earlier to below 20% 📉
The problem is that Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar is still strong, so financial conditions are far from easy.
For today, I’m watching $85K as the first support and $86.9K–$87K as the ceiling.
If Bitcoin clears $87K without another wave of massive ETF inflows, that would be a strong sign that demand is coming from somewhere broader than just the funds.
Bull Run 🐂