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The Art of Prediction

The Art of Prediction

@astreidesanalytics

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Showing posts older than #14233 · Back to latest

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Post #14232 34
Nix Astreides On Polymarket there is 8% chance that New People get the majority: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election
But Polymarket has always been a good predictor.
The problem is how are you certain that they will be able to draw so many votes? It worked previously because there was a still high enough support for UR.
Post #14231 34
Nix Astreides
I wouldn't trust it tho, people simply might say United Russia to preserve anonymous, because it's a public question AFTER they voted.
Post #14229 32
The New People party scored 48% of the votes in the State Duma among Russians at polling stations abroad in exit polls.
Post #14227 39
55.6% of Russian citizens in Yerevan voted for the New People party, according to an independent exit poll by the Vesna movement.
Post #14226 39
Results from the polling station #1953

Party votes:
New People 41.04%;
CPRF 32.5%;
United Russia 8.75%.

Candidate votes in the district:
Shabanov (Apple) 51.27%;
Cherepanov (CPRF) 16.15%;
Aksyonenko (SR) 13.88%.
Post #14225 47
Nix Astreides UR selected a candidate which looks like and have the same last name like the candidate from the opposition 😂
They are so desperate OMG 😂
Post #14224 46
Nix Astreides AHAHAHAHAHA 😂
UR selected a candidate which looks like and have the same last name like the candidate from the opposition 😂
Post #14223 48
AHAHAHAHAHA 😂
Post #14222 44
Nix Astreides 2%, wow.
But you now see the real “actually smart and successful Russians” support. Because they are emigrants. They had money, mind and balls to try their new life in another, actually more expensive place.
Post #14221 39
Nix Astreides In Seoul, 54% of citizens voted for the New People party — exit polls. At an overseas polling station in Seoul, 30% of citizens voted for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, 6% for the Liberal Democratic Party, 4% for the Greens, and 2% for United…
2%, wow.
Post #14220 41
In Seoul, 54% of citizens voted for the New People party — exit polls.

At an overseas polling station in Seoul, 30% of citizens voted for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, 6% for the Liberal Democratic Party, 4% for the Greens, and 2% for United Russia. Thirty-eight percent of voters refused to answer.
Post #14219 36
Nix Astreides Yet, it doesn’t really help them to become victims. So that’s why it’s important that if you are really indeed against this government, you actually do at least EVERYTHING POSSIBLE LEGALLY to destroy UR completely.
Otherwise you don’t have excuses. You are a silent supporter and don’t cry when all the world hates you.
It’s the truth.
Post #14218 36
Nix Astreides But you see why it’s not completely true when people say that Russians are innocent, that’s all the government. No, they ARE GUILTY. The thing is their guilt might be slightly to a lesser extent because everyone understands that many people are scared and…
Yet, it doesn’t really help them to become victims.
So that’s why it’s important that if you are really indeed against this government, you actually do at least EVERYTHING POSSIBLE LEGALLY to destroy UR completely.
Post #14217 35
Nix Astreides I also cannot stop wondering that people are ready to break the law for the government, but are not ready to break the law for themselves. 🙂 And yes, it’s literally the situation when everyone who, for example, throws in falsified votes indeed get administrative…
But you see why it’s not completely true when people say that Russians are innocent, that’s all the government.
No, they ARE GUILTY. The thing is their guilt might be slightly to a lesser extent because everyone understands that many people are scared and there are people who even do something against it.
Post #14216 33
Nix Astreides Remember I told you the point about legality in Russia? Everyone recognises the unspoken rules (well, only besides stupid ones). Yet you are not obligated to follow these rules, because there are no legal consequences you can get from it, even tho there are…
I also cannot stop wondering that people are ready to break the law for the government, but are not ready to break the law for themselves. 🙂
And yes, it’s literally the situation when everyone who, for example, throws in falsified votes indeed get administrative and even criminal cases. 🙂
The only thing is safer for them that usually judges are loyalist to the government, so those retards get less punishments, but you LITERALLY can go to prison for this, and it doesn’t scare them, while fucking breaking the law for themselves against the government scares the shit out of them. 🙂
How retarded it is…
Post #14215 29
Remember I told you the point about legality in Russia?
Everyone recognises the unspoken rules (well, only besides stupid ones).
Yet you are not obligated to follow these rules, because there are no legal consequences you can get from it, even tho there are unspoken “potentially fabricated cases” what can’t be really successfully managed against many people.
Those cases are targeted to single individuals, and this fabrication asks for a lot of secrecy and support in places what is not easy to achieve at all, because it’s illegal.
This means that actually everyone following these illegal rules for the government don’t only break the law, but also make immoral decisions.
That’s why I can’t stop wondering how so many people in Russia are so obedient, it simply doesn’t make so much sense that so many people are simply scared to go against.
But it’s true and even tho it’s very difficult to change anything in Russia with such a silent agreeability, you should also remember what you are really working with. They are criminals who hold power only by silent supporters in places. You always can use it in your favour.
Post #14214 34
Nix Astreides There is information that CPRF WINS in many districts in Russian parliamentary elections. It’s not yet definite that they get the majority in parliament, but it might be indeed, UR might not win even with mass falsifications.
I am interested to see if it indeed happens, what the Central Electoral Commision gonna do about it?
Even if they recognise elections invalid, it will not change the results of the next election afterwards.
But people will see that their vote is taken away and they are majority.
Post #14213 34
There is information that CPRF WINS in many districts in Russian parliamentary elections.
It’s not yet definite that they get the majority in parliament, but it might be indeed, UR might not win even with mass falsifications.
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