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The Art of Prediction The Art of Prediction @astreidesanalytics · 1.95K subscribers
Post #14232 36
Nix Astreides On Polymarket there is 8% chance that New People get the majority: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election
But Polymarket has always been a good predictor.
The problem is how are you certain that they will be able to draw so many votes? It worked previously because there was a still high enough support for UR.
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