Casual Puzzle: Has It Reached Its Ceiling, and Which Subgenre Still Has Room to Grow?

Casual Puzzle sits at the top of the mobile market with $8.7B in IAP revenue and 7.3B downloads in 2025, making it a natural target for developers searching for the next big opportunity 👀

However, looking at its major contributor, Match-3, which accounts for 58% of the market, we can see that its IAP revenue has hit a ceiling, with no meaningful ad revenue to cushion it. Monthly downloads have declined by more than 20%, and the subgenre remains dominated by a handful of long-time leaders such as Candy Crush Saga and Royal Match.

Blast, which accounts for less than 1% of the 2025 IAP market revenue, took a steep nosedive in 2023. Most of its former contenders never regained momentum with only Toon Blast continuing to grow solo.

But what about the evergreen Merge subgenre? Does it still hold promise for new entrants, or is it better to quit before starting? 🤔

Find out in our latest article, written in collaboration with Ahmetcan Demirel, CPO at Rotatelab and Product Advisor to Puzzle Teams ✨