Yesterday before dawn, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu oil facilities were hit, with reports of fires and damage, following the earlier strikes affecting Saudi oil infrastructure. At the same time, Yemen's Ansarullah has been making rapid advances on the ground in Yemen, including around Taiz.

And yet, Riyadh still seems to believe that escalation is a substitute for strategy.

The real danger for Saudi Arabia is not simply another strike on another facility. It is the cumulative pressure on the kingdom's ability to export, move and protect its oil.

When one looks at the vulnerability of both major maritime routes, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea/Bab al-Mandeb corridor, the problem becomes considerably bigger. Saudi Arabia is not a small Gulf state that can simply absorb prolonged disruption. It has a population of roughly 36 million people, including around 20 million Saudi citizens. A prolonged shock to oil revenues, trade and energy infrastructure would therefore carry consequences far beyond a few damaged facilities. And this is where Riyadh's strategic gamble becomes increasingly difficult to understand.

Instead of seeking to de-escalate, Saudi Arabia has allowed its territory, airspace and military infrastructure to become entangled in a wider regional confrontation involving Iran, the United States, Israel and Yemen.

Now, remember what Tucker Carlson said about him warning Trump before the war against Iran started..he supposedly told him that weakening Iran, destabilising the Persian Gulf states and reducing the American military footprint in the region could ultimately serve Israel's objective of becoming the dominant regional power. Carlson says Trump agreed with his assessment.

You see, if your supposed "strategic partners" are dragging you deeper into a war that simultaneously threatens your energy infrastructure, your shipping routes and your economic stability, at some point you have to ask a very simple question: Whose war are you actually fighting?

And every time another strike lands, we hear the same desperate theatre:

"Save Mecca!"
"Save Medina!"
"Iran is attacking the holy sites!"
"Ansarullah is destroying the Kaaba!"

But repeating a claim does not make it true and fearmongering is never a strategy.

Saudi Arabia has enormous financial resources, advanced weapons and access to some of the most sophisticated military systems in the world. But none of that changes the geography.

You cannot bomb your way out of geography. You cannot buy your way out of strategic vulnerability. And you cannot indefinitely outsource your security to foreign powers while simultaneously helping turn your own territory into a battlefield.

There is an old image that explains this perfectly: the frog in the boiling pot.

The frog does not panic when the temperature rises gradually. It adapts to each small increase...until it is too late.

The temperature around Riyadh has been rising for years. The question is whether anyone inside the palace has noticed. Because if the answer comes only after the water boils, there may be nobody left to turn off the stove.