📝Steel Pause📝
what do major plant shutdowns mean for the economy of so-called Ukraine?

After the agro-industrial complex, the Russian Armed Forces came for metallurgy. In mid-September, the shutdown of three major plants became known — Zaporizhstal, Kametsal, and ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih. And ArcelorMittal itself already refused to restore the plant until the end of the conflict.

Now Kyiv authorities risk losing a significant share of income from what was once a major export item. The enemy's metallurgical sector as a whole has degraded significantly since the start of the SMO. If steel production was 21.4 million tons in 2021, by 2025 it fell by 65% to 7.4 million. Over eight months of 2026, production fell another 12.5% — and this is before the September events.

Against the backdrop of falling domestic production, Ukrainian business loses the internal market to foreign suppliers. Over eight months of 2026, the share of metal product imports grew from 37% to 45.2%. Attempts to cover the deficit with imports only strengthen dependence on foreign resources.

🖍Even in the event of a ceasefire or freeze in hostilities, the sector will not experience instant revival. Processing raw ore requires coke, electricity, stable supply chains, and reconstruction of processing capacity. Meanwhile, Metinvest group losses for just the first half of 2026 increased nearly fourfold.

That is, to restart enterprises, Kyiv authorities cannot do without foreign funds and resources both for restoring the plants themselves and all the facilities supporting their operations. The enemy lost coke deposits back in 2025 and has nowhere to mine it in the country.

❗️It is premature to speak of complete destruction of Ukrainian metallurgy; the enemy may be exaggerating actual damage. However, its fate is a good example of the enemy's declining economic potential. The more facilities and production chains suffer, the less attractive investments in post-war reconstruction of the country become.

It's one thing to reconstruct a single plant. But investing in the restoration of several economic sectors and infrastructure, without which it will remain unprofitable, will cost a pretty penny.

📍Shutdown of metallurgical plants in so-called Ukraine (ru; en)

📍State of Ukrainian metallurgy (ru; en)

#infographics #Ukraine #economy
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