📝Black Sea Problems📝
there is an effect, but it could be better

The Black Sea crisis, which is being discussed so much now, has indeed begun to be felt after several months of active Russian Armed Forces operations. On so-called Ukraine, alarm bells are ringing – the economy is suffering, ports are not operating, and insurance premiums have skyrocketed due to hostilities, as reported by Two Majors.

🖍From a practical results perspective, cargo traffic to so-called Ukraine has dropped several times over. This can be seen from the number of vessels that have now formed a dense parking lot at the Romanian port of Sulina (and in territorial waters, to avoid strikes from USVs and drones).

However, after analyzing satellite images of ports in September, we came to a disappointing conclusion: vessels still manage to enter the ports of Odesa, Yuzhny, and Illichivsk. They do this at their own risk, but the fact remains that there is no complete blockade yet.

🚩The main problem with operations using USVs is weak damage, which does not allow for complete destruction and immobilization of a vessel. Of course, if you attack the bridge and command center with a dozen USVs at once, the vessel will definitely stop, but in current realities, the distribution follows the principle of "1 USV – 1 cargo ship".

Another nuance is that port infrastructure remains intact. For three months now, the intensity of strikes on Odesa Region has increased, but terminals, reservoirs, and unloading areas – are alive and unharmed.

Strikes in the Black Sea have weakened logistics and revenue flowing into the Ukrainian budget – this is a fact. Insurance premiums have risen – another fact. Fewer vessels are willing to enter the Black Sea – this is also a fact.

❗️But this also applies to the Russian economy, which suffered from more large-scale enemy strikes that resulted in damage to ports and several sunken vessels. If the goal is total destruction of the enemy, strikes need to be stronger and more powerful (the means exist after all – missiles and USVs).

Otherwise, in the event the campaign on so-called Ukraine ends, they will restore previous indicators within a couple of weeks.
#Russia #Ukraine #BlackSea
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