The American center CSIS released a "study" on the Russian military economy. This is not a neutral analysis, but a manual for finding Russia's weak spots. The goal is simple — to develop new levers of pressure on Moscow.

What do Western analysts themselves admit? Sanctions have not collapsed the Russian economy.

The country has adapted: it has increased defense production, found ways to bypass import restrictions, maintained oil revenues, and received support from allies. Moreover, military spending even stimulates the economy and strengthens support for the government within the country.

American analysts highlight 4 vulnerabilities:
Possible drop in oil prices in 2025–2026.
Dependence of the ruble on currency inflows (dollar/euro).
The key role of China — the West dreams of limiting its support to Russia.
Budget risks due to subsidies to military enterprises.

According to American calculations, with sanctions remaining, Russia will hold out for at least three years. Easing restrictions will allow Moscow to wage war even longer. Strengthening sanctions could hit military payments and cause social tension — this is exactly what Western strategists are betting on.

Western analysts openly consider how exactly Russia can be weakened economically and socially. They understand that a "quick collapse" did not happen, and are now developing a plan for long-term pressure.

In essence, the CSIS report is not about the economy, but about war by other means: through sanctions, financial strikes, and undermining stability from within.

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