I don’t have a great read on macro but it’s hard not to be optimistic here.

Hikes are priced at 90%. Meaning that there’s little downside left unless they come out with a bearish press conference.

The main reason is due to Bessent drawing a line in the sand saying the 30y will not stay above $5. So far it’s remained above for around 30 days now. Bonds are the foundation of the market, everything crumbles if they spiral.

There is a reasonable chance they don’t hike but it would mean extreme liquidity support buyback operation. As far as Trumps concerned he couldn’t care less as long as prices are up, the fed is the one who’s to blame and holds the keys. Doubt they’re willing to let the economy spiral.

Anthropic IPO coming up in the next month or so. Trump was on the frontlines leading up to SpaceX IPO to ensure prices were strong, it’s safe to assume he’ll want the same for Anthropic as his goal is to win the AI race vs china. Dario’s become the boy who cried wolf as an attempt to gain mindshare like he does with every new model. Thankfully he’s being massed called out on it this time and everyone’s sick of his bs. On a side note GPT 6 (Astra) looks pretty cracked.

Regarding onchain, Vlad has shown he’s willing to step in to continually keep the spark alive for RH eco. At this stage it feels like a safe bet that he’ll do the same that he did with cashcat and pons as for long xyz. Long is the greatest platform to drive novelty and liquidity acquisition for tokenized equities, it’s a matter of time before it gets the green light from him, especially with how Nates maneuvering the dev work.

Surprised how well Stonks is holding up. I do like the reflections from fees as a narrative considering it needs to battle Long’s liquidity moat, very Solana esque. While I do see Long being the mid/long term winning at this stage, it’s good there’s competition and a competent team that can provide a different environment. It doesn’t always seem like a positive as token vamps and trying to time narrative rotations between platforms is the equivalent of rubbing your eyes with sandpaper.

Overall onchain is still in a decent spot. The last 10 or so days has been pretty damaging if you went spray and pray with eco coins. Conviction trades are much better to sit in and wait for validation/invalidation. Volume chasing has been enough to drive gods strongest soldier insane.

Gun to my head onchain rebounds sometime in the next 3-5 days. FOMC becomes a positive price catalyst. Don’t think we break 82k on BTC just yet, my guess is a retest back to 82k before ranging again. Vlad adds a stamp or two on the Long eco and gives a helping hand to increase volume. Stonks continues to take a breather and consolidate, think AI bottoms first then Stonk plays catch up a few days later.