Trissy's Edge

Issues with Stonk Fun

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/2102364902627438758?s=20

Low cap gamble.

My thesis is on Fomo.

Be mindful of slippage and don't eat 25% being a one clip top blast chad like myself to make the chart look funny.

Btc gunning for it.

We’ve broken 82k with confidence and finally entered a new bull regime. For the technical traders we also closed above the 50 week SMA which has been a strong signal for leaving the bear market.

Onchain stalled a bit due to the SEC’s “Innovation Exemption” shortly after the FOMC on Thursday last week.

Tldr: Tokenized Securities Venues (TSVs) run permissioned AMM/liquidity pools for tokenized NMS stocks without registering as exchanges. Certain liquidity providers also get a dealer exemption. It is not a free for all. The conditions are:

• Permissioned access (not open DeFi)
• Tokens must confer the same rights as the real stock (dividends, voting), not synthetics or price linked wrappers
• Symbol and volume caps
• Public notices, auditable smart contracts on a public chain
• Halt trading if the listed stock is halted

Any listed NMS stock can be used if the token meets the rights test. The venue files public notice, there is no individual ticker SEC sign off.

For third party tokenized versions, the TSV must give the company 30 days written notice. If the issuer objects in writing, that token cannot trade on that TSV under the exemption.

Long xyz’s asset structering is an ERC 20 debt security issued by Robinhood Assets (Jersey) Ltd. It’s backed 1:1 by a share held in custody, with price and dividends reflected onchain via an adjustable multiplier.

Stonkfuns asset structering is xStocks which are SPL tokens on Solana that are each 1:1 collateralized by a real U.S share held by a regulated custodian. Like Robinhood’s tokens, xStocks give only price exposure, holders get no equity votes or dividends on chain.

Vlad must of got early wind of this change from the SEC as he was mentioning in kind redemption with shares for 1:1 voting rights 2 days before the innovation exemption. Dividend stocks have been upgraded to automatically distribute rewards on ex dividend date as opposed to weeks later by RH.

Sol’s xStocks give only price exposure, holders get no equity votes or dividends on chain. The AMM pool holds these wrapped tokens (or any chosen crypto/stablecoin), not the underlying share certificates. So I think like Vlad has done, we’ll see an announcement from Toly/xStocks regarding their “dealers exemption” for providing liquidity and obtaining voting rights + dividends.

The dealer exemption only covers liquidity providers inside a qualifying Tokenized Securities Venue, a U.S person, permissioned AMM that meets notice, volume and halt rules. Solana xStock trading is mostly permissionless DEX/launchpad flow (Raydium, Jupiter, StonkFun). They can keep operating offshore for non U.S. users under their existing foreign code, but this won't immediately protect from native legalities. (similar to hyperliquid)

This is why Stonks has been the better performing launchpad since Thursday as they’re mostly crypto pairing based as opposed to Long’s equities. Since Stonk has been performing well and has mindshare, I’m expecting to see more performing stock pairings as the best they’ve had is GP paired to gold. Clarification to the dealers exemption will help a lot with this as we know where Vlad/Nate stand.

Most traders still seem like they’re in uncertainty mode with stock pairings. As far as I’m concerned it’s a big green flag that the SEC have tried to fast track but added the “permissioned” clause so things don’t get too out of hand like they tend to do onchain.

Once BTC slows down from this initial leg I think onchain goes nuts, mainly returning to stock pairing coins. This is where it can get really interesting for a novel utility meta now we’ve broken the bear shackles (codec coded).

Next targets: 90k Btc, 3k Eth, 140 Sol

deposited some of my $CODEC that i have been holding since launch onto fomo.

its time.

coded.

$TILCAYO holding well despite the vamp.

Leap and some fnf fags made a vamp called “Tigrino” which is what the type of cat the animal reserve thought Tilcayo was, except it ended up being its own species.

The cat was called Tilcayo by the family who found and looked after it. When the researchers declared it was a new species, they decided to keep its family name (Leopardus Tilcayo) as it had been living with them for several years.

Tilcayo is the most viral search name by far, its what all the locals called the kitten and name of species.

Doge and Shiba are the same. Kabosu is the name of Doge, but everyone still calls it Doge.

Normally I abandon after the first pump when there’s vamps and cba dealing with the headache, although I genuinely think this is a 8 fig narrative and we probably would of been close to it by now if it wasn’t for the vamp.

Ive increased my bag, the virality, fact it’s on Pump while they haven’t had a cat runner, demand for cat coins and narrative of being the first cat species found in 100+ years is too good.

Shoutout Eric who’s been buying and burning supply plus doing the website and leading the CTO. There’s a really strong cult starting to form around the coin since the vamp is so bs. I’ll keep supporting as much as I can.

Onchain and majors bouncing across the board.

Everything played out as expected. Still saw quite a few 8 fig runners during the downtime like Musebook, Allinu, Standard, Paid etc.

Tried scalping BTC at 76.2k if you saw my post before I deleted it. Had the right thesis and execution but went too hard on leverage pre FOMC when there was clearly going to be volatility either way. Should of been more patient and taking the slower approach. Would have been up a solid amount.

U.S is now allowing tokenized equities and Trump’s forcing everyone’s hand. Great to see for our Long and Stonks bags, clearly the defining meta for the coming months.

Circle’s Arc chain has been a massive flop, shows what happens when you don’t have crypto natives on your team.

Stonks and AI going head to head and looking ready to break out and leg higher. Think it’s time for wave 3 for both platforms. Will cover some tokens in the coming days and where I think attention might go.

PA the past 2-3 days has been the most important PA of the past two weeks. We reached a climax with negative events and bearish outlook. Now they’re rebounding, large caps/strong eco coins are up 20-50% and the strength here is what you what to be paying the most attention to. Winners will keep winning for the coming week imo.

Good entry on $TILCAYO here at 1.3 mil as well. Some rats are trying to vamp with a different name as usual. Still think this is a great narrative.

Definitely worth being locked in over the weekend with what we’re seeing atm. Godspeed.

I'm on Fomo now

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/2100930574747861417?s=20

I really like $TILCAYO at 1.6 mil

First new cat species found in 100+ years at the start of the bull run.

Already had Cashcat run on RH, Zcat run on stocks, now this is launched on Pump and gives them a chance to have a cat runner as well.

Perfectly fits the animal thesis and already going viral. Sent it to a couple normie female friends and they were super excited.

Think it’s asymmetric as viral coins haven’t done as well recently, also onchain been bad the past week with Pump getting negative sentiment due to losing mindshare from RH, Stonks and Fomo. We’re starting to see bounces across the board, pump starting to put in a reversal as well.

Only reason I don’t see this playing out is due to the bundle or a KOL vamp.

We're about to make a lot of money again (easy mode)

This is going to sound counter productive but I’ve actually been taking a more relaxed approach to the market and research to increase my output/edge.

One thing I’ve noticed is I’m very conscious of my time. Every hour that ticks by is a mental note jotted down by my brain which asks “was that hour productive”, “did you achieve what you wanted to achieve”, “where’s the result”. If I can’t answer those questions confidently, then I go into a semi anxious subconscious state.

I continue watching the hours pass during the day. Gc’s not read, twitter not caught up on, haven’t dd’d the 5 runners of the day, haven’t done a write up/post which gives my analysis on the market etc.

It’s a horrible feeling and not only does it make you counter productive, it ruins your quality of life as you’re sitting there wishing you were doing more when you could be enjoying something else.

You won’t find many bigger advocates for maxing out your screen time and sitting in front of your computer 16 hours a day if you genuinely want to reach your goals. However that’s not something you can just jump into with quality output unless you’re a freak.

If I’m working then I want my work to be at 100% capacity, if im in a semi anxious state then my focus is all over the place and more importantly, I’m not enjoying what I’m doing. This causes me to miss the small details which separates the top 1% from everyone else.

Since my training takes around 3 hours and is fairly extreme, it drains a lot of my energy during the morning. One of my favourite ways to get energy back is to literally lay in bed until I actually want to work.

Say I come back from gym, shower, eat, rush to the computer to squeeze an extra hour in, my mind is in a foggy flight or fight state. I’ve found when I come back and recharge my battery, relax and get to a point where my laziness drives action, it consistently lets me reenter my work with a fresh perspective and clear mind.

I do allow myself to go on my phone and check notifications and dexscreener etc, however the best method I’ve found is to lay/sit with my own thoughts or fall into a light sleep. Sometimes all I’ll need is 20-30 mins, sometimes 2 hours.

Even though the fomo of missing out on the next runner can be crippling, my goal is to have the best clarity for decisions, research and overall use with my time during the day. I’d rather have 5 hours of work where I’m fully optimised as opposed to 9 hours that are at 50%.

This is the secret to living a balanced life while being a trader. There will be periods where you need to throw all your usual health protocols out the window due to the markets being so hot, but until then, you need to find hacks which let you operate with higher brain functionality.

Eventually as you increase your output you naturally gain momentum. You can do difficult non crypto tasks like training, sports, dealing with IRL errands that distract/take energy away while still being fully switched on at all times.

Like everything, it’s a gradual build up and a muscle you need to train. Be aware of the small things that give/take energy from you. Write them down, note the specific details that you find consistency with, iterate, improve and repeat.

$CODEC coded.

You probably thought you weren’t going to hear that phrase come from me again. Well neither did I.

So whats changed?

3 months ago when I was resparking my curiosity from a trading hiatus, I decided to go down the robotics rabbit hole to see how the space had progressed. To my surprise the industry had multiplied in a very short timeframe, many of my theses from a year ago have come true and are rapidly accelerating.

Ever since I’ve been robotics pilled again. However I wasn’t going to risk my reputation and been slowly digging through all the new architectures and development.

Funnily enough the Codec team reached out and we were both onboard with how we viewed the industry evolving. Their new products are positioned for a key unlock in bottlenecks which shouldn’t take much longer to solve at this rate of development.

It’s become an anomaly for onchain traders to have a thesis that lasts more than a week. Bullposting is a dying art and I think there’s a big gap to fill for traders who genuinely believe in products long term.

In the post I also address why I suddenly left without communication last time.

Super excited to get my feet wet on research + writing and where the most interesting experiments are taking place. Like many over the bear, I lost a bit of passion towards my craft. Having something to wake up to everyday with a focus and clear mind is the most valuable asset you can have.

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/2100228503644098949?s=20

Long XYZ vs StonkFun

Was comparing technical features of the two platforms and decided to turn it into a write up so it's easier to understand the nuances between both products.

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/2099886235070366202?s=20

I don’t have a great read on macro but it’s hard not to be optimistic here.

Hikes are priced at 90%. Meaning that there’s little downside left unless they come out with a bearish press conference.

The main reason is due to Bessent drawing a line in the sand saying the 30y will not stay above $5. So far it’s remained above for around 30 days now. Bonds are the foundation of the market, everything crumbles if they spiral.

There is a reasonable chance they don’t hike but it would mean extreme liquidity support buyback operation. As far as Trumps concerned he couldn’t care less as long as prices are up, the fed is the one who’s to blame and holds the keys. Doubt they’re willing to let the economy spiral.

Anthropic IPO coming up in the next month or so. Trump was on the frontlines leading up to SpaceX IPO to ensure prices were strong, it’s safe to assume he’ll want the same for Anthropic as his goal is to win the AI race vs china. Dario’s become the boy who cried wolf as an attempt to gain mindshare like he does with every new model. Thankfully he’s being massed called out on it this time and everyone’s sick of his bs. On a side note GPT 6 (Astra) looks pretty cracked.

Regarding onchain, Vlad has shown he’s willing to step in to continually keep the spark alive for RH eco. At this stage it feels like a safe bet that he’ll do the same that he did with cashcat and pons as for long xyz. Long is the greatest platform to drive novelty and liquidity acquisition for tokenized equities, it’s a matter of time before it gets the green light from him, especially with how Nates maneuvering the dev work.

Surprised how well Stonks is holding up. I do like the reflections from fees as a narrative considering it needs to battle Long’s liquidity moat, very Solana esque. While I do see Long being the mid/long term winning at this stage, it’s good there’s competition and a competent team that can provide a different environment. It doesn’t always seem like a positive as token vamps and trying to time narrative rotations between platforms is the equivalent of rubbing your eyes with sandpaper.

Overall onchain is still in a decent spot. The last 10 or so days has been pretty damaging if you went spray and pray with eco coins. Conviction trades are much better to sit in and wait for validation/invalidation. Volume chasing has been enough to drive gods strongest soldier insane.

Gun to my head onchain rebounds sometime in the next 3-5 days. FOMC becomes a positive price catalyst. Don’t think we break 82k on BTC just yet, my guess is a retest back to 82k before ranging again. Vlad adds a stamp or two on the Long eco and gives a helping hand to increase volume. Stonks continues to take a breather and consolidate, think AI bottoms first then Stonk plays catch up a few days later.

My thoughts and favourite Long xyz trades

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/2099123462120042992?s=20

Long xyz is the ai16z of this meta

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/2098767809698472099?s=20

The dominate meta for the upcoming bull

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/2097238819406041275?s=20

Sol eco bouncing back

$STONK (125 mil) platform catching a massive bid. Ngl I feel a bit retarded for not seeing this trade as It was so obvious in hindsight once RH finally corrected. Was mentioning for a while how I see coins on Sol having strong rotations once RH pulls back and this was the perfect counter trade.

$ZCAT (90 mil) generating most of the demand which is an anonymous cat pairing to Zec. Ansem bullposting it pretty hard and bringing mindshare back to Sol in the midst of a green chain correction. Zec has continued being one of the leading coins off the bottom of BTC’s recovery along with hype, lit, pump etc. Although I’m not overly bullish on the narrative and see it as a bit stale/forced, maybe I’m off on that idea but doesn’t overly excite me.

$CTO (7 mil) feels the most unique Stonk coin into penny stocks and I still have my bag. Zcat obviously being reflexive because of Zec’s performance but CTO feels the most novel out of the stonk coins and has the most upside potential if the underlying stock catches wind. The CEO has been actively bullposting the ideology and accumulating the coin himself. This weekend could get interesting as the stock market is closed until Tuesday. Zec is a 20 bil coin, Vida is a 40 mil stock. The more this coin develops, the more other stock runners fall, the more bullish I get.

$AGI (5 mil) is another one with good memetics and plays into ai16z/ai140kg from ai szn. Both coins I performed very well on and sad I missed this. Not overly novel and been done multiple times so I struggle to see it out performing other coins over a week time horizon.

$BUTTHOLE (3 mil) was the OG runner that sparked the Stonks platform. We’ve seen first movers performing now there’s more volume and conviction on trade ideas. Honestly I could see this performing well as a non consensus trade despite it being relatively simple, kind of like how AI was the first mover for Long and went through a longer distribution phase before sending.

Obviously RH still holds the premium as Solana doesn’t have a native exchange which becomes a future catalyst for coins. Trying to map out a thesis for why Stonk/Sol meme stocks would outperform RH is quite hard. Seeing how fast price rerates with a successful coin like Zcat is impressive to see, if we saw a novel coin like CTO perform it would also give traders greater confidence due to multiple narratives performing at once.

Pump has also been put into a precarious position as they’re fighting both Fomo and RH for mindshare and liquidity. Now Stonk has entered the picture on their native chain, they’ll be forced to incentivised buybacks on meme stocks for their platform. Even still I think it’s a decent long at 0.004, ideally a genny long would be from 0.0033. Sol is in price discovery until 145 and Ansem is holding a strong accumulation range. They’ve turned 100% of revenue to token buybacks and call out rewards.

I see RH dominating for the coming months but Sol will offer the contender position and be a push pull dynamic between rotations.

Some thoughts for onchain

$MARSCOIN (170 mil) - just had its binance spot listing. First spot listing since binance life which got sent to 800 mil. Immediate reaction is it’s currently underpriced, although there is a lot of uPNL that will probably need to get shifted through and I don’t expect them to immediately crime it. I am very interested in scalping it as a lev long play in the coming days and will be looking for entry. Interesting to see utility paired with gme performing even better than marscoin based off the CZ tweet, not sure how real the volume is on it but if it’s remotely real it’s pretty insane. Don’t have much thoughts on that token.

$MEME (60 mil) - today’s 9 fig juicer. The lore is that the coin was made as a memecoin paired against AMC which is considered a meme/boomer company. The CEO came out and was very vocal that he doesn’t like the idea and think it should be illegal as tokenized stocks are “synthetic assets”. Vlad then responded whats the concern and recently tweet they stand behind stock tokens. If the token can make AMC rally despite pissing off the CEO, it’ll make for a very viral case and will bring a lot of new eyes and fuel this penny stock/dead company flywheel narrative even further. Overall this token performing and growing mindshare is +ev for those of us playing the RH trenches and I hope it goes higher with normie virality. Expecting a bounce at 50-60 mil otherwise doesn’t look good.

$BONER (40 mil) - the fartcoin of robinhood. I do really like this coin and think the narrative is great. However my concern is that its 1) a bit too much of a resemblance to fartcoin even though it does have some pretty unique variables and 2) it’s a little bit vulgar compared to the other main runners we’ve seen. Something that’s important to consider with memetics is how included can every be? Can you show a kid and they’ll smile? Can you show your gf and she thinks it’s funny? Simple variables which I think are quite important when determining big runners. Ansem is obviously different and the outlier due to influence. Memetic wise it’s my favourite meme but for the points I mentioned above it’s difficult to see if it continues growing (no pun intended). Endorsement from HIMs CEO would go a long way (no pun intended again).

$FONE (10 mil) - the WIF of social trading apps. Similar to Boner where I really like the narrative, except it resembles WIF a bit too much to give myself high conviction. Boner feels more unique narrative wise when comparing to its alpha assets. Fone represents the mascot for social trading this cycle, lots of emphasis is placed on fomo/pump criming the token since it’s a perfect representation, never great to bank your thesis on that. When Sol gets its moment after RH has its first flush out, I would expect this to be one of the first tokens that bounce. I’m interested to play it depending on the strength and rotations I see.

When hunting the next 9 fig cultural juicer, novelty is almost just as important as memetics. Having something to compare it to will always reduce the roof and potential mindshare. Issue is we’ve speed ran nearly every idea and token. The memefication of tokenized stocks and finding creative ways to leverage them will continue to dominate for some time like I’ve been mentioning.

If MEME can’t hold up over the weekend then I would expect some type of pull back. Not trying to be bearish but we’ve had pristine conditions and what all of us could have only dreamed of the past year. If multiple runners with high 8/low 9 figs in volume fall, then that’s your bat signal to dial down the risk. Bull signs are if BTC can break 82k and/or Meme sending, then it’s game on over the weekend.

I’m still very much interested in novel utility/meme plays and believe we broke an extremely important threshold this past week. Regardless of what BTC does, onchain hasn’t felt this back since AI szn while being near the bottom of the cycle.

$CTO making a comeback.

Jinqian ended up rugging due to the token not being properly paired with the underlying stock. We got to see how much demand there was for the penny stocks narrative with high mindshare, topped out around 60 mil with 100 mil in volume. Betting on a Chinese company also felt increasingly risky.

Lyle, the CEO of Vida (underlying stock) has come out and publicly support + accumulated 0.5% of the coin so far. He’s also said that he’s pro crypto and been around the block. Meaning he’s the first CEO to endorse and effectively bullpost a meme/stock pair while being one of the first tokens to launch with this narrative.

Sol team is engaging with the CEO. Plenty of chances for virality. Most important thing to watch is how the stock price is correlating to the memecoin pairing. All we need is one of these coins to properly align a system to set the standard.

Issue is liquidity still being horrible so entries are wicking the chart hard. Hopefully MM’s start arbing more efficiently and we get tighter ranges.

Still holding my full bag and willing to gamble on the possibility of this being the first penny stock runner. Not super high conviction but one of those narratives worth trying with small size to test a new thesis and see where potential downfalls will come from future narratives.

$JINQIAN seems like the first real penny stock so far.

Was away from desk and didn’t manage to catch the small dip at the start.

Not a ton of info yet other than the company being valued around 5 mil, stock has done over 3x but should be up a lot more considering the volume and price.

It’s a reverse DAT and had warnings from Nasdaq that its price was close to delisting due to low volume/share price.

Hurts to miss it as it was the exact narrative I was looking for, wasn’t much time to get entry and seemed fairly crimed with how hard it moved + volume.

Important to see how this plays out and worth monitoring the LPs and fees to see how it’s affecting stock price.