Threading on the Edge

some thoughts on arc before public mainnet:

arc is still private, yet ~$30m USDC is already onchain and tokens are already trading at multi-million dollar valuations.

that means public mainnet isn’t a fair starting line already filled with market insiders have had weeks to position in.

tokens are already trading at multi-million dollar valuations before public mainnet. the biggest token is ~$2.8m mcap with only ~$114k liquidity. the top 10 collectively have roughly ~$377k of real USDC liquidity behind them.

same with bridges, weeks ago people paid $57 to get $1 onto @arc and still we are seeing people paying a 50-80% premium for illiquid wrapped assets just to get in early makes no sense.

this doesnt make sense economically to me because, buying $1 of deployable capital for ~$2 means needing roughly a 2x just to overcome the premium before considering the token trade itself. essentially, the whole ecosystem is priced at 2x of current valuations.

it was obvious that $LONG rugged because the tokenized stocks there are all fake mispresentations, and you should exercise caution when you see these

all these leads up to our thesis on why @arcapefun isn’t launching early.

we prefer a community first approach and a launch once public mainnet opens makes the fairest sense, so everyone gets access on the same playing field.

your choice: win with everyone else or a feeder for the insiders

shipping more, stay tuned

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2099561102275404092

Arc mainnet goes live September 16th.

Most people will focus on Circle, USDC, BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Aave, Morpho and the institutional narrative.

Personally, i will be looking at something slightly different, 👇

1. Where does the first wave of retail liquidity go?

2. Why?

https://x.com/NobleIrons7de/status/2099478037200814150

well, that @arc launchpad ranking aged fast 😭

since my first post went live, 10+ new launchpads have appeared in my notifications

i went through every one, did more DD and spoke directly with several dev teams

a few are run by solo devs, but they’ve been extremely active and are shipping upgrades fast

https://x.com/Nick_Researcher/status/2099432029838590034

two insane fomo stats:

- september revenue already surpassed all of august. it is september 14.
- on track to distribute $5m in referral fees this month

consumer crypto is a ridiculous business

https://x.com/0xNairolf/status/2099402418236596249

Back on @ponsdotfamily, we’ve watched a bunch of projects get rinsed off RHC over the last week, but if anything it’s reinforcing my view.

Pons is basically a leveraged bet on RH Chain throughput, more than just the biggest launchpad sitting on RHC.

And it’s worth factoring in that Circle’s Arc Public mainnet goes live in two days. Another fresh narrative could easily pull speculative liquidity away from RH, the same way SOL did last week.

That said, I doubt it reaches anything like RHC’s hype, most of what’s coming over there looks like launchpads remixing LONG, Stonk, or PONS with a new coat of paint.

Also keep in mind memecoin volume comes in waves, and it feels like we’re entering the second phase: utility-leaning launches on RHC through Pons. A ton of issuance still funnels through Pons, and it keeps cranking out the most “real” graduates.

That said, if daily protocol revenue slides to ~$200–300k and sticks, the multiple will re-rate up, the buyback bid gets thinner, and that likely bleeds through to $PONS too.

However, Pons is no longer only the RH version of Pump.

It is becoming the issuance venue for a hybrid product, meme + tokenized equity + Utilities, that other chains cannot copy without the same RWA stack.

https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/2099371614471422418

Sharing one of my latest acquisition experiments (influencer marketing)

Spoiler: This one has mixed data signals; I wouldn’t call it either a loss or a win.

Data ↓

https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/2099396735609213161

>been away sometime focusing on IRL

>come back to have a bit of a break, and TL genuinely looks like its got its spirit back

>after re-connecting with some degens here & IRL, cant believe what im seeing

>just want to write this because i see a lot of guys stuck in this slave mentality of focusing TOO much on the wrong areas

>and im writing this cause i only been back 1.5 weeks and yeah i missed stonk, pons etc but already had an amazing run and it was just by keeping it simple, i wasnt even stressed and i barely knew what was going on in the market

>probably the most common scenario i saw is when guys think they missed a "runner" when its at 3-5m mc
so they dont bid, my brotha in christ running 3-5m to 20m + is a better trade than sitting in the pits of the trenches chasing sub 500k dogshit with toothpicks holding your eyelids open

>if you see wallet at 10m and constant threads its linked to RH deploying, you bid that shit

>if you see dev of GMX deploy on RH you fucking bid that shit, i saw it at 15m ? Was i first no ? did it matter, fuck no

>im not in any groups since back, everything i see is on the TL, quick check of sentiment and confluence in fundamentals and ape

>i see dev of AIXBT deploy on robinhood, i fucking bid that shit, again wasnt first, wasnt early, still bidded and still in profit

>stop focusing on the wrong things, stop gambling, bet to win

>clear narrative, clear runners

>you see TVL climbing in an undervalued defi protocol, you bid that shit

>betas are ok at times but it needs to make sense or improve the current economics / tech

>point in case stonk <> ember
( i personally didnt touch that shit because i got emotional about it and it cost me )

>me personally i never touch the 3rd, 4th, 5th horse, if you were around for agentic frameworks etc youd know how dog shit all that went

>to be brutally honest this entire RWA/defi narrative doesnt really excite me that much, i hope we can go to another level, it feels like a weirder or worse agentic arc,
but i do agree RWAmeme stocks is a step forward in the right direction in a sense

>anyway, never get emotional about it, just play what youre seeing and feeling, never get emotional to certain outcomes, different chains, or groups, as soon as you start doing that you start missing out, not necessarily losing but definitely missing out

>stay open minded and dont get caught up in other peoples opinions

>as always, dont need to play every single move either, its ok to just watch, take notes and watch things unfold until you see a clear winner

>set your own parameters and criteria before it deserves a bid, and dont bid until you see something that ticks all those boxes

>im not even using or building any AI tools/dashboards/bots atm, but i think this is absolutely 1000% paramount moving forward, so if anyone has anything interesting send it my way, would love to connect

>in regards to narratives, loving that privacy is making a run, privacy the most important tek for the future, good to see inference markets getting love too, we all know and have always said data/credits access to tools etc would be the new oil and it is

>will send some % of profits to ARC and play for sure, ofcourse will look for the top meme, dex/liquidity and launchpad

>dont care about the pvp, not following any fomo shit, just bidding on multiple confluence straight off the TL by following the right people and doing some basic research

>genuinely think its RH & sol szn, sure more things will pop up, monitoring

>i dont know who needs to read this but brotha get your ass out that slave mentality shit, hit some safe X's with medium size, if you have enough time ofcourse allocate to pits of trenches in the GC but mann dont overcomplicate it

>think btc corrects a bit before next leg up and hopefully we begin ascend for the next 12-24 months, many nukes along the way but hopefully bottom is in and 100 year cycle theory can resume

>sorry to disappear then just come back but will explain story and why later, and no, technically, i dont need to be here, i just genuinely missed this place and gratefully i have the time to be back

>the humour, the people, the crime, the losses, the wins, the vaporware

>many many good projects around for this little zzzycle, lets cook

https://x.com/tombxbt/status/2099132148708254102

How to build a full game with Blender and GPT 5.6 Astra (not just a demo)

https://x.com/builtbysketch/status/2098773631249854478

we’ve been building the future top launchpad on arc for a few weeks now.

live on mainnet from day 1. as soon as it's out, you'll be able to pair with every stock token on arc.

we worked hard to make it super customizable, creators can split the fees between buyback and burn, holders and creators.

we worked hard and we'll keep working hard.

follow @arcapefun for more updates.

https://x.com/Arcapefun/status/2098831944645857467

how to get an actual edge against 99% users on fomo

everybody already has guard, scan, api, gmgn, axiom

if you are still getting farmed, use these below

https://x.com/TheMaran/status/2098343345810772387

Arc is bringing a $USDC-native Layer 1 to market, with mainnet scheduled for September 16.

With 244M testnet transactions and $222M raised, @arc enters mainnet with strong early momentum.

Here’s a good list of projects to keep an eye on.

https://x.com/Mars_DeFi/status/2098395193179607347

i’ve never made money buying immediately after a callout i see on FOMO or Pumpfun app.. no matter who’s calling it

what has always worked for me is:

- if i like a coin, i add it to my watchlist first
- i wait for the initial dump and check whether the callers are holding or selling
- i watch who’s still doing the bag work once the excitement wears off
- i let it go through a couple of ugly corrections, sometimes 50–60% or even 70 - 80%, and see whether buyers keep coming back
- if it keeps recovering and people are still showing up, i look for an entry on the next dip

https://x.com/Axel_bitblaze69/status/2098311436766523672

Welcome to Hotel F*cking California, TradFi

https://x.com/redphone/status/2098263466632957953

my @arc trenches thesis

4 weeks ago, people were reportedly paying $57 for 1 USDC on Arc. Today, the premium is still ~200%.

on paper, that’s terrible risk reward. paying $2 for $1 of deployable capital means you effectively need a 2x just to offset the premium once USDC rates normalizes.

but the premium is also the alpha because arc has an access problem

despite heavily constrained liquidity, an entire speculative stack is already forming:

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2098338464840417515

This cycle actually feels pretty simple vs the last one

Capital is concentrated like a barbell
> Memes & Speculation on the left
> Onchain AI, DeFi, RWA, Payments on the right

2 things happen
1. Launchpads & DEXs capture value from trenching activity
2. AI, DeFi, RWA, Payments/Neobanks extend crypto moat outside of CT

And you know what the best thing is?

10/10 literally cleansed most teams out of the industry

The only ones left are teams that either
> they have found PMF + whose tokens haven't really re-rated
> OR they're on the verge of PMF + tokens at rock bottom price

It's a good time to be investing

https://x.com/0xJeff/status/2098366103130906628

Can You 'FOMO' A Trading Crowd?

https://x.com/thelearningpill/status/2097276365494206572

Definitely contrarian, but constructive on PUMP at these levels.

Hard to condense the thesis, but with a deeply entrenched business (revenue in SOL at ATHs) + a consumer layer up 5.6x, while buying back 17% of circ supply a year with muted insider sales, PUMP is cheap at 2.8x sales.

IMO it's a highly reflexive asset too few people are positioned for if we get another period of prolonged risk-on (pre Pons/Stonk it was leading the market).

To illustrate, because Pump has since added PumpSwap and the consumer layer, a return to ATH launchpad activity puts Pump at $280M/month.

Suggest reading the full report for our detailed thoughts and outlook.

https://x.com/shaundadevens/status/2098103821201281220

Add $AERO to this list.

Just as Robinhood's distribution played a big part in their ability to attract users, so will Coinbase on Base.

The leading beneficiary of stock-based activity will be
@aeroxyz.

https://x.com/Flowslikeosmo/status/2098109002530058255

The latest DeFi developments:

Aave App, Aave’s savings mobile app, became available in early access

Pendle launched tokenized stock dividends, enabling to trade dividend yield on-chain

Jupiter announced Jupiter Vaults - yield strategies managed by experts

Trade[XYZ] launched its first outcome markets

Ethereum announced plans to enable paying gas fees with stablecoins in 2027

LayerZero introduced Otter - a new MEV-resilient AMM mechanism

Morpho Midnight expanded to Ethereum

South Korea committed to bringing its stock market on-chain

Solana released Payment Channels, which can process 1 million payments per second

Trezor said its third-party e-mail provider has been breached

Ethena's fee switch proposal has passed

Etherscan released Flow, a visual transaction tracing tool

Uniswap Labs purchased PONS token for long-term alignment

Polymarket launched Polymarket perps

Kraken deployed a Hyperliquid validator on mainnet

I hope you found this recap helpful!

https://x.com/TheDeFinvestor/status/2098048180109676940