Threading on the Edge

i like to add on some of my analysis to $MORHO on top of what @Nick_Researcher shared

i believe in the lending sector @Morpho is the highest-conviction lending play right now:
- it may not the biggest, but it's the fastest-improving on the metrics for token repricing
- its shown strength in fee velocity, product innovation, and capital efficiency.

here is my bullish case:
- Morpho is beating @aave on efficiency and momentum
- $AAVE is losing its dominance as @bgdlabs and @chaoslabs announced departure
- Morpho is the fastest-growing major lending protocol by fee velocity (+13.6% weekly) and if this growth sustains in 6 months it will overtake Aave without competing with TVL
- Morpho is the #2 lending protocol by TVL at $7.6B, fees growing +13.6% in 7 days while Aave grows only +3.8%
- Morpho Midnight (fixed-rate protocol) launched + PRIME HELOC RWA integration announced, both expand the addressable market

sector tailwind: defi lending TVL broadly growing, risk appetite returning (ETH/BTC ratio at 3-month high)

when the sector turns, the fastest-moving asset usually outperforms

right now, that looks like $MORPHO

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2044288570396189181

👻 Threading Daily — 15.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro & Tech
- Xi: world order is 'crumbling into disarray'
- Earnings season begins in US
- US-Iran talks set to resume in Islamabad
- Israel and Lebanon to meet face-to-face in US
- Russia warns Israel over Iran Bushehr strikes
- Iran demands $270b compensation from Gulf states
- US-Philippines drills: 17K troops, largest ever
- Italy suspends military cooperation with Israel
- China exports up 2.5% in March, vs 8.6% forecast
- Germany wholesale prices +4.1% YoY, 3-yr high
- Australia flags stagflation risk from Iran war
- Dell, HP shares drop as Nvidia denies takeover
- RL training startup hits $750M on AI data demand
- Handshake & Mercor boom on AI training demand
- Anthropic hiring 454 roles at $320K-$405K

🔖Crypto News
- BTC up 17% since US-Iran war, beats stock
- BTC breaks above 6-month daily downtrend
- $439M in crypto shorts wiped in 24 hours
- HYPE hits $45, captures record 6.9% of perp OI
- STRC raises $1.15b, ex-dividend date tomorrow
- ECB backs tokenized EU markets with guardrails
- DOJ opens $40M payout for OneCoin victims
- Deutsche Borse takes $200M stake in Kraken
- Y Combinator closes first USDC-funded round
- Tokenized stock volume on Solana hits ATH
- Web3 hacks cost $464M in Q1, phishing tops
- BNB Chain sees $518M stablecoin inflow in 24h
- X Money launches with 6% APY and P2P payments

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- How Agents Will Reshape Markets
- Beyond the Sky: The Story of Hyperliquid
- Ethena Evolution: USDe Backing Diversification

🔖Raises
- Nava $8.3M, AI agent security infrastructure < Polychain, Archetype
- Claw Intelligence (Seed) $3M, AI on-chain tools < Titans, Castrum...
- Paxos Labs $12M, DeFi integrated platform < Blockchain Capital, Robot, Maelstrom, Uniswap
- Kraken $200M < Deutsche Bank

🔖Early Projects
- @giggles_app, Bio: Dollars over likes. giggles.me
- @CasterMarkets, Bio: Trade prediction markets on the Truth Layer. Decide what is real. caster.trade
- @instinct_xyz, Bio: Trade Everything Everywhere All at Once instinct.xyz

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

Here's my playbook on the current BSC meme cycle.

$CAKE up 10%
$ASTER up 6%
$GIGGLE up 42%
$BROCCOLI up 50%

I am seeing a fairly repetitive pattern now: a runner appears, price expands, then it chops sideways for roughly three days while the market waits for the nxt catalyst.

That catalyst is usually some sort of social validation i.e. people are watching whether @cz_binance or @heyibinance interacts. .

I think the most important part is the sideways phase is often a signal before the final pump.

And most of these projects will not make it to Binance Alpha. Behind the scenes, many teams are likely trying to reach Alpha listing channels. Once they realize a listing is unlikely, the playbook becomes very simple, they will sell immediately, or manufacture one last pump through paid posts, and bullish narrative farming before distribution.

So we'll need to manage expectations.

Coins that have a chance usually fall into two buckets:
1. where market makers may already have accumulated supply.
2. direct alignment with CZ / He Yi narratives, such as CZ-related memes, CZ book, CZ dog, Giggle-type themes.

But generic Binance mascots, slogans, or loosely BNB-branded memes usually have very low listing probability. We have seen this before with names like Bibi.

For most $BNB memes, the strategy is closer to event-driven liquidity rotation:

- buy the setup.
- wait for the catalyst.
- sell the news.
- let it dump back into sideways.
- re-enter only if a new catalyst forms.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2044064704281354581

👻 Threading Daily — 14.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Trump confirms US Hormuz blockade to begin
- Oil climbs above $100, futures fall
- Hormuz traffic plummets, tankers head to US
- Iran having issues clearing mines it laid
- Britain will not join Hormuz blockade
- Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China over Iran
- 2028 seen as key maturity wall for private credit
- Japan 10Y yield hits 2.48%, highest since 1997
- China Q1 GDP rebound expected, dim outlook
- TSMC set for 4th record profit on AI demand
- Japan adds $4B in subsidies for domestic chips
- Netherlands first EU country to approve Tesla FSD
- Durov calls WhatsApp E2E encryption fraud
- Altman reportedly targeted in second attack

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto sheds $83B in a day on Hormuz blockade
- Top Gainers: RAVE, STABLE, JTO, VVV, AAVE
- BTC, ETH, XRP weekly ETF inflows; SOL outflows
- Microstrategy added +13,927 BTC, now holds 780K BTC
- Bitmine acquires +71,524 ETH, now holds 4.8M ETH
- Ethereum new users surge 82% QoQ in Q1
- Justin Sun calls out being blacklisted by WLFI
- Alameda moves $16M SOL to creditor address
- Hackers mint 1B DOT on ETH, sell for $237K
- Hyperbridge DOT exploit caused by AI hack
- Hyperliquid TVL approaches $5B
- Grayscale eyes 30+ funds incl. TON, HYPE, TRX
- Bitwise files updated S-1 for Hyperliquid ETF
- EU banks selecting stablecoin partners
- Bank of Korea floats crypto ‘circuit breakers’
- HK issues first stablecoin licenses to HSBC group
- Starkware cuts staff after revenue plunge
- Binance Wallet adds pre-IPO assets

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- WLFI: Collateral Loop Breakdown
- From Neobanks to Onchain Banks
- 26 Claude shortcut hacks for faster prompts

🔖Raises
- Totalis (Seed) $0.5M, The derivatives layer of prediction markets < Y Combinator

🔖Early Projects
- @CobotCorp, Bio: Cobot's mission is to create a world where humans and robots collaborate in a trusted partnership. co.bot
- @ideogram_ai, Bio: Turn your ideas into creative graphic designs, in a matter of seconds. What will you create? ideogram.ai
- @SynaptrixAI, Bio: The future of brain-computer interfaces is non-invasive synaptrix-labs.com

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

Looks like we got our positive news from last week during that press conference/deadline. They came out with a ceasefire and 2 week timeline to negotiate terms again. This caused a massive rally in the market and sent us flying. Like I said, all we were waiting for was some indication that this war could be over. Its not over until its over, expect a lot of volatility as each side tell you its done or not. Over the weekend the first talks went bad with no deal and each side walking away. This caused some sell off on Sunday but quickly recovered as they started talking again about the negotiation lol... Its gonna be back n fourth. Either way it seems market is believing were at some end as prices are right back to near ATHs. FA events always take over TA. New bull or trap? Hmm.

Metals are recovering as well with bullish structure too. Dbl bottoms all around. With oil prices falling back down the inverse trade would be to take the metals back up. If we can keep the news on the positive side we should see continuation.

Oil looks to be topping out but this can flip on a switch the minute we get any news that the negotiations are going bad. Seems everyday its either good or bad and were just flip flopping back n fourth haha. Regardless, oil has ran up quite a bit now and seasonally our window is getting closer to an end. I've taken profits on all my oil plays yesterday and riding RISK ON assets now instead.

BTC is starting to look very attractive with this WEEKLY dbl bottom getting closer n closer to confirming. We already have the bullish divs on MACD confirmed, oversold conditions met, and within a RLZ! Now thats a complete setup and on a weekly chart. We just need to pray to the bull gods they can gift us with a nice push. We are now techincally back to its 38.2 first stop level on the daily charts. This has been a wall of resistance for us. We keep getting rejected here so this will be a critical point to break through. I think if we can confirm onto the otherside then we got a decent window for this market to rally. Especially if equities and metals start running up here with peace negotiations going through.

ALTs havent really changed much in past months. Were still sideways consolidating for most like BTC n ETH. If BTC n ETH continues to breakout then Im sure well see some rallies within the ALT market too. Hunt those dbl bottoms, bullish divs, oversold conditions and RLZ's. I personally am not playing much ALTs and focusing just on BTC n ETH along with my equities. However I could see there being a mini ALT season here soon. 🥂🙏

👻 Threading Daily — 13.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Oil back above $100 on limited Hormuz traffic
- European airlines warn of fuel shortage
- Melania Trump denies Epstein links
- White House warns staff on insider trading
- Trump calls out $7b fines from EU to Big Tech
- Google will use Intel chips in data centers
- Florida launches investigation into OpenAI
- Alibaba leads $290M AI world model investment
- Amazon says it may create its own chips
- Anthropic also considering designing its own chip
- Apple closing store in the US

🔖Crypto News
- BTC fails to break $73K for third time
- Top Gainers: ZEC, ENA, CFX, ZEN, DEXE
- WLFI borrowed $75m against its own token
- Covenant AI exits Bittensor, TAO drops 15%
- Japan approves crypto as financial products
- Ex-SEC staffer becomes Securitize president
- Kraken’s Fed account causing criticism
- OKX, HashKey invest $380M in Vietnam exchange
- x402 protocol adds AI compute pricing
- Bitmine uplists to NYSE, buyback up to $4B
- Alibaba joins THETA as validator
- Circle stock sinks 10% on downgrade
- CZ offers $1b bet against OKX founder
- Metamask launches Advanced Permissions to eliminate repeated approvals

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Q1 2026 Becomes Largest Venture Quarter Ever at $300B, Up 150% Year-Over-Year — a16z
- Lido's CircuitBreaker: From Disposable Fuses to a Permanent Panic Layer — c4lvin

🔖Raises
- SimpleChain (Seed) $15M, The Global RWA Infrastructure Layer

🔖Early Projects
- @isometricmkts, Bio: a new defi primitive— isometric replaces binary prediction markets with continuous curve derivatives. isomkts.com
- @facto_to, Bio: We enable every DeFi position to spend facto.to
- @saidinfra, Bio: On-chain identity, verificaton and communication for AI agents on @solana. Join the discord: http://discord.gg/saidprotocol saidprotocol.com

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

apple closing store in the US


https://www.macrumors.com/2026/04/10/unionized-apple-store-permanently-closing/

👻 Threading Daily — 10.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Oil up, Asian stocks fall on fragile truce
- Israel continues Lebanon strikes
- UAE says Hormuz is still not open
- May be months before Hormuz traffic normalises
- Fed minutes: door open to more rate cuts
- BoJ set to raise rates again
- Trump widens NATO rift, mentions Greenland
- Health insurance stocks soaring on Medicare update
- Intel joins Elon’s Terafab AI project
- Perplexity revenue +50% on AI agent shift
- Revolut launches AI assistant
- Uber tests driverless vans in LA

🔖Crypto News
- BTC under 71K as Iran ceasefire frays
- BTC has likely bottomed: Saylor
- BTC price increasingly correlated to oil
- BTC has 3-5 years before quantum risk: Bernstein
- MON one of the best performers since ICO
- TON chain upgrade, 10x speed boost, near-instant txs
- 50% of Hyperliquid volume now non-crypto
- Fartcoin sees huge up-down wick on liquidation
- Stablecoin volume predicted to hit $1.5Q by 2035
- Canary Capital files spot PEPE ETF
- France says wallets over 5K EUR must be declared
- Crypto cards hit $600M monthly volume
- ByBit foils $1B hack
- Bhutan moves $23M in BTC, holdings -70%
- Iran demanding BTC for Hormuz tolls
- ZachXBT uncovers new N. Korea network
- Yuga Labs settles BAYC NFT lawsuit

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The $400T Future of Tokenised Assets — Keyrock
- Crypto Privacy’s Quiet Revolution: The 2026 Update — Delphi Digital
- A Deep Dive into the Future of Onchain Liquidity Routing — The Block

🔖Raises
- Oh (Series A) $7.5M, AI infrastructure and products for digital creators < Maven 11, Hashed, Maelstrom...
- Splyce Finance (Strategic), Real-world yield on Solana < Sui, Stellar, Solana...
- Enhanced (Pre-Seed) $1M, Decentralized yield layer < Maximum, GSR, Flowdesk, Selini

🔖Early Projects
- @metamorphiclabs, Bio: From artificial to natural intelligence. metamorphic.com
- @SplashOS, Bio: The trading terminal you take with you splashwallet.xyz
- @hatchfunxyz, Bio: AMM Killer - Launchpad with 10x fees & liquidity | Trade depth & smoother charts | Permissionless Meteora DLMM launches hatchfun.xyz

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

👻 Threading Daily — 09.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- US, Iran sign 2-week ceasefire; markets surge
- Lebanon still faces Israel strikes
- Oil falls below $100, Treasury yields fall 10bp
- Asian & European markets surge, S. Korea up 6%
- Gas prices had hit $4+ in 20 US states
- Berkshire in longest losing streak in 7+ years
- Morgan Stanley plans private credit fund
- Memory stocks rise on dampened supply fears

🔖Crypto News
- BTC jumps to $72K on US-Iran ceasefire deal
- $427M in shorts wiped on US-Iran ceasefire
- Top Gainers: ZEC, TAO, SUI, HYPE, ADA
- BTC wallets absorb 4.37M BTC in bull signal
- ETH net taker volume shows bullish reversal sign
- Ethereum stablecoin supply hits $180B ATH
- Morgan Stanley BTC ETF set for captive demand
- FBI: Americans lost $11B to crypto scams in 2025
- SEC: crypto enforcement had no investor benefit
- Coinbase expands to stock trading in Australia

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The Next Crypto Cycle is Coming — mert
- Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Hyperliquid HIP-4 — Eli5
- Why HIP-4 Will Take Over Finance — Decentralised Co

🔖Raises
- Pharos (Series A) $44M, Full-stack parallel blockchain < SNZ, Chainlink...

🔖Early Projects
- @m_lighterxyz, Bio: NA
- @ValetTrading, Bio: Valet MM: Your TGE Assistant & Market Manager.
Tailored liquidity, secure contracts & expert market making for token launches. valet.trading
- @LanaAI, Bio: So, Lana lana.ai

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

👻 Threading Daily — 08.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- US jobs surprise: 178K added in March 2026
- US skeptical Iran deadline will be extended
- Tehran demands Hormuz fees in any peace deal
- Trump: S. Korea, Japan, Australia didn't help
- US gas may top $5/gal if Hormuz stays closed
- AI causing 16k per month job losses
- OpenAI pushes industrial policy for AI
- OpenAI asks state AGs to investigate Elon Musk
- Anthropic tops $30B in annualized revenue
- Samsung profit jumps 8-fold on AI chip boom

🔖Crypto News
- BTC diverges from stocks weakness on Iran
- ETFs see biggest inflow in 6 weeks
- BTC quantum risk ‘more social than technical’
- HL's RWA market reaches new ATH with $2.3B+ OI
- Strategy posts $14.5b Q1 loss
- Options market pricing major BTC downside move
- Bloomberg: Hurricane coming, BTC may fall to 10K
- Solo BTC miner scores $210K block reward
- SEC crypto safe harbor now ready to sign
- SEC chair: crypto available for fundraising near
- SOL launches security initiative after Drift hack
- Tldr of the Chaos situation
- Libra probe: new evidence ties to Milei
- Tokenized stocks see first on-chain vote for Galaxy
- Prediction market still have vague tax treatment
- JPMorgan may enter prediction markets

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Circle's $420M+ in Alleged USDC Compliance Failures Since 2022 — ZachXBT
- The Big Thing: We Are In A World War That Isn’t Going To End Anytime Soon — Ray Dalio

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @SuperSwapINK, Bio: SuperSwap - The Gateway to Tokenized Markets. Stocks, Commodities, Currencies and Crypto Onchain · 24/7 & Permissionless Access.
- @ValinorDigital, Bio: Valinor is built to accelerate the convergence of traditional and onchain markets. valinordigital.com

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

Equities have recovered slightly from the sell off from last week however were right back at a 32.8 first stop fib level now. This is where deadcat bounces usually get halted. Need to see some bullish structure still to break through and confirm the trend is back to bull. Still war on-going and its causing pain in the market which makes it hard to believe we can see a bull market. Today Trump is speaking I believe and the deadline for Iran's deal which isnt going well from what Ive seen so far which means longer conflicts. Really need to see this war get resolved before getting too bullish again tbh. For now nothing to do but monitor the situation and sit on your hands.

Gold fired off its dbl bottom last week and I am long still. Kinda risky with the on-going conflict but a setup is a setup. If we can get some positive news tonight maybe we start seeing things turn again. Its been very back n fourth lately so I wouldnt be surprised if we start heading back down again here, after the press conference.

Oil still ripping higher as the limited supply shock on oil continues. I did read they were allowing few ships across the Hormuz but its no where near levels we need. Seems that dbl bottom is playing out now and were breaking through the short RLZ. Got higher targets of about 141ish for my AB=CD harmonics. Im still in some oil plays from early feb but not looking to add or anything. Just in profit taking mode as the seasonal trade window is coming closer to some end. Lets see how the press conference goes as any signs of positive news of war ending will shoot down the oil market.

BTC n ETH are hanging on quite well compared to rest of the risk market. Still just range bound and forming these sideways structure. Dbl bottoms tried to come through again yesterday but still couldnt break out. Market feels stuck. Not surprising I guess with all the fundamental events going on.. Weekly chart on BTC though is getting more n more interesting as we continue sideways here. If we can confirm that weekly dbl bottom then I would be pretty excited on the long side of things. Bullish momentum confirmed on the weekly now. Just missing its structure next.

ALTs are pretty much sideways range bound as well. Until BTC n ETH breaks out dont see much of crypto doing too much. Still outliers out there but overall Im not too interested in ALTs atm. Things are definitely on discount at these levels though and setups are setups at the end of the day. Find the ones that are either at the bottom of their ranges or RLZ. Look for the bullish divs on MACD and oversold conditions. And finally hunt them dbl bottoms!