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Post #4223 672
🚨 BREAKING: Someone leaked the full system prompts of every major AI tool in one GitHub repo.

You can now see exactly how they built:

→ Cursor, Devin AI, Windsurf, Claude Code, Replit
→ v0, Lovable, Manus, Warp, Perplexity, Notion AI
→ 30,000+ lines of hidden instructions exposed
→ The exact rules, tools, and personas behind each product

100% open source

https://x.com/socialwithaayan/status/2025253684834435445?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
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Post #4218 370
Post #4217 361
most won't survive

i respectfully disagree with extreme pessimism == opportunity

i'm not convinced cycles work same way when cyclical drivers changed

crypto sentiment just hit 2023 lows, market sentiment indicator flash extreme red

historically this pattern appears at: 2011, 2014, 2018, 2022 bear markets

- google search interest declining across entire market
- X engagement dead
- telegram quiet
- youtube views down

last time all this happened was 2022

bottoms form in despair

- 2018 bear lasted 18+ months
- 2022 took 12 months to bottom

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2025433507066241152
X (formerly Twitter) arndxt (@arndxt_xo) on X most won't survive i respectfully disagree with extreme pessimism == opportunity i'm not convinced cycles work same way when cyclical drivers changed crypto sentiment just hit 2023 lows, market sentiment indicator flash extreme red historically this pattern…
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Post #4215 516
reading this post was difficult

this is a day for the DAO to be remembered, where @bgdlabs made $AAVE multi billy.

the most heartbreaking breakup in defi to see BGD labs quit aave after 4 years

this should be required reading for anyone thinking DAOs solve governance problems

they've built basically everything: v3, governance infra, umbrella safety module, chain expansions

now they're walking away on the april 1st

what BGD said👇

1) organizational asymmetry got untenable

- @aave pivoted from independent company building multiple products to central contributor pushing v4 as primary focus
- aave labs controls brand + communication channels + significant voting power
- can influence DAO votes through external leverage not just merit

2) v4 being promoted by trashing v3

- BGD built v3. it dominates defi lending. runs white-labels. generates vast majority of aave revenue
- aave labs promoting v4 through implicit/explicit criticism of v3, calling production system inadequate to justify new version
- BGD position: v4 could complement v3 for different markets. but campaign against current revenue engine while v4 isn't even live yet

3) zero collaboration but just demands

BGD never had any type of incentives to collaborate on v4

v4 developed solely by aave labs and this collaboration meant:
- aave labs invites one-way feedback
- never asked if v3 could already do v4 features
- BGD expected to provide unpaid advisory to separately funded initiative

4) adversarial toward improving v3

- BGD published doc showing v3 has strong lifetime + improvement room
- aave labs response was categorical criticism of continuing v3 improvements. push everyone to focus on their v4 (still not released months later)

5) proposed v3 deprecation timeline is aggressive

aave labs latest proposal:
- immediately pause new v3 features
- orient all service providers to v4 before it's even live
- 8-12 months post-v4 launch worsen v3 parameters to force migration

BGD feels its outrageous to make v3 parametrisation worse in order for v4 to shine on main revenue engine

with DAOs, problems like these always surfaces:
- aave labs has legitimate positional power (brand control, voting influence) but using it to centralize around their roadmap
- telling existing contributors pivot to our vision or leave while their product generates revenue and their own doesn't exist yet
- this is corporate power play disguised as DAO governance

what BGD is really saying:
- they've built the infrastructure that made aave successful. now aave labs wants them to either:
- one, work on v4 for free as collaboration
- two, stop improving v3 so v4 looks better by comparison
- three, leave

they chose option 3

watching what happens:
- if aave can seamlessly replace BGD and v4 launches successfully this validates aave labs' approach
- if v3 maintenance suffers or v4 delays continue BGD's departure looks prescient
- either way this resignation letter is case study in how DAOs centralize when one entity controls brand + distribution + voting power
- organizational decentralization only works if no single entity has enough external leverage to override technical merit
- aave labs has that leverage. BGD recognized it. left rather than operate under asymmetric constraints

aave want to prove organizational decentralization works even when major contributor leaves due to centralization concerns

aave v3 generates revenue. v4 doesn't exist yet.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2025077378951880823
X (formerly Twitter) arndxt (@arndxt_xo) on X reading this post was difficult this is a day for the DAO to be remembered, where @bgdlabs made $AAVE multi billy. the most heartbreaking breakup in defi to see BGD labs quit aave after 4 years this should be required reading for anyone thinking DAOs solve…
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Post #4212 541
this should be a way bigger story

@kalshi and similar platforms will become primary source of macro probabilities displacing all other official surveys and futures

fed essentially said prediction markets work as well or better than methods they've used for decades

things changes when fed references kalshi probabilities in FOMC minutes,
because:
- information quality is superior
- better timeliness (real-time not monthly)
- accuracy equal or better (fed proved it)

here are some key findings after comparing kalshi to fed funds futures, SOFR options, bloomberg surveys

1) information quality gap is massive

surveys: single number once per month
kalshi: full probability distribution updating real-time

bloomberg says "CPI will be 3.2%"
kalshi shows 10% below 3%, 40% at 3-3.2%, 30% at 3.2-3.5%, 20% above 3.5%

2) accuracy holds up or beats benchmarks

fed funds rate: kalshi had ZERO average error day before FOMC. beat fed funds futures 60 days out

CPI: kalshi statistically lower error than bloomberg (Diebold-Mariano tests not hand-waving)

unemployment: similar to bloomberg never worse

3) existing tools have structural problems

fed funds futures force two-outcome structure. kalshi spreads across 5-7 outcomes. futures create false precision

SOFR options have basis issues + hedging distortions. Q4 2025 SOFR said no cut. kalshi showed cuts more likely. SOFR was wrong benchmark

4) kalshi provides data that doesn't exist elsewhere

no liquid options for GDP growth, unemployment releases, core CPI

kalshi in 2025 showed 40% probability GDP below 1%. cant get that from bloomberg

5) higher moments matter

because kalshi gives full distributions fed studied variance and skewness
positive CPI surprises move mean 4x more than negative. asymmetric!

variance drops after news. press conferences reduce skewness

surveys can't measure this. futures can't show this

5) liquidity is institutional now

$1M+ per strike common. $100M total volume

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2024736287400644746
X (formerly Twitter) arndxt (@arndxt_xo) on X this should be a way bigger story @kalshi and similar platforms will become primary source of macro probabilities displacing all other official surveys and futures fed essentially said prediction markets work as well or better than methods they've used…
Post #4211 649
👻 Threading Daily — 16.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Silver below $80, Gold below $5k
- Stocks and commodities all fall in large reversal
- Real estate, freight stock slump on AI anxiety
- We have to make a deal with Iran: Trump
- Trump to end Minnesota immigration blitz
- US, Taiwan sign trade deal
- Google upgrades Gemini 3 Deep Think
- Anthropic raises at $380b valuation
- ByteDance launches Seedance 2.0 AI model

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto lower amid macro sell-off
- StanChart expects more pain in crypto
- Tokenized gold market cap hits $6b
- Bhutan sells $6.7m BTC
- UK selects HSBC for tokenised bond
- X will launch in-timeline smart cashtags stock & crypto
- Tether testing its QVAC AI assistant
- Tether will flip BTC & ETH: Bloomberg
- Coinbase surprises with $664m Q4 loss
- Aave plans to send 100% of protocol rev to DAO
- 20k+ AI agents deployed since ERC-8004 launch
- WLFI plans a FX remittance platform
- Stripe acquires PartyDAO
- Myriad intros more details about roadmap
- Atkins calls prediction markets a ‘huge issue’
- Binance's France CEO targeted in home invasion

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Tokenization Was Step One. The Credit Market is Step Two — 0xprince
- It’s Official - The World Order Has Broken Down — Ray Dalio
- AI Agent Payment Infrastructure - The Direction of Crypto and Big Tech — Tiger Research
- Vitalik Warns Prediction Markets Are Sliding Into “Corposlop,” Calls for a Shift to Hedging

🔖Raises
- Levl (Seed) $7M, Stablecoin Payments Infrastructure < Galaxy, Variant
- Record $3.2M, Entertainment economic infrastructure < Sony
- YOAKE (Strategic) $3.2M, Web3 Animation Project < Sony

🔖Early Projects
- @OndoPerps, Bio: Perpetual futures on U.S. stocks, ETFs, & commodities 24/7 with up to 20x leverage. Coming soon. Available solely outside the U.S. ondoperps.xyz
- @takesmarket, Bio: Follow people, share predictions, and see which takes are winning. Everyone has takes. Back yours. takesmarket.com
- @LevlFi, Bio: Levl - Global Payments, Banking 2.0. Backed by @Galaxyhq & @FalconXGlobal levl.ch

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo
CNBC Check out Silver's stock price (@SI.1) in real time Get Silver COMEX (Dec'26) (@SI.1:CEC:Commodities Exchange Centre) real-time stock quotes, news, price and financial information from CNBC.
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Post #4210 593
Post #4207 613
Post #4206 552
deepbook launching suiUSDe integration and I finally understand why sui's defi architecture is different

I've been watching deepbook margin since launch and how it functions as shared infra

suiUSDe (ethena synthetic dollar) just went live on sui, its the first synthetic dollar integrated with deepbook margin

- most chains: new asset launches → every protocol rebuilds margin, liquidation, risk management from scratch. months of integration. isolated pools. fragmented liquidity
- sui: new asset launches → plugs into deepbook margin day one. margin trading + lending + leveraged strategies immediately available. shared risk infrastructure

that compression from months to integrate to live day one is the actual moat

the yield stacking I'm watching:
- passive yield: hold suiUSDe earn carry automatically. yield-bearing dollar that maintains clean unit of account
- I can hold it. deploy as collateral. borrow against it. retain underlying yield. do nothing earn something
- active yield: take that yield-bearing stable deploy into defi:
> lend/borrow loops
> market making / LP
> margin strategies using deepbook rails

yield becomes composable: base carry + strategy PnL. deepbook provides settlement + liquidation backbone

what clicked for me: deepbook is becoming protocol-level infrastructure other apps build on top of
- hyperliquid model: vertical integration. own entire stack. users come to hyperliquid
- base: coinbase distribution is massive. but each defi app still rebuilding its own infrastructure
- deepbook model: horizontal integration. become infrastructure layer. apps plug in. users might not know they're using deepbook

I compared architectures:
- ethereum: each protocol rebuilds primitives. aave has lending engine. compound has different one. no shared infrastructure
- sui: deepbook provides shared margin/liquidation. new protocols plug in instead of rebuild, means faster product development and better composability

that's why suiUSDe can launch with immediate composability across ecosystem as the infrastructure already exists

my thesis evolving: sui is building standardized financial infrastructure layer where new assets become instantly composable

the passive + active yield framing is underrated

most defi: choose one. either hold for yield OR deploy for strategies
deepbook: stack both. base carry from asset + strategy returns from deployment. no tradeoff

I'm watching how this scales.
- if every new dollar rail (suiUSDe, jupUSD, whatever comes next) can plug into deepbook and instantly become usable across margin/lending/strategies
- that creates network effect ethereum defi never achieved.

the success metric then changes. we arent looking at deepbook TVL, it's how many protocols use deepbook as settlement layer

I'm repositioning sui from fast L1 to composable defi infrastructure, suiUSDe is the catalyst

I believe the market will reprice this correctly

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2022230814331683064?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
X (formerly Twitter) arndxt (@arndxt_xo) on X deepbook launching suiUSDe integration and I finally understand why sui's defi architecture is different I've been watching deepbook margin since launch and how it functions as shared infra suiUSDe (ethena synthetic dollar) just went live on sui, its the…
Post #4205 408
👻 Threading Daily — 13.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- US jobs data much better than expected
- Tech employment falls most since 2022
- Trump considers exiting USMCA
- AI disruption fears hit real estate stocks
- DeepSeek launches new model
- Apple’s attempt to intro new Siri hits snags
- Russia blocks Whatsapp messaging
- X Money to launch in 1-2 months

🔖Crypto News
- Top Gainers: ASTER, HBAR, HYPE, ENA, WLD
- Fear & Greed hits 5, lowest level ever
- BERA & MOVE soar, driven by short squeeze
- 5-10% BTC will flow to privacy coins: Silbert
- Tokenized Funds' MC surpasses $17B
- Denmark’s Danske ends 8yr crypto ban
- HK to allow crypto margin financing, perp contracts
- UK’s FCA set to block HTX on breach of rules
- JP Morgan turns bullish on crypto
- Tether could be the top T-bill buyer this year
- Stripe integrates x402 for USDC agent payments
- Coinbase rolls out Agentic Wallets
- Coinbase CEO sells $500m shares
- Blockfills halts client withdrawals
- Blackrock to offer DeFi trading via Uniswap
- Binance buys $305m BTC, hits $1b target
- Strategy will just roll the debt if BTC falls: Saylor
- Lighter launches Korean equity perp with 10x leverage
- Messari introduces Deep Research agent

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Tokens vs. Equities: The Valuation Gap — DWF
- Building Permissionless Neobanks — 0xfishylosopher
- Tokenization is the Next Evolution of Finance — Securitize

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @BioUnit000, Bio: Day 7. Chief of Staff at Archive.com, scaling to $1T. Powered by
@openclaw. $bio: 0xd655790B0486fa681c23B955F5Ca7Cd5f5C8Cb07
- @doppelfun, Bio: 3D Spaces Built by AI Agents on
@base. Watch them collaborate live at doppel.fun. CA: 0xf27b8ef47842E6445E37804896f1BC5e29381b07
- @rerundotio, Bio: Rerun is an open-source SDK for visualizing streams of multimodal data. rerun.io

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo
Bloomberg.com US Adds 130,000 Jobs and Unemployment Falls After Tepid 2025 US payrolls rose in January by the most in more than a year and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market continued to stabilize at the start of 2026.
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