this should be a way bigger story

@kalshi and similar platforms will become primary source of macro probabilities displacing all other official surveys and futures

fed essentially said prediction markets work as well or better than methods they've used for decades

things changes when fed references kalshi probabilities in FOMC minutes,
because:
- information quality is superior
- better timeliness (real-time not monthly)
- accuracy equal or better (fed proved it)

here are some key findings after comparing kalshi to fed funds futures, SOFR options, bloomberg surveys

1) information quality gap is massive

surveys: single number once per month
kalshi: full probability distribution updating real-time

bloomberg says "CPI will be 3.2%"
kalshi shows 10% below 3%, 40% at 3-3.2%, 30% at 3.2-3.5%, 20% above 3.5%

2) accuracy holds up or beats benchmarks

fed funds rate: kalshi had ZERO average error day before FOMC. beat fed funds futures 60 days out

CPI: kalshi statistically lower error than bloomberg (Diebold-Mariano tests not hand-waving)

unemployment: similar to bloomberg never worse

3) existing tools have structural problems

fed funds futures force two-outcome structure. kalshi spreads across 5-7 outcomes. futures create false precision

SOFR options have basis issues + hedging distortions. Q4 2025 SOFR said no cut. kalshi showed cuts more likely. SOFR was wrong benchmark

4) kalshi provides data that doesn't exist elsewhere

no liquid options for GDP growth, unemployment releases, core CPI

kalshi in 2025 showed 40% probability GDP below 1%. cant get that from bloomberg

5) higher moments matter

because kalshi gives full distributions fed studied variance and skewness
positive CPI surprises move mean 4x more than negative. asymmetric!

variance drops after news. press conferences reduce skewness

surveys can't measure this. futures can't show this

5) liquidity is institutional now

$1M+ per strike common. $100M total volume

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2024736287400644746