Threading on the Edge

All ways to earn on Polymarket

https://x.com/0xd1namit/status/2017251527753167204

👻 Threading Daily — 30.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Gold hits $5.5k as rally accelerates, silver hits $120
- Uranium goes parabolic, Aluminium at 4yr high
- S&P500 hits $7k for the first time
- FOMC leaves rates unchanged in split decision
- Russian oil income drops sharply as sanctions bite
- China forgoes ‘three red lines’ to lift property
- Microsoft drops, Meta jumps post earnings
- Amazon to lay off 16k employees
- OpenAI wants to build biometric social network

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto falls after Fed leaves rates unchanged
- Russia to roll out crypto framework this July
- UK pulls Coinbase’s ‘socially irresponsible’ ads
- Hang Seng debuts tokenized gold ETF
- 40% merchants accepting crypto: PayPal survey
- Fidelity plans FIDD stablecoin
- Ripple launches ‘Ripple Treasury’
- Uniswap plans ‘Continuous Clearing Auctions’
- MegaETH mainnet coming Feb 9
- Polymarket on pace for ATH $3b monthly volume
- Coinbase prediction market live in all of US via Kalshi

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Where tf is crypto heading? — 13300RPM
- Time Decay on Prediction Markets — Eli5

🔖Raises
- Talos (Series B) $45M, Institutional-grade technology infrastructure < a16z, QCP, Karatage, IMC, Fidelity, Robinhood, Sony...
- Flying Tulip (Series A) $25.5M, Intelligent trading protocol < Amber, Paper...

🔖Early Projects
- @twin_labs, Bio: The AI company builder. twin.so
- @faunarobotics, Bio: faunarobotics.com
- @openclaw, Bio: The AI that does things. Emails, calendar, home automation, from your favorite chat app. Your machine, your rules. New shell, same lobster soul. 🦞openclaw.ai

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

👻 Threading Daily — 29.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Gold hits $5.3k ATHk, Silver resumes rally
- S&P 500 hits ATH, USD hits 4-year low
- Traders betting on a deeper selloff in Dollar
- Trump: We have to use tariffs to achieve peace
- US consumer confidence hit lowest since 2014
- Swiss Franc surges to decade high
- China’s Moonshot unveils AI model
- Anthropic doubles VC fundraising to $20b
- SoftBank in talks to invest $30b in OpenAI
- Saudi Arabia distances itself from Iran attack

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto rallies as dollar continues to fall
- ETH to intro AI agent economy on mainnet
- HYPE up 50% in 2 days as HIP-3 volume soars
- PUMP rallies to $3.3b as revenue picks-up
- Tether now largest gold holder outside nations, banks
- StanChart: $500b to leave banks to stablecoins by ‘28
- S Korea allows investment in overseas crypto
- Japan seeks public input on stablecoin collateral
- S Dakota lawmaker revives BTC reserve push
- Theo launches yield-bearing tokenized gold for DeFi
- ZK-powered BTC L2 Citrea launches mainnet
- Moonbirds fall 40% on BIRB vesting
- Coinbase launches prediction markets
- Flying Tulip token sale on CoinList
- MegaETH to launch public mainnet on Feb 9

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Messari: State of DePIN 2025
- GSR 2026 Outlook - From Speculation to Structure: Crypto's Institutional Turning Point

🔖Raises
- Bleap (Seed) $6M, Wallet-connected debit card < Blossom
- Doppler (Seed) $9M, Custom markets for launching tokens < Pantera, Coinbase, Variant, Figment
- Startale Labs (Series A) $13M, Web3 infrastructure and public goods < Sony Innovation Fund

🔖Early Projects
- @Eva_Everywhere, Bio: Eva is your personal assistant that has your life admin handled...
- @tenbinlabs, Bio: TradFi liquidity with DeFi utility. Global markets, tokenized on-chain. tenbinlabs.xyz
- @verofinancehq, Bio: Compliance-first cross-border payments platform for importers and exporters using stablecoins. vero.finance


✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

How to Harvest $200/day on Polymarket Trading Time Decay, My Exact Calendar Spread Formula

i am starting to look for term structure mispricing on @Polymarket

am still learning but not an expert like @ec_unoxx, who shared this strat with me.

it’s an arb strategy that is closer to how options traders think about term structure and time decay:
- find the SAME event with different expiry dates
- sell expensive near-term premium, buy cheap long-term
- profit from time decay differential

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2016555735216476575

FULL article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/how-to-harvest-200day-on-polymarket

👻 Threading Daily — 28.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Gold reaches another new ATH of $5,200
- Trump increases tariffs on S Korea
- US natural gas prices parabolic on harsh winter
- EU, India agree ‘landmark’ trade deal
- 149m passwords exposed in massive data leak
- Anthropic to raise $10b on $350b valuation
- Big tech debt spree raises AI risks in bond market
- EU opens formal probe into xAI
- Microsoft unveils latest AI chip

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto mixed as metals continue to take limelight
- HYPE up 25% as HIP-3 hits ATH $790m OI
- CLAWD drops 90% as bot changes its name
- CopperInu hits $15m after Cobie post
- Strategy buys $264m BTC, BMNR $117m ETH
- Whale moves $397m ETH to Gemini this week
- Tether launches USAT in US
- US banks block or delay 40% of crypto payments
- Russia effectively bans WhiteBIT exchange
- VanEck launches first AAVE ETF
- Kraken rolls out ‘DeFi Earn’ in US, EU, Canada
- SOL validator count down 65% vs 2023
- Moonbirds introduces its $BIRB tokenomics
- Bitwise debuts onchain vault via Morpho
- Polymarket signs exclusive licensing deal with MLS

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Arthur Hayes’s New Essay “Woomph”
- Is Perps Still a Good Thing?

🔖Raises
- AetheriumX (Strategic) $8M, Web3 Financial entertainment platform < Cryptogram, Duckdao, Gains, Genesis
- Tenbin (Seed) $7M, On-chain tokenized market < Galaxy, Wintermute, GSR, FalconX
- Mesh (Series C) $75M, Crypto payment network < Dragonfly, Paradigm, Coinbase
- Humanity Protocol (Strategic), Sybil-resistance network of blockchains < Hex Trust
- Bulletin (M&A), Crypto OTC trading data company < DefiLlama

🔖Early Projects
- @moltbot, Bio: Molty 🦞 The AI that actually does things. Emails, calendar, home automation - all from your favorite chat app. New shell, ready to help. The lobster way.
- @sequencemarkets, Bio: The Execution OS for Digital Assets | Venue-neutral smart order routing for crypto

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

If you are heading to Consensus HK, you might find these resources helpful

Side event list:

https://bit.ly/consensushk2026
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e4hRB9BQG2ZFW7JDVunz84XJeEHT3X6pwS9lPiM_LF4/edit?usp=sharing
https://luma.com/cryptosideevents
https://cryptonomads.org/ConsensusHKEvents2026

Recap of some insights i got from last year:
- No fresh narrative
- AI × Web3 still mostly theory
- DePIN & RWA adoption is still niche
- Asia capital is still here
- Stablecoins are winning
- TON is a regional giant with strong distribution
- Cross-chain + intents under-discussed
(refer to image for an alternative take)

Some of the best HK's top places to eat/explore:

Local food
Kwan Kee Claypot Rice
Four Seasons Chinese Restaurant
Oi Man Sang
Xin Rong Ji Restaurant
Lin Heung Lau
Ladies Street Sik Fan Co

Cultural experience
M+ Museum and West Kowloon Park
Happy Valley Horse Races
Tai Kwun (former prison turned to bars/restaurants)
PMQ artistic area with creative shops
Take the Dingding Tram and Star Ferry

Nightlife
Avoca
Darkside
Penicillin
Quinary
Coa
Peel Street

Hiking
Sunset at Jardin’s Lookout/Braemar Hill (easy)
Devil’s Peak (easy)
Thousand Island (easy)
Tai Mo Shan (highest mountain in HK, moderate)
Sunset Peak (challenging)
Suicide Cliff (challenging)

Day/Weekend Trips

Sai Kung – Discover HK’s nature side
Highlights: UNESCO geopark, ancient volcanic rock formations, sea arches, coastal landscapes.

Tai O Village – Explore the old side of HK
Highlights: fishing village, quiet coastal views, and you can spot pink dolphins if you’re lucky.

Shenzhen – Visit China’s Tech Hub (15min by train) Highlights: Nanshan district (driverless taxis & drone deliveries), Talent Park (SZ skyline), Huafa Snow World (world’s biggest indoor ski resort), 24-hour spa.

Guangzhou – Learn about Cantonese culture (50min by train)
Highlights: old towns, Cantonese cuisine, temples, hot springs.

(credits to @Sheng5Wu for this local HK guide)

Finally for those who like to go to the main event, you may find this discount code useful from @NOTALONExyz: NOTALONEVN

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1893873756105552218

Perp trading is brutal. 90% of traders lose money.

But there's a cheat code most people don't know about: profitable wallets on Hyperliquid are fully visible.

There are free tools that let you see exactly how consistent winners are positioned. It's like copying off the kid who always aces the test.

3 tools I've been using:

https://x.com/thedefiedge/status/2016118571483447674?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

i've dug through @stacy_muur guide and filtered 8 perp dexes worth farming based on volume OI and fee economics:

@paradex - starknet appchain. $220M TVL (6x growth). $36B monthly volume. season 2 live distributing 4M XP weekly. I'm trading + providing vault liquidity

@edgeX_exchange - transitioning to EDGE chain. $84B monthly volume. pre-TGE season launched jan 7. spot gives 3x XP multiplier and holding $MARU for boost

@grvt_io - zkync L3. $38B monthly volume. rewards 2.0 emphasizes open interest weighting. I'm maintaining positions not just churning volume

@extendedapp - ex-revolut team on starknet. $37B monthly. 1.2M points weekly. providing LP for 20% bonus APY

@pacifica_fi - solana hybrid. closed beta but doing $840M daily. consecutive trading bonus up to 23%. I'm farming streak multiplier

@reya_xyz - modular L2 with shared liquidity. staking for srUSD (4.8% APY) plus loyalty points. trading gets highest allocation

@variational_io - loss refunds on arbitrum. refunded $3M trader losses. I'm using this for riskier trades knowing downside is cushioned

@nadoHQ - kraken's ink L2. private alpha ended. waiting for open beta. early users get INK airdrop

strategy = funding rate arbitrage
- open long on one dex short on another
- hedge price risk
- capture funding rates
- generate volume for points
- break even or profit while farming

example:
$10k BTC long + $10k BTC short. funding +0.01% every 8h.
- earn $3 daily regardless of BTC direction

risks I'm managing:
- liquidation on short leg (using stop loss)
- funding flipping negative (monitoring constantly)
- avoid high leverage (staying 5-10x max)

tools:
- @LorisTools for funding rate aggregation
- @fundingviewapp for historical profitable pairs
- @dextrabot for automated delta-neutral strategies

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2016184056690704766

Earn 20% APY, get paid in ETH when you stake SSV

https://x.com/ssv_network/status/2016156591452832191

👻 Threading Daily — 27.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Silver hits $110, gold $5,100
- Odds of another US govt shutdown hit 75%+
- China is taking over Canada: Trump
- Dollar hits lowest since Sep
- Poland cools on joining EU after economy surges
- Trump admin to buy 10% stake in Rare Earth Inc
- Clawdbot goes viral as personal AI agent
- AI job cuts hitting hardest in UK
- TikTok acquisition deal completed

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto falls on fear bill delayed by shutdown
- BTC mining hashrate crashes due to Storm Fernan
- Dormant whale moves $145m ETH
- Bitmine +40,302 ETH, now holds 4,243,338 ETH
- ETH foundation forms post-quantum security team
- $40m crypto stolen from US government wallet
- Axie Infinity leads surge in gaming coins this month
- PENGUIN hits $120m after White House post
- Gemini’s Nifty Gateway to shut down
- Japan to approve first crypto ETFs in 2028
- HIP-3 Open Interest reaches an ATH of $790M
- Moonbirds confirm BIRB airdrop on 28th Jan
- Coinbase adds Doodles, Moonbirds to roadmap
- Zama public auction: $118M committed
- Infinex TGE on 30th Jan
- Spacecoin announces SPACE airdrop plans
- Certik eyes IPO at $2b valuation

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Quantum vs Crypto: Hype vs Reality — a16zcrypto
- How Effective is Polymarket FDV Prediction Market? — Four Pillars
- Investing in User-Owned Technology: 26 Opportunities in 2026 — ElectricCapital

🔖Raises
- Everything (Seed) $6.9M, Telegram-based trading tool < Humanity, Hex, Animoca, Three Point
- Zona (Pre-Seed), RWA platform < echo, Animoca
- Sentient (Strategic), AI development platform < Franklin Templeton

🔖Early Projects
- @seqrbase, Bio: Decentralized sequencers need decentralized ownership. That's SEQR.
- @splatworldvr, Bio: ai, metaverse and robotics research | powered by @claudeai, @bfl_ml and @theworldlabs splatworld.io
- @Eva_Everywhere, Bio: Eva is your personal assistant that has your life admin handled...

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

The two biggest headaches in market-making for prediction markets—how to price? How to hedge risk?

https://x.com/QuantVela/status/2015440805725700420

i found some really interesting for perp trading.

what's breaking my brain is 98% of volume comes from RWAs. not crypto

REAL WORLD ASSETS

$XAU $XAG at all time high and @ostium did:
- $25B cumulative vol
- $200M OI
- 2,600 weekly users

people are trading Platinum perps onchain. hit $50M open interest. PLATINUM

65% APY for LPs in the USDC vault = there's REAL demand here
https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2015802053730414685

: : [Issue] How Effective is Polymarket FDV Prediction Market?

https://x.com/FourPillarsFP/status/2012077911613063257

👻 Threading Daily — 26.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Gold, silver, platinum again hit ATHs
- BoJ JGB holdings near 10 year lows
- Trump sues JP Morgan, Dimon over debanking
- French budget crisis may lead to elections
- France seizes Russia linked oil tanker
- EU leaders still fear for US relationship
- BofA, Citi weigh credit cards with 10% rates
- SpaceX hiring banks for 2026 IPO

🔖Crypto News
- ETH leads majors lower despite macro strength
- ETH activity bump wont last: JP Morgan
- Thailand to allow crypto ETFs, futures trading
- S Korea probes disappearance of seized BTC
- Fink calls for ‘one common blockchain’
- Revolut to apply for US banking license
- Binance applies for EU license in Greece
- LINK buys transaction ordering solution Atlas
- Zama public auction hits $100M in TVS
- SuperState raises $82.5m for RWA tokenisation
- Farcaster set to pay back investors $180m

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- What happens when holders sell? — Delphi
- Copper - Your Millionaire Ticket — futurist_lens
- Clawdbot: An Open-Source AI Assistant That Works 24/7 via Your Messaging Apps — noahepstein_
- Clawdbot Showed Me What the Future of Personal AI Assistants Looks Like — macstories
- How to Run Clawdbot with Docker/ Local Hosting — Eli5

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @equationlabs, Bio: N/A
- @MentorableHQ, Bio: Buy minutes with the people you want to learn from - or earn by discovering great experts early. base.app/app/mentorable.xyz
- @Obscuratexyz, Bio: Privacy infrastructure for the Agentic economy, native to UCP. obscurate.xyz

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

The Ultimate CVD Guide: Fundamentals, Tools, and Tactics

https://x.com/exitpumpBTC/status/2015394303791489246

Interesting things in DeFi Part 1

https://x.com/Wajahat/status/2015026381575352692

My Crypto Narratives Tier List for 2026

These narratives will define this cycle—ranked by conviction.
🧵

https://x.com/flowslikeosmo/status/2015099805241164063

Here’s the 15min Setup Guide to How I Build My New AI Intern at $0 with Clawdbot

I didn’t hire but BUILD a new intern that works for me across my apps: Telegram, Emails, Browser, Discord, Twitter, Google Meetings and all other apps.

You will need a Mac mini (or read below for the FREE hack)… and installed an AI agent on it.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2015338781164052787

How to Create Realistic AI Voices (Full System)

https://x.com/Mho_23/status/2015084338908385760