TGViewer
Threading on the Edge Threading on the Edge @threadingontheedge · 7.75K subscribers
Post #4172 456
The two biggest headaches in market-making for prediction markets—how to price? How to hedge risk?

https://x.com/QuantVela/status/2015440805725700420
X (formerly Twitter) Vela (@QuantVela) on X 做市预测市场最头疼的两大难题，如何定价？如何对冲风险？在这篇论文里得到了解决方案🤯 就像期权，预测市场也需要自己的 Black-Scholes 定价模型。当我们交易的不是代币，而是信念，要如何定价概率？@DaedalusRsch 提出了信念波动率曲面。 预测市场做市的盈利来自于 bid ask 之间的 spread、以及
Open in Telegram All posts from @threadingontheedge
More from @threadingontheedge
  1. Oct 15, 2026Severely mispriced launchpad with novel tech and a working flywheel. https://x.com/Flowsli…
  2. Oct 15, 2026Crypto + Macro Stuff I'm Looking At Today https://x.com/rektdiomedes/status/21104866946970…
  3. Oct 14, 2026Crypto has been the best-performing asset class over the last 60 days. I think there’s a g…
  4. Oct 13, 2026Inference teams worth keeping an eye on this cycle actual computer (SN95) antseed blockrun…
  5. Oct 13, 2026RWA perps: where does cross-venue arbitrage come from? https://x.com/schemacap/status/2108…
  6. Oct 13, 2026The Beauty Of Yield Farming (+ Old School FrenchChart Breakdown Of Exquisite Strat) https:…
Threads Profile ViewerView any public Threads profile without an account.Open ThreadLook →Writing with AI? Make it sound human.Metric37 rewrites AI drafts so they read naturally. Free AI detector, 1,500 words free.Try Metric37 →