Threading on the Edge

base won the L2 wars and it's not even close anymore

read this properly: $178M all-time revenue. 24% of total L2 revenue.

here's what i noticed. base isn't trying to be decentralized or community-owned or any of that stuff other L2s pretend to care about. it's just @coinbase chain.

centralized af. and it's winning BECAUSE of that

@arbitrum at $134M.@Optimism at $115M. the gap is WIDENING

the results are exactly what you'd expect when you have 100M+ users in one ecosystem

10M daily transactions now.
5B all-time since launch.

@baseapp launching. rumors of token or prediction markets or tokenized stocks.

doesn't even matter what it is, if it's integrated with coinbase's user base it'll do volume. distribution is the only moat that matters

$ARB and $OP had head starts. better tech arguably. more decentralized. doesn't matter. distribution beats tech every single time

this is the @BNBCHAIN playbook except executed way better. BNB Chain won through binance distribution. base feels too legitimate because coinbase is regulated

how i read this:
- if base launches token with coinbase distribution backing it's instantly top 20 by market cap. maybe top 10. retail will ape because coinbase makes it one-click easy
- base token rumors probably real. coinbase wants to capture more value from the ecosystem they built. token makes sense. incentivizes usage. creates new revenue stream. gives users ownership feel while coinbase maintains control
- the L2 narrative was supposed to be about scaling ethereum. instead it became about who has best distribution channel. base won that competition before it even started
- rollup tech is commoditized now. op stack is open source. anyone can spin up an L2. differentiation isn't technical anymore it's distribution and base has infinite distribution relative to competitors

market will eventually reprice this correctly.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2011062523936862257

heres the thing about all of these other altchains:

stablecoin launching own chains
neobanks launching own chains
banks launching own own chains
exchanges launching own chains
superapps launching own chains
games launching own chains
nft launching own chains

whats going to happen to these other chains

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010589951050781116

PERP DEXs & LAST NEWS

https://x.com/deTEfabulaNar_/status/2010755404360273931

Spot DEX liquidity re-expanded without a narrative catalyst.

Over the last 24 hours, decentralized exchanges processed $9.1B in spot volume. Over the past 30 days, cumulative volume reached $303.0B, up +13.59% WoW. This expansion did not coincide with incentive programs, new token launches, or a broad risk-on tape.

The signal is structural.
Execution demand increased even as positioning remained cautious.

What changed was where flow cleared.

https://x.com/TheDeFiPlug/status/2010648020983984318

👻 Threading Daily — 13.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Odds of Jan rate cut plunge to 4%
- Gold, silver, S&P 500 hit ATH
- DoJ opens criminal investigation into Powell
- Powell says he will remain in Fed position
- Trump calls for 10% cap on credit card rates
- US to discuss Greenland with Denmark on Jan 14
- US ‘looking at’ military operations in Iran
- Trump wants oil execs to invest $100b in Venezuela
- Trump imposes a 25% tariff with Iran's biz countries
- China inflation hits three year high
- Google adds AI shopping to Gemini, adds Walmart
- Instagram suffers data breach

🔖Crypto News
- ETH staking queue highest since 2023
- XRP ETFs hit record weekly volume
- Bitmine added +24,266 ETH
- Whitewhale hits $180m, up 80x in 3 weeks
- Pumpfun overhauls creator fees
- Former NYC mayor creates memecoin that -80% in minutes
- Iran moved $1b through UK crypto exchanges
- Ripple secures FCA authorization in UK
- S Korea ends corporate crypto investments ban
- Dubai moves to ban privacy coins
- Wells Fargo allows BTC as collateral for loans
- a16z raises $15b, pens 3 main trends for crypto
- Rain raises $250m at $2b valuation
- Tennessee bans prediction markets from sports
- Kalshi hits ATH daily volume on Saturday
- Crypto YouTube viewership falls dramatically

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- 3 Key Points from Dan Koe "How to fix your entire life in 1 day" — Eli5
- INSURANCE quietly building real cashflow onchain — arndxt
- 2026 IPO Watchlist: US vs China — Eli5

🔖Raises
- VelaFi (Series B) $20M, Stablecoin-based Financial Infrastructure < XVC, BAI
- Neuramint (Seed) $5M, Web3 AI Agent Platform < Maelstrom, Borderless

🔖Early Projects
- @HadrianInc, Bio: Hadrian builds autonomous factories to Reindustrialize America. Production is deterrence.
- @stormrae_ai, Bio: Turning essential AI tasks into engaging consumer experiences. stormrae.ai
- @ravntools, Bio: Eliminate the Noise. We will NEVER have a token

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

a very odd first 3 top performers:

1) social fi
2) lending
3) ICO
4) ICM
5) AI agents
6) privacy
7) data
8) buybacks
9) neobanks
10) defai
11) defi
12) prediction markets

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010958256714494127

ok so this is actually interesting because like... everyone's been chasing ICOs, RWAs, Neobanks, AI agents and memecoins while insurance...

literal INSURANCE is just quietly building real cashflow onchain

the thing that gets me is reinsurance specifically, this appeared as a narrative a couple of years back and i think it will resurface to be the strongest pmf in crypto.

not even the retail insurance we think about. the insurance FOR insurance companies. $700B market. grows when shit goes wrong (which... always happens?) and @re just hit $400M TVL in under a year doing this.

no token yet. just stablecoins earning yield from actual premiums not some ponzi farm emissions

the reUSDe thing is smart, basically you take on the underwriting risk and get 16-25% APY when claims stay low. when we talk about ownerships coins by @MetaDAOProject like $AVICI its be your own bank meta... and now you're literally the insurance company.

i believe this will be one of those obvious in hindsight plays.

treasuries > bonds > as institutional grows bigger > reinsurance

watching this NEO FINANCE

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010855830720266360

Tier List of Chains that may Shut Down in 2026 🧵

https://x.com/Defi_Warhol/status/2010742901387727292

2026 is consolidating into 3 really big bets where if one fails would result in a short term collapse of the bubble

1. data centers

anthropic, Xai scaling aggressively to 1M gpus. both plan to hit that target by Q2. the resulting models trained on this infrastructure needs to confirm compute scaling law is still effective. otherwise will indicate we need to explore a new model architecture. this is also dependent on energy infrastructure (power shell) being scaled though that’s going to be a problem for the next decade let alone this year.

2. memory

we only have enough memory this year to support 15GW worth of gpus while the hyperscalers are targeting 30-40 over the next 2 years. we’re cutting it kinda close here - if samsung, $MU or sk hynix fck up their production then this will stall bet number 1. also whoever secures majority of this memory capacity to create gpus wins the most within the constrained production capacity and right now that’s $NVDA

3. cheaper, more effective infra

nvidias latest gpu vera rubin is 5X more performant but importantly 4X more compute efficient meaning the inference costs have tanked - frontier intelligence for pennies! there will be an abundance of compute available to train but more importantly use ai this year, so jevons paradox needs to prove itself through rising demand. if that fails then the above two collapse. imo im least concerned about this one - i think agent harnesses and post training RL will continue to strengthen models.

very bullish

https://x.com/cryptopunk7213/status/2010053030625120366

brutal lesson but necessary

lets analyse the @infinex token sale

$100m FDV $3.2M raised from 650 people missing the $5M target vs @ranger_finance raised $86m on @MetaDAOProject

meanwhile other ICOs in the past week: @TroveMarkets went on to raise $11m, @cascade_xyz sold out in 3 seoconds

infinex had synthetix founder. massive following. strong brand. but market said no

heres my take:
- app-layer tokens now priced on demonstrated cashflow
- people want to see revenue model
- fundamental problem was valuation vs demonstrated value
- patron NFT holders paid premium for early access implied equity-like upside but didnt turn up well

this accelerates the separation. protocols with real fee capture will launch successfully. protocols with vague utility stories will flounder regardless of team

defi valuation reset is real and it's accelerating

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010679168120607084

👻 Threading Daily — 12.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Investor bearishness on oil at decade high
- Fed’s Miran wants 150bps rate cuts in 2026
- BoJ likely to raise growth outlook on stimulus
- US considers paying Greenlanders $10-100k
- US to buy $200b mortgage bonds to decrease rates
- US productivity gains at fastest pace in 2 years
- Tariffs haven’t caused surge in inflation: Study
- Iran hit by internet blackout as protests continue
- SC sets Friday as Opinion Day amid tariffs watch
- Saudi Arabia opens equity market to foreign investors
- France, UK to deploy troops in Ukraine peace deal
- UK to exclude finance from push for EU alignment
- China tells tech companies to halt Nvidia H200 orders
- Billionaires exiting California as wealth tax looms
- GM to write down $6b in EV investments
- Alphabet hits ATH, flips Apple market cap
- DeepSeek AI gains traction in EMs: Microsoft

🔖Crypto News
- BTC resilient despite large ETF outflows
- ZEC bounces after devs unveil new wallet
- PIPPIN up 40%, most other memecoins lower
- TRU plunges 99.9% after $26.6m hack exploit
- XMR hits a new all-time high at $554
- Starknet hit a bug, rolled back 18 minutes
- Florida plans BTC reserve
- S Korea to allow crypto ETFs
- Sharplink stakes $170m ETH on Linea
- Morgan Stanley to allow crypto trading, add wallet
- Coincheck buys majority stake in 3iQ for $112m
- X rolling out Smart Cashtags for tracking assets
- Optimism Foundation proposes OP buybacks
- Coinbase threatens to withdraw support for CLARITY Act
- Ranger ICO Concludes
- Trump has no plans to pardon SBF
- FTX Anthropic stake would have been worth $30b
- Vitalik calls for better decentralized stablecoins

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- AI in 2026: 3 trends — a16z
- The Capitulation of the Buyback Narrative — ItsFloe
- Blockchain Privacy - Monero vs Zcash vs Canton Network — Tiger Research
- If you have multiple interests, do not waste the next 2-3 years — thedankoe

🔖Raises
- KOLect (Pre-Seed) $1.2M, KOL Evaluation Platform < amber.ac

🔖Early Projects
- @SunbeamMoney, Bio: The Bitcoin Savings Account. Real Yield in BTC by @asymmetryfin x @yearnfi Coming very soon.
- @RavaMoney, Bio: Tokenized assets need real settlement valuations, and Rava is building the on chain tri-party settlement system that provides them. Inquires: general@rava.money rava.money

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

The Reach Allowance is REAL.
I made a site for you to check how much you have left...

http://ReachAllowance.com

No need to connect anything, just type a username or anyones name in and check

https://x.com/EasyEatsBodega/status/2010162012572279206

Yeah.. basically @solana is the only chain you need:

https://x.com/molusol/status/2010033918205161472

that 265k bet on polymarket cooked so hard based on one simple thesis:
ALL METADAO ICO COOKS

nonetheless, 14x oversubbed, $86mil raised by @ranger_finance's ico on @MetaDAOProject.

i have my conviction well placed in this ico. we are in the ico season and people demand more ownership, futarchy wins.

Every verified launch via $META has traded well above its ICO price and every single one is still holding above ICO today.
$AVICI +687%
$UMBRA +370%
$OMFG +427%
$SOLO +80%

anything Solana, MetaDAO and revenue generating is the playbook.

now we will see more projects FOMO to want launch on MetaDAO and people will soon be max aping.

the aping sesaon has began.

some other launchpads which are interesting:
@echodotxyz by cobie, got acquired by coinbase
@legiondotcc recently did @solsticefi ico
@LaunchOnSoar similar model to @MetaDAOProject
@stardotfun did a first sale for @surfcashx cooked well, next up @fairscalexyz on 19 jan
@KaitoAI did some launches but didnt turn out wonderful
@buidlpad launches always cooks
@JupiterExchange DTF did $WET @humidifi sale sold out in 1 second, 100% botted, but i think launches there could cook

if you think the team can retire from the funds raised, wrong, they gotta ship, hit milestones/kpis to get paid and get their unlocks. if anything investors in the ico are probably richer than the team.

keep shipping keep printing, looking forward to $RNGR tge

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2010032412395483329

I made 44% profit in one day thanks to the new Polymarket liquidity rewards

https://x.com/0xMaidez/status/2009600596504973358

here's my 2026 decoupling theory.

- btc/majors vs onchain activity
- onchain activity will keep cooking because gambling demand is infinite. but it's decoupling from "crypto" as normies understand it
- stocks are the new altcoins
- gold is the new btc
- onchain hypergambling cannot be superseded
stocks

unfortunate but it seems to be getting more true

so we're splitting into two completely different markets:

1) btc/eth becoming institutional macro assets competing with stocks and gold for normie attention and losing
2) onchain activity becoming pure hypergambling venue for people chasing asymmetric returns

normies are done with crypto. novelty wore off. comparable returns in stock market without rug risk without bundlers without wallet drainers without the constant paranoia. why would they stay

retail got absolutely destroyed maybe they're not coming back

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2009925191418462340

➥ The Walls Are Down - XRP is Now Multi-chain Asset

https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/2009551743726874958

The Market Gave You 5 Bull Runs. You Married The First One.

It’s been a while since I’ve written about my thoughts about equities sector, but I think it’s time to share some thoughts on what I’ve been seeing in the markets lately.

As I mentioned recently, I’ve been pivoting more into commodities, forex, equities and boy, has it been a learning experience.

This administration gave us a lot of bull markets to chase.

Not one bull market. Multiple. Rotating. Overlapping.

And that distinction matters, because it changes how you should think, position, and most importantly, how you should not get hypnotized by whatever is making headlines this week.

What I hear in this conversation isn’t “metals good, AI bad” or “Trump means lower rates.”

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2009616473296425225

FULL article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/the-market-gave-you-5-bull-runs-you

👻 Threading Daily — 09.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- US ISM Services PMI hits 14 month high
- US job openings decline to lowest in more than a year
- Tariffs haven’t caused surge in inflation: Study
- Trump wants 50%+ increase in defense budget
- SC sets Friday as Opinion Day amid tariffs watch
- Saudi Arabia opens equity market to foreign investors
- France, UK to deploy troops in Ukraine peace deal
- China tells tech companies to halt Nvidia H200 orders
- JP Morgan agrees take over of Apple credit card
- Anthropic raising $10b at $350b valuation

🔖Crypto News
- Altcoins continue to fall amid ETF outflows
- Major memecoins fall 5-15%
- ZEC falls 20% after devs quit to form new company
- Total AUM of tokenized stocks surpasses $1b
- JP Morgan to roll out JPM Coin on Canton
- FINRA taps crypto policy figures for its board
- Polymarket signs exclusive deal with Dow Jones
- Fireblocks to buy crypto accounting firm TRES
- Prince Group chairman arrested, deported to China
- WLFI seeks bank charter to bring USD1 onshore
- Vitalik: ETH similar to BitTorrent, Linux
- Riot sells $162m BTC with hashprice back to lows
- Binance launches tradfi perp trading
- Coinbase: Copper and Platinum Futures lives on 26-Jan
- a16z buys $15m BABY to fund BTCVaults
- SKR set for airdrop to Seeker users

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- 3 Reasons Why Buybacks Fail — chingtsengtw
- 3 ways Crypto Goes Beyond Crypto in 2026 — a16z
- ETH: Increasing bandwidth is safer than reducing latency — Vitalik

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @ManusAI, Bio: Manus from @Meta is the general AI agent that bridges minds and actions: it doesn't just think, it delivers results. Download our app: manus.im
- @jup_predict, Bio: Trade the outcome of everything from global events to crypto benchmarks. jup.ag/prediction
- @tryParallax, Bio: serve AI everywhere. powered by @gradient_hq

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

the COUNTDOWN has began

you only have 6 days left to use UNLIMITED credits on @elfa_ai, after that you gotta pay.

i have the hack for you: i have limited x10 golden tickets to give out for elfa AI premium which gets you free credits, half fees, more rebates

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tldr on how you maximize the tool:
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been using it for weeks now. the problem it solves is so simple but so necessary, I don't want to scroll CT for 20 minutes to figure out why some random token is pumping

what I like:
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with the golden you get a Gold Tier Membership, which gets you:
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this isn't sponsored btw just genuinely useful and figured I'd share since I've been sitting on the platform for a while

also, i will be participating in the trading competition with a $10k prize pool, you win when you have the highest portfolio PnL % gain.

time is the only asset you can't get back, make that few days count or get the golden ticket.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2009276951492735350