Threading on the Edge

gmeow frens, i am a pure fan

the plushies have always been stealing my heart!! get them with exclusive code: NOX

i'm dropping some support for my friend @ellie_nfts here, an avid @HyperliquidX community member and builder and starting out her online shop selling $HYPE merchs

if you have been to the events that she organize, you will know just how amazing these events + merch are

you just cant get enough of them

drop some her support if you like it

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2009180815159382304

👻 Threading Daily — 08.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- S&P 500 short interest at decade high
- Futures stable after S&P 500 and Dow hit ATH
- Traders bet Panama Canal will be next US target
- Venezuela to give 30-50m barrels oil to US: Trump
- Trump weighs using military to acquire Greenland
- Trump fears impeachment if Dems win midterms

🔖Crypto News
- Bitcoin capital inflows have dried up: Ki Young Ju
- Bitwise outlines 3 checkpoints for 2026 rally
- Barclays makes its first stablecoin investment
- Wyoming the first US state to issue a stablecoin on Solana
- Ripple says it has no plans for an IPO
- Aave's Horizon RWA crossed $600M net deposits
- Tether Gold introduces Scudo
- Tether x Rumble to launch Rumble wallet
- Kalshi crosses $100B in annualized volume
- Solana mobile sets $SKR on Jan 21 (2am UTC)

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The Case for Selling $OP Before $BASE — FourPillarsFP
- The $400k Bet: Unmasking the 'Maduro Insider' on Polymarket — Jun__Yoo
- Why Circle Is Expanding Its Stablecoin Stack — FourPillarsFP

🔖Raises
- jpeg, Social prediction game < Scott, Cindy
- Ubyx, Payment clearing system based on stableoin < Barclays Corp & Investment Bank
- Babylon $15M, Bitcoin Staking Protocol < a16z
- Tres.finance (M&A) $130M, Web3 accounting software < Fireblocks

🔖Early Projects
- @AbraFiOrg, Bio: Bringing tokenized assets to the world. First product is USDAF… converts your USDC/USDT to a high yield savings token! abrafi.org
- @pallas_vault, Bio: Maximize yield, minimize risk. Opening soon for private beta.
- @0xProbable, Bio: Onchain prediction market on @BNBCHAIN, backed by @PancakeSwap & @yzilabs | Join the community: discord.com/invite/0xprobable

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

moving well as expected

shorting gold 4430

SL: 4434
TP: 4400

gm frens

system screwed up and all my trades were placed yesterday

even web2 trading platforms can rug

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2009120626460536955

Found something interesting

https://x.com/KamuiHQ

in fact i think many are missing out on a lot projects that FEW talks about on CT but did way much more % gains or benefiting the community much more

and aside from these highly talked about projects, there are plenty more out there

most of you are farming the same 15 overhyped protocols getting overfarmed while real winners sit right here 👇

fundamentally strong projects

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2008844068567368103

This is alpha.

I’m not saying every one of these projects will deliver a good airdrop in 2026.

But if you choose around 10 projects you like and stay focused on them by being an active member of their communities, it’s hard to imagine you won’t benefit in 2026.

Bookmark this, you’ll need it.

https://x.com/the_smart_ape/status/2008690071239610721

👻 Threading Daily — 07.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Silver hits another ATH
- Fed expands balance sheet to $6.6T
- Trump blocks chip deal on China concerns
- China expected to advance market reform this year
- China-Japan trade tensions escalate
- Japan 30yr yield hits another ATH
- JGB 10yr yield climb to fresh 1999 high
- Ueda highlights BoJ’s intention to keep raising rates
- UK set to need to raise taxes again
- Thousands stranded as Greek airspace disrupted
- X payouts increase by a factor of 3-4x
- xAI raises $20b in Series E funding

🔖Crypto News
- Ripple reaffirms no IPO plans
- Morgan Stanley files for BTC, SOL ETFs
- Banks question stablecoin yield ‘loophole’
- DATs won’t be excluded from MSCI for time being
- Crypto.com x Stripe to enable crypto payments
- Polymarket adds fees to 15-min crypto market
- Lighter rolls out 24/5 equity perps trading

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Privacy Trends for 2026 — a16z
- Stablecoins Are a Rail, Not a Brand — Artemis
- New Essay “Suavemente” — Arthur Hayes

🔖Raises
- HabitTrade (Series A), Technological Financial Services < StableStock, Newborn

🔖Early Projects
- @viamrobotics, Bio: The robotics platform built for speed and scale.
- @fideliomarkets, Bio: Real-world markets. On-chain execution.

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

my thesis on ownership coins have gotten only stronger + a $265k bet on polymarket for ranger ico to go beyond $20m

raised $1m in the first 20mins

all these became clearer with @MetaDAOProject ecosystem validation

my bullish thesis for $RNGR:
- team earns NOTHING unless they 2x the price minimum. I've never seen before in crypto. no dump possible because there's nothing to dump
- 90-day buy wall. team gets 0% at TGE with 18-month cliff that only unlocks at 2x-32x milestones
- they are absolute chads at building dashboards and analytics; see their ico tracker and their analytics for perp dexs OI, vol
- OWNERSHIP coins wins, i have high and full conviction on $META flywheel ecosystem and forming a big part of my thesis for 2026

@ranger_finance is solana's first perpdex aggregator. liquidity on sol is fragmented everywhere, @DriftProtocol, @HyperliquidX, @JupiterExchange and more venues. traders manually picking execution paths getting worse fills

ranger sits above as routing layer. you want best execution it finds it across all venues. don't own liquidity just route it smarter

the metadao ico details:
- jan 6-10 sale
- $6M minimum raise
- you commit USDC upfront team later decides how much capital they accept which sets final price
- 10M $RNGR tokens (39% of supply)
- 100% unlocked at TGE
- ranger points create reserved allocation bucket. reduces whale crowdout. rewards actual users not just capital
- excess capital beyond what they need goes to 90-day buy wall
- creates automatic buy floor
- reduces farm-and-dump pressure during price discovery

polymarket shows 90%+ chance of exceeding $20M commitments. market clearly interested

bull case is obvious:
- if ranger becomes the skyscanner of solana perps you stop going direct to platforms you just use ranger.
- aggregation layer captures all flow
- team vesting is insane bullish signal.
- 18 months before any unlock and only if price performs.
- they're literally betting everything on delivering. 100% locked in
- buy wall protects downside. not just instant dump to zero like most launches

bear case though:
- dual competition problem
- competing with drift, jupiter for users
- if jup expands perps properly ranger gets crushed by distribution monster
- 18 month lockup shows confidence but that's forever in crypto, market downturn or sol fatigue and team is stuck. no token compensation. burnout risk. talent leaves
- if hype pushes commitments to $100M+ and team accepts large amount entry price might be way too high for low-margin aggregator business.
- someone just dropped $265K into ranger market. either insider or true believer. polymarket odds suggest $20M+ is likely

either way this is the most interesting tokenomics experiment happening right now on solana

ownership > extraction.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2008814634732773513

You can be right and still lose if you’re early

Crypto in 2025 looked less like finance and more like advertising.

Markets (always) moved fast, valuations > fundamentals, and yet the real work, building, surviving vesting cliffs, still moved at human speed.

The defining variable of 2025 was not price. It was time.

Time exposed fragile cap tables, fragile traction, fragile security, and fragile leverage. It punished anything that required just a few more months to become real.

I spent the year living inside that contradiction: switching from a defensive support role into an investing deal + execution role, while watching projects pump and dump around, and trying to stay honest about what everything else say.

This is my post-mortem of 2025 and what I’m carrying into 2026.

(read till the end for that, will drop some of the projects that I will be bullish on in 2026)

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2007074378455134655

FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/you-can-be-right-and-still-lose-if

my airdrop farming plans for 2026...

https://x.com/defi_explora/status/2008565499945513170

the simplest way to start "vibe coding" with no experience

https://x.com/resdegen/status/2008277182238343636

Crypto, Combat Sports, Ego, And Self-Defeat

https://x.com/rektdiomedes/status/2008553226044412180

in my previous post i shared @Polymarket inefficencies and the core insight here by @the_smart_ape amplifies that sure WIN strategy

the thesis is if markets are correlated but lag, there's alpha in the delay

market inefficiencies = lag = edge

what's interesting:

- blue line moves first, green follows minutes later following
@infinex
example, pattern is visible and repeats
- correlation range 0.8-0.99 is the sweet spot. too perfect = no opportunity, too loose = noise
- negative correlations (<-0.85) same mechanics, inverse bets

why this might work:

- polymarket way less efficient than tradfi
- retail dominated = slower info propagation
- binary outcomes = cleaner correlation patterns than continuous pricing
- longer lag windows appear wider than traditional pairs trading

concerns:

- correlations break during news events. prediction markets != seismic signals, correlations can collapse instantly
- automated bot kills the edge once others copy. self-arbitraging
- need more data on: actual hit rate, typical lag duration, follow-through %, slippage
- free telegram alerts = everyone sees same signal = who gets filled first matters

but this only works until it doesn't. edge exists in inefficiency. tool makes inefficiency visible → inefficiency disappears

would need to see backtested PnL before taking seriously. correlation ≠ profitability

that said... if hit rate is decent and you're first, this WILL PRINT

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2008579579812999656

so here's what I'm actually seeing and it's making me rethink everything: thanks to this piece by @Flowslikeosmo

crypto feels different now.

it hit me when a friend recently says "crypto isn't cool anymore"... man that hit me hard.

because he's right? like when's the last time you felt excited about a new protocol launch vs just calculating airdrop ROI

been thinking about this shift all week and I can't unsee it now

prediction markets are genuinely more interesting than 90% of defi apps. they're actually solving the problem that crypto still struggles with. you open polymarket, you immediately understand the value prop. you open most defi protocols? 15min learning curve just to figure out what they even do

and honestly the institutional narrative is killing the vibe that made this space attractive in the first place. schwab getting involved, JPMorgan building "RAILS"....yeah its cool but the young lawless/degen energy that drove the 100,000% APY, lambo gains is evaporating

I keep coming back to this: stablecoins did $200B to $300B and $1T volume while everyone was yapping about AI agents and memecoin casino runs. ACTUAL UTILITY was cooking in silence while CT lost their minds over $PIPPIN cabals

perp dexs printing $500M+ (hyperliquid) while CEXs are literally stealing money (bybit hack largest in history??). but also... most people still don't care enough to leave the CEX. which tells you something about where we actually are in adoption

super apps thesis is so obvious yet so underpriced. @phantom adding perps + prediction markets + card = they GET IT. distribution compounds.

normies (EVEN MYSELF) don't want 47 browser tabs. they want one place for everything.

so we're stuck in this weird middle state where:

- fundamentals are actually improving (regulatory clarity, real adoption, better infra)
- but culture is dying (attention leaving, influencers pivoting, retail exhausted)
- and valuation multiples are getting wrecked because the speculative premium is gone

2026 is going to separate builders from tourists so violently that projects with actual moats (distribution, real users, solving problems) will compound quietly and everything else will fade

I'm honestly more bullish long-term than I've been in years but medium term this could get uglier before it gets better. because transitional phases are brutal and most people won't have the stomach for it

privacy is coming though. $ZEC 800% YTD. people are TIRED of being watched on-chain. I am TIRED

idk maybe I'm overthinking this but the vibes are just...different.

anyway locking in on fundamentals, ignoring noise.

building for 2027 not next week

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2008437394719338874

Hold up. You’re telling me Infinex’s 60 employees average 18K USD per month?!?

220K per annum?!? EACH?!?

Forget about the ICO
Sign me up for a job!

https://x.com/kirbyongeo/status/2008412032106983602

👻 Threading Daily — 06.01.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- This week: PMI, Jobs and Consumer Sentiment data
- US captures Maduro, Energy prices fall
- Trump warns Venezuela to meet US demands
- Trump allows Venezuela’s VP to lead the country
- China calls on US to release Maduro
- After Venezuela, Colombia could be next for US
- Trump: We need Greenland for national security

🔖Crypto News
- Memes top performers in early 2026, PEPE up 70%
- Hot coins: PEPE, FARTCOIN, BONK, REKT, PENGU
- Hot NFTs: Pudgies, BAYC, Milady, Moonbirds, Azuki
- Most top NFT collections up 20-40% in a week
- Crypto rallies as market digests Maduro capture
- BoA: Clients can invest 4% of portfolio in crypto
- Aave may share non-protocol rev with token holders
- BTC Core development activity rebounded in 2025
- ETH daily transactions hit ATH
- ETH Foundation establishes dAI team
- Coinbase to pause Peso services in Argentina
- Bezos’ Blue Origin now accept ETH for space travel
- Bitfinex hacker Lichtenstein is being released early
- Jupiter introduces JupUSD
- FOGO airdrop, mainnet set for Jan 13
- Infinex ICO live, tepid interest
- Ledger suffers another data breach
- MegaETH: Cap has been deployed
- Real Estate now live on Polymarket, powered by Parcl

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- A Quick Overview of Decentralized Finance — Binance
- Ethereum Was Created to Set People Free, Not to Make Finance Efficient or Apps Convenient — Vitalik
- 2025 - A Reflection on the Mechanics of What Happened, Particularly in the Markets — Ray Dalio

🔖Raises
- Boings.ai (Seed), Web3 Value Collaboration Network < Landscape, Hotcoin

🔖Early Projects
- @SuperEarnX, Bio: Earn like a Pro. Secure, Smart, Simple. superearn.io
- @pickle, Bio: The Era of Soul Computing.
pickle.com
- @StabilizerFi, Bio: Zero-slippage stablecoin DEX 🤖

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

145 projects for airdrops in 2026

🧵

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2008131137466679577