Threading on the Edge

$AVICI continues to uphold the standards of neobanking for the people

ranked number 3 in terms of number of transactions after @ether_fi and after a very interesting contender @gnosispay

not sure to be embarrassed or proud at this point to see @AviciMoney doing more transactions than @MetaMask

and refer to my thesis earlier about my "fat apps", only few will survive, no doubt $AVICI here could be one of them

convince me otherwise

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1999997030773694968

this isnt alpha, but in the spirit of thanksgiving and christmas, i strongly urge everyone to take a pause and lend me 3 secs of your time.

not only in crypto, the incentive structure has always designed to extract, not give.

so i thought to give a shoutout to and support my friend @YashasEdu for his fundraising effort to build schools and fund kids education.

its NOT your 20B fdv project alright, actual schools, actual kids getting their education paid for.

@ashen_one is also, another friend of mine who is also building @telagacharity for a few years now and built a school in indonesia entirely from his own money.

i strong urge charitable souls to speak to @ChainforGood, a initiative by @Bybit_Official to fund impact driven projects, to explore further collaboration initiatives.

if you guys need a connect with them, drop me a DM and i would be glad to make things happen.

if you are wondering, this is clearly NOT a paid ad

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1999417214970265769

👻 Threading Daily — 12.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Fed cuts rate by 25bps, but 3 dissents
- Fed launches $40b bond purchase program
- Silver continues hitting new ATHs
- Oracle disappoints on cloud sales, falls 11%
- AI stocks down after Oracle earnings
- Mexico hits Asian nations with 50% tariffs
- US seizes oil tanker of Venezuelan coast
- Elon confirms SpaceX IPO plans

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto whipsaws then falls on cautious Fed
- IBIT sees largest single day net inflow
- American Bitcoin buys $38m BTC
- BitMine buys $113m more ETH
- Japan moves crypto from payments to securities law
- Bhutan debuts TER, a gold backed token on SOL
- Cascade plans 24/7 perps for all asset classes
- Vitalik ‘impressed’ with Fileverse’s development
- SEI to pre-install crypto app on Xiaomi devices
- Gemini wins CFTC approval for prediction markets
- Meteora buys back $10.6m MET
- Fogo token sale to start at $1bn FDV

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- 17 Things We’re Excited About for Crypto in 2026 — a16z
- No Cap, Just Cap - Introducing Verifiable Finance — Four Pillars
- Stablecoin 101 Resources — chuk_xyz

🔖Raises
- LI.FI $29M, Cross-chain bridge aggregation protocol < Multicoin, CoinFund

🔖Early Projects
- @the_goblin_fi, Bio: Building a native yield layer for @Aptos 🌐 Defi. Check here 👉: linktr.ee/goblin_official
- @railnet_org, Bio: Open yield layer for programmable asset management railnet.org
- @deepsense_live, Bio: The first live-powered prediction markets for trading everything: sports, entertainment, crypto, tech, and more.
- @netbackyard, Bio: Financial Backbone for Compute internetbackyard.com

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

👻 Threading Daily — 11.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- China will restrict access to Nvidia’s chips
- Biotech sector has biggest rally in a decade
- EU races to bypass Orban on Russian assets
- Ukraine, EU ready to present peace plan to US
- SpaceX plans IPO at $1.5T valuation
- Elon argues for data centers in space
- Paramount makes $108b hostile bid for Warner Bros.

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto surges on eve of FOMC decision
- ETH continues to lead majors, breaks out vs BTC
- Atkins plans quick action on crypto priorities
- Silk Road wallets move BTC after decade
- Circle tests privacy preserving wrapped USDC
- Zcash goes live on Arkham amid criticism
- KindlyMD gets $210m USDT loan from Kraken
- Systemic leverage has been flushed out: Coinbase
- Upbit to increase user assets in cold wallets to 99%
- Stripe’s Tempo testnet goes live
- Stripe acquires Valora wallet team
- Doodles launches 25k mint on SOL
- Rainbow wallet to ICO on Coinlist
- Octra ICO set for $200m FDV
- Fogo announces presale of 2% of supply
- Polymarket accused of double counting volume

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Big Ideas 2026 - Part 1 — a16z
- 2026 Investment Outlook — Archetype
- The Anatomy of a Crypto Neobank — Messari

🔖Raises
- Goblin (Strategic) $1M, Liquidity strategy layer on Aptos < OKX, Gate
- Real Finance $29M, Layer1 blockchain < Nimbus, Magnus
- Surf $15M, Crypto AI command hub < Pantera, Coinbase
- TenX $22M, Multi-blockchain staking platform < Borderless, Chorus

🔖Early Projects
- @CrownBRLV, Bio: Redefining digital money in emerging markets. Issuer of BRLV, a BRL-backed stablecoin built for safety, liquidity, and compliance.
- @ArchDAOfi, Bio: The Market of Ideas: turning governance into a market. Don’t vote, bet on the best ideas. Built on @Base.
- @intelligenceco, Bio: The General Intelligence Company Of New York - Our mission is to enable the one person one billion dollar company cofounder.co

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

i've been analyzing the yield infrastructure space and Solid's positioning is interesting.

while 60% of crypto holders earn 0% on stables, $1B+ has already flowed to yield-bearing stablecoin holders.

banks at 0.5%, top defi at 8-14%.

@SolidYield thesis: aggregate @Morpho / @pendle_fi yields + visa rails + non-custodial UX.

no gas, no bridging, passkey auth.

essentially @Revolut UX with DeFi backend.

points program live with 5× early multiplier.

standard airdrop farming playbook but the product actually ships.

worth monitoring if you're yield-positioned.

here is a table of comparison across @Revolut @yield @KASTxyz @ether_fi 👇

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998763936485880014

IRS in crypto will be first and best use case to onboarding institutions and their billions

It’s Boros

https://x.com/neoo_nav/status/1998328625972891909?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

rekt got me thinking deeper about how we moralize work itself.

we've inherited this calvinist impulse to justify our labor through transcendent purpose, but most human work throughout history has been neither noble nor ignoble, just necessary.

real estate and medicine contain their corruptions, but the real insight is that all economic coordination involves trade-offs between efficiency and exploitation, innovation and extraction. crypto's transparency about these dynamics is perhaps its most honest feature, not its worst.

we're comparing crypto not to actual alternatives (corporate monotony, rent-seeking industries, bureaucratic stagnation) but to idealized versions of "meaningful work" that exist more in our imagination than reality. even the noble examples, hospice care, political resistance, are available to vanishingly few and often psychologically unsustainable.

but here's the core. value in work stems from three sources: immediate human impact, contribution to improvement, and personal development. crypto skeptics fixate on the first while dismissing the latter two. building infrastructure for financial sovereignty, experimenting with coordination mechanisms, developing technical expertise, these aren't nothing.

the current existential despair is real but misattributed. it's not that crypto is uniquely hollow, it's that we're collectively grappling with the gap between technological possibility and human flourishing. crypto happens to crystallize this tension rather than resolve it.

the strongest defense isn't that crypto is maximally noble, but that it's legitimately useful in a world of imperfect options. sometimes the right question isn't "Is this the highest calling?" but "Does this move things forward?"

progress compounds even when purpose remains elusive.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998697760196014588?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

👻 Threading Daily — 10.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- BLS will not publish Oct PPI report
- US equity risk premium now negative
- Trump imposes tariff on Mexico on water restrictions
- Google hit with EU antitrust investigation
- EU threatens to dump treasuries if Ukraine deal fails
- Europe going in some bad directions: Trump
- Thailand jets conduct strikes in Cambodia
- China ramps up Saudi oil purchases
- Australia requires minimum age for social media use
- US to allow export of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto dips as Fed meeting set to begin
- HYPE hits $27, DAT to do $30m stock buyback
- Europe largely drove BTC’s Nov selloff
- Canada: 40% crypto users evading taxes
- Ruya first Islamic bank to offer BTC trading
- Strategy buys $963m BTC, BitMine buys 138k ETH
- SEC ends Biden era investigation into Ondo Finance
- BlackRock moves to add staked ETH ETF
- Vitalik proposes futures market on gas fees
- Tether to expand USDT across 9 chains in ADGM
- Ripple’s $500m stock sale includes profit guarantees
- Hashkey launches IPO seeking $215m
- Binance suspends employee for insider trading
- Circle to collab with Bybit on USDC adoption
- Coinbase to list PLUME, JUPITER
- Farcaster shifts to wallet after social fails
- Monad is a high FDV, low float VC trap: Hayes

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- HyENA Introduction: Built by Based, Powered by Hyperliquid HIP-3 and Ethena USDe
- Vitalik Praises EF’s Breakthrough in P2P Networking With PeerDAS

🔖Raises
- Cascade $15M, Crypto brokerage firm < Coinbase, Polychain
- Ezeebit (Seed) $2.5M, Cryptocurrency payments company < The Raba Partnership, Founder Collective

🔖Early Projects
- @forever, Bio: revolutionary t.me/forever
- @NextRare_cards, Bio: You might not know it’s rare yet.
- @youmio_ai, Bio: The agent chain powering the future of onchain AI. youmio.ai
- @unconvAI, Bio: Unconventional AI is rethinking the foundations of a computer to bring biology-scale efficiency to artificial intelligence. unconv.ai

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

stablecoins is the beautiful (lie)

they are crypto's only real product and proof we've failed and then succeeded at everything we promised.

we keep building better pipes

we believed, we create new money, free from state control. however, the truth is we've built better plumbing for moving their money.

anything useful at scale gets regulated. stablecoins are becoming too systematically important to stay in the dark. we'll get licensed, compliant, boring and so the cypherpunk dream dies but the infrastructure wins.

i've made peace with it.

we set out to replace central banks. we ended up replacing correspondent banking.

its a smaller revolution, but it's real.

be honest and stop pretending otherwise.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998337121976017133

we are underestimating the power of users/distribution as a moat.

@Weixin_WeChat is the best example of a superapp in web2

then web3 wallets will be the financial superapps for web2 users in web3

note that actual web3 users probably doesnt care about super apps but would appreciate it because we long degeneracy

i think @phantom here is leading by example, laggard wallets like @Rabby_io @MetaMask is catching on.

for those with distribution strength such as new upcoming wallets and neobanks can easily pivot into this category soon @ether_fi @rainbowdotme @useTria @aave @LidoFinance

productizing your users becauase everyone is building a wallet and/or neobank as they soon start to realize that distribution is the most powerful moat.

and in fact many other hardware/software wallets can easily take that lead as well such as @iSafePal @OneKeyHQ @Trezor @Ledger

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998241025488216459

👻 Threading Daily — 09.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- US M2 supply hits ATH of $22.3T
- US small business bankruptcies hit ATH
- US affordability crisis a hoax: Trump
- EU should be abolished: Elon
- Trump set to launch new AI platform
- SpaceX set to be valued at $800b
- Google searches for ‘Debasement’ hit ATH
- Netflix buys Warner Bros. for $82.7b
- Netflix’s market share could be a problem: Trump

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto rallies after volatile weekend
- Only four L1 tokens are up YTD
- WisdomTree to launch ETH staking fund
- Western Union developing prepaid stablecoin card
- EU plans to shift crypto oversight to ESMA
- Argentina to allow banks to offer crypto trading
- Turkey’s Paribu to buy CoinMENA for $240m
- Poland fails to overturn veto on crypto bill
- Binance gets licenses in Abu Dhabi, shifts operations
- Coinbase returns to India after two-year hiatus
- Robinhood enters Indonesia, acquires crypto firm
- Jupiter admits some cross collateral risk on Lend
- MetaMask integrates Polymarket
- Infinex snapshot for crates today
- Prosecutors push for 12-year prison for Do Kwon
- Crypto fraud network that laundered $815m busted

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- We are still in a gambling supercycle — AWice
- Does Retail Know Better Now? — OxTochi
- Content Creator Hacks & Tips — Eli5

🔖Raises
- MetaComp (Pre-A) $22M, Licensed digital asset financial service platform < Sky9, Eastern...
- Pye (Seed) $5M, Solana's Yield Swap Protocol < Coinbase, Variant...
- Magma Finance $6M, Adaptive liquidity engine on Sui < HashKey, SNZ...
- Crown (Series A) $13.5M, Stablecoin fintech company < Paradigm
- AllScale (Seed) $5M, Crypto-fiat agnostic neobank < YZi, Generative...
- Asgard Finance (Seed) $2.2M, Decentralized Reserve Currency Protocol Based on ASG Token < Robot, Solana...

🔖Early Projects
- @PingMe_xyz, Bio: Making stablecoin payment as simple as sending a message. Just a Ping!
- @banditsdotfun, Bio: Welcome to the Sheriff’s Office. t.me/banditsdotfun

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

liquidity setups adn parallel moves

today its 3am (not 4am) @sodnjm 👀

pondering over this and my best answer is always: consistency and being real to yourself (and others), not just particularly as a creator, which i didnt started out to be one. just so happen i became one

i know there are some things that people wont appreciate you (or me) for. i.e. my weekly macro pulses, boring, no immediate alfa, but if you actually keep track every week, it gives you a strong sentiment of where the markets are heading. or so i have gathered this from comments.

pls keep following and reading, i have put lots of effort in there to curate the macro insights, but if you dont read thats fine, i learn along while i am writing too

a plus for myself

so nothing beats what you love yourself for and what others love to hear more about your thoughts.

i dont care, i'll still do me and continuing be myself

haters say hi, lovers get a hug 🤗

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1998095080318779704

My Current Bias, in One Line

I’m fatalistically bullish on risk assets in the near term, because AI CapEx, affluent-driven consumption, and still-elevated nominal growth are structurally good for profits.

Also, very simply when money gets cheaper to borrow, “risk assets” usually perform positively.

At the same time, I’m deeply skeptical of the story we’re telling ourselves about what this implies for the next decade:

X: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1997985136005251370
FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/my-current-bias-in-one-line

👻 Threading Daily — 08.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Futures higher ahead of inflation data
- Meta rallies on big Metaverse cuts
- OpenAI plans $4.6b Sydney data centre
- Netflix in talks with Warner Bros
- X adds video banners
- Elon fined $140m by European Commission
- Fifa World Cup draw today

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto mixed ahead of PCE
- Sovereign funds buying BTC: Larry Fink
- MiCAR transition period to end Dec 30: Italy
- Argentina SoE YPF could allow crypto payments
- Cloudflare outage hits crypto apps
- Base to support SOL-based assets natively
- VFX, Blockdaemon to offer self-custody DeFi
- Hashkey to begin IPO process next week
- Aster releases H1 2026 roadmap
- Native USDC now linked b/w HyperCore and HyperEVM
- Lighter DEX: ETH perps rolls out spot trading
- Myriad launches Myriad Pools
- Kalshi enters media partnership with CNBC

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- AI is Rewiring the Economy — fintechbrainfood
- I Wasted 8 Years of My Life in Crypto — Kenchangh
- Four Directions Crypto Will Evolve in 2026 — Poopman

🔖Raises
- LayerBank (Pre-Seed) $2.3M, Non-custodial Lending Platform < Torab, Coin Bureau
- Gondor (Pre-Seed) $2.5M, DeFi layer for prediction markets < Maven 11, Castle Island

🔖Early Projects
- @fin, Bio: If banks and payment products could be rebuilt from the ground up today, they would look like Fin.
- @BlynxFi, Bio: Trade on anything, anywhere. Enable blinks to get started. Powered by @solana x @kalshi
- @Magnet_Swap, Bio: The first PropAMM on Ethereum.
- @ReliqFi, Bio: welcome to the temple of hype. pre-deposits open soon

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

Big Crypto Cards List (2025)

https://x.com/obchakevich_/status/1997693956126134740

i've talked about hypergamble capitalism a while ago and this piece accidentally makes the best case for why we're already living in it

@polarthedegen frames this as "hyperfinancialisation" but doesn't realize he is describing something more fundamental, we're not in capitalism anymore.

we're in hypergamble capitalism, a system where the primary economic activity is just betting on bets on bets.

the "ouroboros" described isn't hyperfinancialisation → hypergambling → more hyperfinancialisation. it's that we've reached the endgame where THERE IS NO DISTINCTION between gambling and investing anymore.

0DTE options, meme stocks, prediction markets, calling these "gambling" vs "investing" is a semantic cope. they're all just leveraged bets on vibes.

the part about socialism vs hypergambling as "dual responses" are responses to different stages of the same realization:

socialism = "the system is rigged, we need to redistribute"
hypergambling = "the system is rigged, so i might as well try to win the rigged game"

hypergambling is MORE rational because at least you're playing. socialism is just begging the already-captured government to fix things.

if nobody believes in institutional solutions anymore, so they gamble. this is hypergamble capitalism's primary mechanism: when productive work fails, speculation becomes rational.

when the math says "working hard = staying poor" and "taking risk = maybe rich," opting out OR gambling are BOTH correct answers. the cope is thinking there's a third option. hypergamble capitalism has already priced in that productive work is for suckers.

the Keynes quote about casinos is almost funny now. he was worried capital development would become a byproduct of casino activities. we're past that. we're at the stage where the casino IS the economy. concerning that market is correctly pricing degeneracy and that facilitating degenerate behavior is more profitable than building anything real.

the most valuable companies aren't building anything, they're building better casinos.

it's an INCENTIVE problem. why would anyone choose a good quest when:

building takes 10 years
exits are down 90%
meanwhile some kid made $10M on $TRUMP in 48 hours

you can't shame people into productivity when speculation pays 100x more.

we're in the natural end state of a system where all productive gains have already been captured by existing asset holders. when wage growth is 3% and asset appreciation is 30%, the ONLY rational behavior is to either own assets or gamble to get them.

this is why we've transitioned from capitalism (where capital allocation funds production) to hypergamble capitalism (where capital allocation IS the production).

i don't have a solution. neither does this piece. but at least be honest about what this is, they just don't realize they're writing the obituary.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1997856819679789384

FOMC week! Expecting a volatile week here. The consensus is there will be a rate cut already and market seems to be frontrunning the news here. Were right up against the local highs (resistance) and with the ATH's not too far off now (magnet). Got MA's below for support still. Bulls still control here imo.

BTC and ETH pulled back to its original structure breakout, Wyckoff check across the boards. Price seems to be holding for now so nothing to do but just continue sitting and waiting with our setups. Momentum still looks to be on the bull side here as well, no signs of bear divs yet. Now the hard part of just being patient and letting your trade do its work. Im on the long side and still think its valid here.

ALTs for the most part is trying to hold as well like BTC n ETH. Retest of structure breakouts and consolidations. Dbl bottoms are in, momentum confirmed , and location wise this kinda the best spot in terms of bottom of ranges. Our setups are in action now so just waiting n watching the market now.