Threading on the Edge

We are maturing into a more robust industry and these are obvious concerns that we should solve. @cz_binance shares some salient points.

Privacy is a big and yet touchy topic we are treading on. I have been a long proponent of privacy and that is the basic human right and advantage. As more institutions enter defi, blockchains will serve more of their purpose and become more opaque, they are exercising their privacy right.

I love seeing projects like @brevis_zk @aztecnetwork @CantonNetwork @AleoHQ building in the privacy space. And some recently popping in the @solana ecosystem @UmbraPrivacy @Arcium.

Onchain FX is surely to come. But can we compete with the spreads and fees from what current systems are offering? Love to see how the industry develop more towards tha direction. Current CEXes will roll that out the fastest together with commodity and could perpDEXes compete with that same advantage? No doubt @binance will win in that regard and all other CEXes will follow suit. Their presence in dubai and Abu dabi is a testament of their market dominance and their confidence in delivering that promise to users.

Onchain options is a very neglected topic becuase we’d have not seen them perform well. @TermMaxFi is one that I am pretty bullish on, building on @BNBCHAIN. There are others like @aevoxyz @HegicOptions but use case seems weak while @ProdigyFi a product of options.

Journey will be rough but we will get there.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1997647155297706281

All protocols on @solana to earn yield:

https://x.com/jussy_world/status/1997580795511500881

metaDAO is undervalued and watching CT not understand the flywheel eco + revenue analysis has been very frustrating

again another late night rant

so i’m supposed to be asleep but i saw
@notthreadguy’s take comparing @metadaoproject to @pumpfun and i can’t sleep because this is genuinely one of the most midcurve takes that’s somehow gotten traction recently.

so i thought to elaborate my analysis here and let me walk through why this is completely cooked 👇

X: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1997377025737359561

FULL article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/why-metadao-is-the-real-meta-for

anyway, its 4am when i wrote this. probably should stop doom-thinking crypto's structural problems

...on the decay of crypto's original thesis...

been going through this piece and it's surfacing some things worth unpacking

one, the ideological pipeline and its terminus

the Rand → libertarian → cypherpunk → crypto builder pathway represents an interesting case study in how revolutionary movements get captured by their own incentive structures.

the original vision of cryptographic money as a tool for individual sovereignty had internal logical consistency. the problem is that "build parallel financial systems" and "maximize token value" created fundamentally different optimization targets, and market forces reliably selected for the latter

two, incentive corruption as a systemic (failure) feature

what's fascinating is how quickly the industry converged on casino mechanics despite near-universal rhetoric about financial infrastructure. this isn't a bug or a failure of individual actors, it's what you'd predict when:
- capital allocation rewards narrative over utility
- liquidity enables exit without product-market fit
- token models create perverse feedback loops between speculation and "adoption"

the L1 wars example is perfect: hundreds of billions deployed not because these solved real problems, but because capital was chasing positional bets in a perceived winner-take-all tournament.

net result: massive value destruction with zero progress toward stated goals

three, cognitive warping and calibration loss

the most underrated point here is about losing ability to identify sustainable business models. when you operate in an environment where mcap decouples entirely from fundamentals, you're essentially training your pattern recognition on noise.

valuations become a cult metric and everyone knows the rituals (TVL, transaction counts, "ecosystem growth") but the connection to actual value creation is severed

this creates a selection problem: the people best at navigating crypto are increasingly those whose models of value are least applicable to productive economic activity

four, gamblification as distributed harm

the normalization of zero-sum wealth extraction as business strategy has externalities beyond individual participants. when financial nihilism moves from meme to operating philosophy for millions of young people, you're seeing preference forming.

they're training an entire cohort to view economic participation through a purely extractive lens

the social mobility implications are real: if your model of wealth generation is "find asymmetric bet before others" rather than "create value others will pay for," you're optimizing for lottery thinking. this scales poorly

five, the retrospective justification problem

"do you want to make money or be right" but the more interesting question is whether the industry could have evolved differently, or whether the incentive structure made this outcome overdetermined from the start

my take: the casino was inevitable once tokens became the primary business model. you can't build parallel financial infrastructure when the funding mechanism itself requires speculation to function
been running these dynamics through various frameworks and keep arriving at the same conclusion

this wasn't a case of good tech being misapplied. the incentive design guaranteed this outcome

X: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1997191022464340119

FULL article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/on-the-decay-of-cryptos-original

👻 Threading Daily — 05.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- NASDAQ: 23.5k (+0.22%), Gold: 4254 (+0.28%)
- Oracle CDS highest since 2009 on AI bubble fears
- China's Nvidia Moore Threads surges 400%+
- India cuts rates to 5.25% as CB flags 'weakness'
- Russia: Talks with US on Ukraine positive

🔖Crypto News
- BTC expected to 180K next year: Ripple CEO
- Top Gainers: HASH, ZEC, TRON, OKB
- Top Losers: ICP, HYPE, TAO, NEAR
- XRP hit its highest fear levels since October
- ASTER unveils 2026 H1 roadmap
- SEC exemption for crypto in about a month
- Hassett now likely to be Fed chair
- Tokenization will reinvent finance: Brian Armstrong
- SUI-based ETH first approved
- Lighter launches Spot trading
- Robinhood list $AERO on Spot trading
- Stablecoin adoption could stifle CB control: IMF
- Italy launches 'in-depth' review of crypto risks
- Base launched its Solana bridge on mainnet
- HumidiFi to re-launch WET ICO due to bot
- Schiff & CZ's debate: speculation or real monetary network?
- CNBC x Kalshi for an exclusive multi-year partnership
- Metamask releases Prediction Markets

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- PeerDAS in Fusaka is Significant Because it Literally is Sharding — Vitalik
- Can L1s Compete Against BTC as Cryptomoney? — AvgJoesCrypto

🔖Raises
- DeepNode AI (Strategic) $3M, Decentralized artificial intelligence infrastructure < IOBC, Blockchain Fnd
- TrueNorth (Pre-Seed) $3M, Crypto’s AI discovery engine < cyber Fund, SNZ

🔖Early Projects
- @fin, Bio: If banks and payment products could be rebuilt from the ground up today, they would look like Fin. fin.tech
- @LightkaNFT, Bio: Lightka NFT on Lighter. Art by @meiroru ﾒ 𝕃𝕎𝕆 - 𝕃𝕚𝕘𝕙𝕥𝕜𝕒 𝕎𝕠𝕣𝕝𝕕 𝕆𝕣𝕕𝕖𝕣.
- @OddityMarket, Bio: Pricing reality before it happens. A dramatically different prediction market aggregator.

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

if you listened to their latest townhall, one of the most OG perps on solana is making over $40m in revenue is launching their v3

most people are sleeping on this.

@DriftProtocol been grinding for 3+ years, $135B in volume, $1B TVL, $42M in revenue.

they're the only cross-collateral perp DEX running 47 assets as collateral across 52 pairs.

what excites me is their v3, basically positioning to compete against @binance, and their v3 launches just when binance blockchain week is happening just right before @SolanaConf.

over the past year, $DRIFT has evolved in three critical areas:

• execution speed
• liquidity depth
• trader experience

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1996766245887357363

I've been mapping the derivatives product stack and I found a gap that in fact every ecosystem is facing: a missing options market.

The alpha: BNB Chain processes ~3M daily txns (vs ETH's ~1.2M), hosts $5.5B TVL, yet had ZERO native options infrastructure until @TermMaxFi launched recently.

For context: @ethereum has had @ribbonfinance, @DeriveXYZ (ex-lyra), @HegicOptions, @KyanExchange since 2021-2022.

BNB chain just got their very first and only call/put options market.

I believe TermMax would be the best positioned product amongst all other options protocols.

In the whole of Binance eco, there lies a critical problem. New tokens launching via Binance Alpha typically lack perp support for weeks/months. This creates a liquidity black hole where leverage-seeking traders have zero recourse, you either hold spot or sit out entirely.

With composable options infrastructure, TermMax's solution here is the perfect fit.

Then why would users prefer options > perps for early-stage assets?
- Fixed downside (you pay the premium only), unlimited upside potential.
- No liquidation cascades during -40% wicks. You're buying volatility exposure at known cost, you dont manage the margins.

So this means that for Binance Alpha tokens such as $PIE, $VPAY, etc.), this means that you can:
- Long/short exposure before CEX perp listings
- Hedge existing spot pairs
- On-chain price discovery without perp funding rate bleed

You can finally get leveraged entries with capped risk.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1996596615969386960

👻 Threading Daily — 04.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Futures stable after stocks rebound on crypto bounce
- UK, Japan lead global govt exodus from LT debt
- EU pushes for 70% of critical goods ‘made in Europe’
- Dell donates $6.25b for ‘Trump Accounts’ for kids
- Amazon launches latest AI chip
- Nvidia yet to finalize $100b OpenAI deal
- Altman urges ‘Code Red’ ChatGPT push

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto rebounds on Vanguard entry and rate cut odds
- Pudgy Penguins partner with NHL
- Redemptions live for Moonbirds mystery box
- Sonnet shareholders approve merger for $1b HYPE DAT
- S Korea advances with 2nd phase of crypto act
- EU banks push ahead on EUR stablecoin
- UK passes bill to apply property laws to crypto
- BofA backs 4% crypto allocation cap
- Fusaka is live on Ethereum mainnet
- ETH working on ZK privacy features
- Aave DAO mulls pulling back ‘multichain strategy’
- PYUSD supply has tripled since September
- Jupiter to launch WET ICO
- Kalshi co-founders now self-made billionaires
- He Yi now co-CEO of Binance

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Fusaka Explained in under 2 Minutes — finematics
- Hash Power Diplomacy - The Real Shift Behind Sovereign Mining — Eli5

🔖Raises
- Haiku (Pre-Seed) $1M, On-chain intent trading protocol < Big Brain, Auros...
- Fin (Series A) $17M, Stablecoin-based enterprise-grade payment platform < Pantera, Samsung Next...
- Ostium (Series A) $20M, Bring commodity markets on-chain < General, Jump...

🔖Early Projects
- @tradefoxai, Bio: Prediction market aggregator and prime brokerage. Backed by @alliance and @CMT_Digital.
- @SharpeTerminal, Bio: Professional-grade trading terminal for prediction markets. Advanced orders, comprehensive monitoring, and more. Built by traders.

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

ICOs have been getting some of the best investments lately with @echodotxyz @MetaDAOProject

$AZTEC have already gotten $50m committed in a day, 4 more days to go

this time @Uniswap will have their own ICO launchpad co-built with @aztecnetwork, launching the first Continuous Clearing Auction (CCA) public sale model

i am pretty bullish on $AZTEC token sale this week on Uniswap

i believe it's the HTTPS moment for blockchain.

Aztec have secured backing from Vitalik and Stani (Aave founder) before launch and it's Vitalik's final public angel check that hasn't ICOed yet.

it will be the one of the largest tech being brought to ethereum with programmable privacy with private DeFi, identity, credit, payments.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1996165040718987736

👻 Threading Daily — 03.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Japan 10yr yield highest since GFC
- Silver continues hitting ATHs
- Fed injects $13.5b through overnight repos
- US confirms retroactive tariffs on S Korea
- China factory activity slump extends to longest ever
- ECB refuses to backstop EU’s Ukraine loan
- Apple hits ATH, $4.2T market cap
- DeepSeek debuts new AI models

🔖Crypto News
- BTC miners face toughest margin crunch
- BTC touches $84k then bounces
- Hot NFTs: Infinex Patrons
- Punk floor drops below BTC
- Strategy sets up $1.44b dividend reserve
- BitMine now holds 3%+ of ETH supply
- Germany, Switzerland shut down $1.4b mixer
- S Korea ruling party pushing stablecoin bill
- Huoine Pay shuts down till Jan 5 on bank runs
- Grayscale launches Chainlink Trust ETF ($GLNK)
- Vanguard to allow crypto ETFs on its platform
- YZi Labs launches board coup at BNB DAT CEA
- Kraken to acquire Backed for xStocks expansion
- Yearn recovers $2.4m in stolen assets
- Myriad integrates with Trust Wallet
- Kalshi tokenizes its prediction markets using SOL
- Kalshi, Polymarket post strongest month ever
- Trust Wallet introduces Predictions
- Circle x OpenMind to develop M2M payments
- MetaMask introduces transaction shield
- Uniswap integrates Revolut for crypto onramp

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- How founders can talk with policymakers: A guide — a16z
- 2026 Outlook: Restructuring — FourPillarsFP
- In Defense of Exponentials — hosseeb

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @bfl_ml, Bio: Powering visual intelligence everywhere. join us: bfl.ai/careers
- @SloteNetwork, Bio: a DePIN enabling anyone with hardware to contribute to AI inference, earning direct SOL for tasks. Backed by @YCombinator. slote.network
- @0xbeepit, Bio: agent economy protocol // a2a payments / agentic treasury / talk to money justbeep.it
- @pascal_markets, Bio: prediction markets for traders pascal.trade

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

i'm giving my fair and unbiased opinion

beyond these mainstream cex that there are some really good regional focused cex which i think many of us have underestimated their potential

there are some others which i think can bring so much more regional traction to projects.

my regionalized cex list 👇

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1996041429857276271

Thread: 10 Big Macro/Geopolitical Storms Facing Markets Right Now

🧵

Time is a flat circle...

And today- in late 2025- we are once again confronted by a host of storms on the macroeconomic horizon...

Here's the top 10 that are most worrying imho:

1/x

https://x.com/rektdiomedes/status/1995911757064188374

You can't replicate this moat.

$MNT is now the #21 coin by mcap and the LARGEST L2 token by far and nearly 50% above $ARB.

Mantle IS Bybit's official chain

If you watched $BNB's 2021 run, you know exactly what this setup means.

Here's why $MNT > every other L2 token 👇

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1995882008913084458

👻 Threading Daily — 02.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- This week: Inflation, PMI, Jobs data
- Silver keeps hitting ATHs, up 2x this year
- Japan yields hit highest since 2008
- FX moves not based on fundamentals: Japan FM
- Trump to announce Fed Chair soon
- US Black Friday sales hit record high
- BoE to release financial stability report
- Opec+ plans to pause output hikes in early 2026
- US closes Venezuela’s airspace
- Nato considers being ‘more aggressive’ to Russia
- Ukraine moves forward on peace plan talks

🔖Crypto News
- Sunday sell-off accelerates on fears about Japan
- Crypto exchange volume at lowest since June
- Strategy CEO: Selling BTC is last resort
- Second highest BTC ETF outflows ever in Nov
- HYPE team only partially re-stakes unlock
- First LINK ETF expected to launch this week
- Vitalik wants Zcash to resist token voting
- Tether CEO defends asset coverage for USDT
- China reaffirms crypto ban, flags stablecoin risks
- Sony plans to issue USD stablecoin
- Nasdaq to ‘move fast’ on tokenised stocks
- CoinShares withdraws XRP, SOL, LTC ETF filing
- Upbit’s audit of $30m hack uncovers wallet flaw
- Hashkey clears key hearing for HK IPO
- Durov announces compute network Cocoon
- Zama opens sealed-bid Dutch auction for 10% $ZAMA
- Kalshi responds to class action lawsuit
- Kalshi introduces tokenized event contracts on SOL

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Tokenized Stocks & RWAs - November Review
- Full Extent of “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” Against Crypto

🔖Raises
- Zoo Finance (Strategic) $8M, Native Liquidity Structured Protocol < BitriseCapital, Signum
- BitStack $15M, Bitcoin savings account app < 13books, Y Combinator

🔖Early Projects
- @fableborne, Bio: Raid Your Enemies and Protect Your Kingdom! | ARPG + Strategy Genre Blending Gameplay | Free to Play, Web3-Powered Mobile Game by @PixionGames
- @DeepNodeAI, Bio: The foundation for open, honest AI.
We broke the black box so everyone can see the light. dnode.ai

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

all in on $SOLO + smashing ath during one of $BTC worst recent days

here are some points i like about $SOLO and the $META ecosystem:

- wait until @CryptoHayes discovers $SOLO, hes been buying $PENDLE and $ENA
- the $ENA of @solana (just realized that solana logo changed colours 😈)
- they have $102M commited from their @MetaDAOProject ICO raise
- 100% community focused and its unlike extractive projects with big VCs
- i always say: find strength in market weakness, and @solomon_labs is one that is shipping and pumping when $BTC is dumping
- they form a key part of a defi flywheel in the metadao eco
- people are rotating into $SOLO
- a product built for both a bear and bull market
- tvl just gained 40% with 500 new users

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1995755695300640959

it’s been less than 2 months since I first called out Harmonix, and nothing has changed.

i’m still extremely bullish going into their ICO on @echodotxyz and TGE next month

sonar sale participants have have their downside protected

there will be a protection floor treasury in place: if $HAR trades below the sale level after a fixed period, the vault automatically buy back $HAR + $HYPE will be redistributed to $HAR stakers.

@harmonixfi has a product people actually use and a community that isn’t botted to hell.

look at the sale structure:

$600k overflow
100% unlocked at TGE
no shady private rounds
no hidden unlocks
US accredited buyers locked 1 full year

= Early sell pressure basically zero.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1995701867758977040

👻 Threading Daily — 01.12.2025 👻

🔖Macro
- Silver hits ATH
- Trump mulls income tax cuts due to tariffs
- ECB Minutes point to likely rate cut in H1 2026
- Swiss decry ‘gold bar diplomacy’ in US trade deal
- Apple to overtake Samsung as top phone maker
- Chinese firms training AI offshore with Nvidia chips
- OpenAI partners amass $100b debt pile
- AI can already replace 12% of workforce: MIT Study

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto on track for largest monthly outflow ever
- December starts with $640M liquidation
- Switzerland delays sharing crypto tax info
- Australia to requires licenses from crypto platforms
- Naver, Upbit to invest $7b into AI, blockchain
- S&P cuts Tether stability score to ‘weak’
- ETH raises block gas limit to 60m ahead of Fusaka
- BitMine buys $44m more ETH
- Grayscale files for first ever Zcash ETF
- Infinex plans $15m SONAR ICO at $300m FDV
- Lazarus Group suspected of $32m Upbit hack

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Tether Refutes Hayes’ Insolvency Claims — Paolo Ardoino
- Privacy & Confidentiality Ecosystem on Solana — Solana
- The Real State of AI Economy — Eli5

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @indexy_xyz, Bio: Discover, track and get exposure to crypto markets with smart indexes by @kaloh_nft indexy.xyz
- @0xbeepit, Bio: agent economy protocol // a2a payments / agentic treasury / talk to money justbeep.it
- @pascal_markets, Bio: prediction markets for traders pascal.trade

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

🚨 Security Alert: Our official X account (@elfa_ai) has been compromised.

We are NOT posting any smart contract addresses, promotions, or links at this time.

Please do NOT interact with anything posted there.

We are working with X Support to recover the account.

Official updates will be posted only here.

https://x.com/hypetris_/status/1995147298675007955

The REAL state that we are in

I am going to breakdown the REAL STATE of the economy we are in. If you have been catching up with the previous macro pulses, it should give you a hint.
Its AI and AI is the only engine still pulling GDP forward.

Everything else like labor markets, households, affordability, asset access is sliding downhill.
Everyone keeps waiting for the “cycle turn.” There is no cycle.

Here’s the truth:
- Markets don’t trade fundamentals now.
- AI capex is literally the thing preventing a technical recession.
- 2026 is setting up for a liquidity wave that consensus hasn’t even started pricing.
- Inequality is a macro headwind that forces policy.
- The bottleneck for AI isn’t GPUs. It’s energy.
- Crypto is becoming the only asset class with real upside for younger cohorts, which makes it politically relevant.
- Don’t make the mistake by misdiagnosing this transition risk and allocating into the wrong side of the game.

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1995053032384639299

FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/the-real-state-that-we-are-in

$HYPE team finished unstaking 40mins ago

$90M sitting in spot

we bidding or shorting?

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/1994637257056424317