This is the most crowded bull market setup of the cycle.

I caught the last local top with this signal.

Alt OI > BTC OI is a local-top signal, not a start of a bull.

Here are the obvious signs:

- Alt OI > BTC OI = leverage migrated down the cap curve

- Thin spot liquidity + perp positioning = small shock → forced de-risking.

- 2025 ≠ 2021
2021: liquidity expansion → broad beta bid.
2025: fiat erosion → selective flows into quality + attention.

- FOMC is the catalyst

Some tell tale signs right now

- BTC $88.9k, still 30% below the Oct peak ($125k).
Price is holding up while positioning risk has been rebuilding.

- Spot BTC ETFs have flipped to net outflows into year-end.
They remove incremental demand and make price more sensitive to macro volatility (because there’s less passive absorption when sellers show up).

- US 10Y ~4.15%
High risk-free yields raise the hurdle rate for everything that’s effectively long-duration / long-liquidity (most alts).

- Stablecoin supply is huge (~$308–310B), but their flow matters more.
But if supply is flat/down near the highs, it often means we’re seeing rotation within crypto rather than fresh fiat inflow. The real green light is re-accelerating net issuance + rising velocity (stablecoins actually moving)

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2004438013217329572