Ilya Grashchenkov, the director of the Center for the Development of Regional Policy in Moscow, said that Russian political elites still saw the summit as “a chance” for some movement toward ending the war, but that many were also “ready to continue” it.
“Some believe it’s impossible to reach any agreement, arguing that Putin’s firm stance on achieving his goals shows he isn’t prepared to make any concessions,” Mr. Grashchenkov said. “Others are cautiously optimistic, figuring that if representatives from all the elite groups are attending, it suggests some sort of preliminary deal has already been reached.”
The Russian delegation at the peace talks consists of the country’s top diplomatic and military officials, but it also includes the finance minister, Anton G. Siluanov, and Kirill А. Dmitriev, Mr. Putin’s special envoy on foreign investment and economic cooperation.
Economic relations may be discussed, and Mr. Grashchenkov said that Russia was interested in “ending the conflict” in order to lift at least some of the sanctions imposed by Western states.
Over the past three years, the Russian economy has defied expectations of a deep recession or an outright collapse, mainly because of increased state spending that fueled a period of rapid economic growth. But Russia has paid for that economic boom with ballooning inflation and high interest rates.
As a result, the Kremlin can no longer increase spending as it did in the previous three years, said Mr. Suverov, the investment analyst. The only alternative would be to increase taxes, he said, which would be likely to plunge the economy into a recession.
