Trump or Harris? No Difference for Moscow.

In his latest take @sanctionsrisk weights in prospects of Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris presidency in relation to Russia.

"Trump’s possible victory in the 2024 election will change little for Russia.

👉 Trump is known as an opponent of arms control agreements, but they continued to erode under Biden and could be eliminated by Kamala Harris just as easily as by Trump.

👉 Trump will actively lobby for American energy supplies to the European market, helped by the EU’s own sanctions against Russia. Trump’s threat to force European allies to pay for their security will not break NATO solidarity; they did not undermine it even during his first term, and are even less likely to do so now, given the crisis in relations with Russia. Indeed, NATO’s European members are now increasing military expenditures on their own initiative.

👉 Trump will not be able to untie the Ukrainian knot absent the necessary conditions, such as the exhaustion of Western resources or Russia’s decisive victory.

👉 Finally, Trump’s return to power is unlikely to destabilize the American political system, and even if internal divisions deepen, they will not affect foreign policy. The U.S. presidential election is of secondary or even tertiary importance for Russia."