More positions die from resolution rules than from bad forecasting

"Will it be announced by December 31" — announced by whom? Does a leak count? A draft? Whose timezone? Every market resolves against a specific written source, and that document is the only reality that pays out.

You can be completely right about the world and still lose, because the market was asking a narrower question than you thought it was.

The habit that fixes it: read the resolution criteria before you read the price. Every time, including the markets you think are obvious. Especially those.

trade smart with → @sides