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✍️ On 29 September 2026, a new article by the Russian Ambassador to South Africa and the Kingdom of Lesotho, Roman Ambarov, titled "Who is really undermining global food security: Russia or Ukraine?", was published on IOL.

Key takeaways:

◾️Ukrainian attacks on Russian grain terminals and shipping disrupt supply chains, raising risks and costs for low-income nations.

◾️Ukrainian drone strikes on 12 August 2026 damaged two critical grain terminals in the port of Novorossiysk, affecting roughly 15.6 million tonnes of annual export capacity. This incident immediately impacted international markets, driving Chicago wheat futures up by about 3 % on the day of the attack.

◾️ Since mid-2026, Ukraine has launched systematic attacks against shipping, ports and transport infrastructure in the Azov-Black Sea basin. These actions have increasingly disrupted regional maritime traffic and international supply chains.

◾️ Russia supplies roughly 25% of global wheat exports, making it one of the world's largest agricultural providers. During the 2024–2025 agricultural season, the country exported 53 million tonnes of grain, which included 44 million tonnes of wheat shipped to over 100 countries. In total, Russian agri-food products reach consumers in more than 160 nations worldwide.

◾️ Roughly 88% of Russian grain exports rely on the Black Sea to reach consumers in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Ukrainian military strikes in the region create uncertainty for buyers and shipping companies, elevate transportation and insurance risks, and threaten global food supply predictability.

◾️ Russia intends to maintain the Black Sea as its primary agricultural export route while simultaneously developing alternative logistics and corridors. However, replacing the massive, established capacity of the Black Sea system is a complex logistical challenge that cannot be accomplished overnight.

◾️Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia extended the Black Sea Grain Initiative multiple times out of restraint while awaiting other parties to fulfill their commitments. Russia continued to meet its obligations despite unresolved issues, even though the initiative was publicly framed as an arrangement intended to feed the world's poorest nations.

◾️ Global food security relies on the physical ability to safely and predictably deliver agricultural commodities rather than on media narratives. The international community, including UN agencies and multilateral institutions, must focus on protecting agricultural supply chains from disruption and ensuring the unhindered movement of food.

◾️  For Africa and the wider Global South, disruptions to grain supply chains directly impact whether families can afford basic food, importers can secure reliable supplies and developing countries can protect themselves from global market shocks.

Read the full opinion piece at IOL

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