Enten On Decline Of Trump Base: "These Are The Types Of Numbers On Which Democratic Waves Are Built"
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/10/07/enten_on_decline_of_trump_base_these_are_the_types_of_numbers_on_which_democratic_waves_are_built.html

CNN data analyst Harry Enten breaks down polling showing Democrats making gains among 2024 Trump voters in key Senate and House races.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Twenty-seven days to go until the midterm elections. And as we've been reporting this morning, some Republican insiders are starting to tell our reporters they are worried about the possibility of a bloodbath in the midterms. Major losses. And one of the problems seems to be that the calls, as it were, the calls for concern are coming from within the building. What do I mean?

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is here.

Problems on the home front for the president.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Absolutely right. Johnny B. talks about that bloodbath. And that is because Democrats across the board are coming in and going into the Trump den like a lion and taking a bite out of the support from Trump supporters among Republicans.

Take a look here. The median margin in the key 2026 Senate races. Look at this. Among 2024 Harris voters, Democrats pretty much are holding on to the Harris supporters. Look at this, up by 92 points among them, right? Harris won these voters by 100.

But look at this. Look at this among 2024 Trump voters. They are only supporting Republican candidates by 79 points. So, that's a 13 point difference here. And more than that, of course, remember, these 2024 Trump voters, they went for Donald Trump by 100. So, we're talking about a 21 point decline. These are the types of numbers that allow Democrats to go into these red states. Remember, the key Senate states are overwhelmingly Republican. And this is allowing them to actually win in these states, or at least lead in these states right now, because they are getting such a large chunk of the Trump base.

BERMAN: It's a one for one shift here.

ENTEN: Right.

BERMAN: When you're leaving from a Trump base, from a Republican, and going to a Democrat, you can see what the problem is there. That's the key senate races. What about in the House?

ENTEN: Yes, OK, Johnny B., so these are the Senate races, right? Same situations going on nationally, although to a little bit lesser of an extent.

Take a look here. OK. The margin in the national House polling.

Among the 2024 Harris voters, look at that, Democrats ahead by 91 points. They're basically -- all the people who voted for Harris are basically saying they are going to vote for a Democratic nominee for the House.

Take a look here. Among the Trump voters, it's the same phenomenon there. They're, simply put, not holding on to the Trump base at this point. Remember, again, Trump won these voters by 100 points. Now we're seeing a 16-point decline here and a seven point difference here. These are the types of numbers on which Democratic waves are built. These are the types of numbers that lead to bloodbaths. That's why I said, it's like a lion going into the Trump den and taking a real bite out of it, because these are the types of numbers that allow Democrats to do so well if the Republicans did well in 2024.

BERMAN: Again, we're talking about Trump voters.

ENTEN: Correct.

BERMAN: A hundred percent of which voted for Donald Trump in 2024.

ENTEN: Correct.

BERMAN: What are they saying about one of the big issues in this election?

ENTEN: Yes, that's exactly right. Remember, these are 100 percent Trump's. They voted for Trump by 100, and now they're only voting by 84. That's a big decline. And what is driving it? What is driving this decline?