Bevan: If Gas Prices Don't Go Down Before Midterms, Republicans Are in for a World of Hurt
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/09/29/bevan_polls_look_dire_for_gop_but_watch_the_price_of_gas.html

RCP co-founder Tom Bevan said on Monday's RealClearPolitics podcast (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/09/28/rcp_podcast_do_republicans_need_a_reality_check.html) that Democratic candidates' polling leads going into the midterm elections are starting to eclipse the margins of error, but the real deciding factor will be whether the price of gas starts going back down in the next four weeks.

"Even if you don't believe the polls are fully accurate, they're getting to the point where they'd have to be wrong by 4 or 5 points to give Republicans a chance of holding the Senate," he said. Republicans are behind by 8.4 points in the latest RCP Average of the Generic Congressional Vote (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote) and 8 points in the Georgia Senate race (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/georgia/ossoff-vs-collins).

A pollster at the National Republican Senatorial Committee meeting last weekend apparently told party leaders they still have a chance to gain seats in the Senate. "According to Axios' report (https://www.axios.com/2026/09/26/senate-republicans-sea-island-midterms-nrsc), Republicans were calling that 'deluded' and saying they haven't reached the stage of acceptance yet -- they're still in denial," Bevan said. "At least that pollster was. But I think the donors and a lot of Republicans understand what they're facing."

"They understand this is a bad environment and that it's not going to be pretty. But it felt like, according to that article, that they're being lied to, right? They're being gaslit."

"I mean, look, is the GOP holding the Senate still within the realm of possibilities? Yeah," he said. "But the idea that would gain seats seems, at this point, delusional."

"Watch the price of gas and diesel. If it doesn't go down in the next four weeks, Republicans are going to be in a world of hurt," he added. "It's a more important number than the presidential approval rating."