Everything we've been showing you, the bottom line number here, the generic congressional ballot, which party do folks say they vote for for Congress right now? That's a five point advantage, 50-45 for the Democrats right now. Again, we can compare it, eight years ago, Trump's first midterm, at around this same point, it was a seven-point advantage for Democrats.

KRISTEN WELKER: Well, a slightly larger advantage than we remember back in 2018. There was a blue wave, Democrats taking back the House, netting more than 40 seats, Steve.

STEVE KORNACKI: That's right. And if there's going to be a blue wave like that this time, the Democrats need to make some big incursions into Republican territory. Republicans are hoping that while this is not a good number for them, it's close enough that it can prevent those deep incursions.