STEVE KORNACKI: Let's start with the bottom line number here on the president's job performance. It stands at 41% approval in our new NBC News poll. And this is the lowest mark for Trump in our poll during his second term here. This number was closer to the mid-high 40s when he started out. Now down to 41 inside of two months until Election Day. What is driving that? What is dragging him down? Huge thing here, obviously, it's the economy. Asking folks, Have Trump's policies helped or hurt? Only a quarter here, basically, of voters are saying they've helped. A majority now saying that they've hurt. And just look at the change here over the course of this year. Back in March, the numbers weren't good for the president, but he was about ten points better on help, and hurt wasn't yet a majority. It's now nearly 60% of independent voters, Kristen, who say Trump's policies have hurt when it comes to the economy. And it's not just the economy, it's also the war with Iran. Look at this, asking folks, Do you think it's worth it or not?

Only a third of voters say worth it, 62% say it isn't. So those are two major drags on Trump – and his party. Asking bigger picture here, folks, What do you think the single most important issue facing the country is? You see inflation at the top of the list, you see the others that make the top list here. Where do voters think? How do they rank the parties? Which party on each issue do they say would do a better job? And check this out, what do you see? Almost all blue. One advantage for the Republicans on immigration. But look at this. On inflation and on jobs and the economy, that may not look like much, plus one for the Democrats. That's the first time in our poll in nine years, since 2017, that there's been any kind of Democratic advantage there.

KRISTEN WELKER: Well, it's a significant shift and it is notable, Republicans still leading on immigration. But Steve, as you say, inflation continues to be the top issue for voters.

STEVE KORNACKI: Yeah, top of the list means more voters say that than any other issue. And you see that Democratic advantage there. And another thing this translates into, this is negative energy. This is something Republicans and the president have to worry about. We asked voters here, Is your midterm vote going to send a signal of opposition to the president? Look at this, 43% say yes, they want to signal opposition to Trump. We've been asking this question, look at this, going back 20 years in midterms. Never seen a number this high. That includes in Trump's first term when it was only 33%. So that's another clear headwind for the president and for his party. Now here's where things get a little interesting though.

Asked about the image of each party, right, Democrats and Republicans. Republicans are not that popular. The Democrats are far less popular, 29 and 50. And that is a change. The 2018 midterm of Trump's first term here, you can see it, still unpopular Republicans, better numbers for Democrats.

KRISTEN WELKER: Well, and here we are talking about the headwinds for Republicans. This is a clear headwind for Democrats heading into the midterms.

STEVE KORNACKI: Absolutely. Republicans are hoping this gives voters who are not sold on Trump pause before actually flipping over and voting for Democrats. And then you take a look at where that might be coming from as well here. Your opinion of the movement sort of shaping each party. The MAGA Movement for Republicans, the Democratic Socialists of America, we've seen energy from them in the primaries this year. Neither one you can see is popular at all. Very, very unpopular with all voters here. And then take a look here among Independents in particular, it's nearly 60% negative for MAGA, the DSA a little bit less well known, but 16% positive, 46% negative. Now what does this all translate into?