PROtrading

🔥 Fidelity and BlackRock Sold — Now $81K Has to Hold

The biggest Bitcoin funds were both on the sell side yesterday.

Fidelity’s FBTC saw $152.7M leave, BlackRock’s IBIT lost $110.9M, and total US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $261.4M.

That matters because only a day earlier the funds had brought in $175.7M. Institutional demand is not building a trend — it is reacting session by session.

BTC is feeling that uncertainty and has slipped toward $81.4K.

Macro is adding pressure too. September inflation accelerated to 3.7%, putting another Fed hike back on the table just as the market was starting to hope the tightening cycle might cool.

For me, the next decision is happening around $81K–$81.5K.

If that area survives, a move back above $83K would show buyers are still willing to absorb the ETF selling. If it fails, the market may need to search for a lower base before another recovery attempt.

The flow data turned negative again. Now price has to show whether that selling has already been absorbed.

PROtrading ☄️

🏦 Kraken’s Next Expansion Isn’t Another Exchange — It’s Banking

Payward is moving deeper into traditional finance with an agreement to acquire the owner of Lithuania-licensed Saldo Bank.

The strategic value is obvious: a banking license gives the Kraken parent direct access to services like deposits, lending, cards and SEPA payments instead of relying on external financial partners for every step.

That could eventually let users move between fiat, crypto and tokenized assets inside a much more integrated ecosystem. The deal still needs regulatory approval and is expected to close in 2027.

BTC is trading around $83.5K.

The interesting part is not that a crypto company bought a bank. It is that crypto platforms are starting to compete for control of the same infrastructure traditional banks have owned for decades.

PROtrading ☄️

🔥 Bitcoin Is Showing an Unusual Kind of Strength

BTC is not rallying this morning. That is not the interesting part.

The interesting part is that it is holding near $83.4K while some of Asia’s biggest AI names are getting hit hard. SK Hynix fell around 10%, Samsung lost more than 7%, and the broader Korean market suffered one of its worst sessions in months.

In other words, risk appetite deteriorated sharply — but Bitcoin has not followed.

Macro is giving BTC a little help. Treasury yields have backed away from their recent highs, with the 10-year near 5.19%, while Brent has eased toward $105. That is still a restrictive environment, just less hostile than it was last week.

For me, the setup now revolves around $83K.

If buyers keep defending it and eventually reclaim $84.5K–$85K, today’s resilience becomes much more meaningful. If support breaks, then Bitcoin was simply late to the risk-off move.

With CPI due tomorrow, I would rather watch the reaction than force a trade.

Relative strength matters most when the rest of the market is giving you a reason to sell.

PROtrading ☄️

🪙 Bitcoin Is Starting to Work Like Traditional Collateral

South Korea has now moved BTC one step deeper into the banking system.

Jeonbuk Bank is issuing corporate loans in Korean won against Bitcoin collateral. The BTC itself stays with a licensed custodian, while the borrower receives regular fiat financing for business expenses.

That structure is important because the bank does not need to hold Bitcoin directly.

If the borrower defaults, the pledged BTC can be liquidated through a court process under the new enforcement framework that took effect on October 1.

For now, only Bitcoin is accepted, and the bank has not disclosed rates, LTV or loan limits.

BTC is trading near $83.4K.

The bigger point is simple: Bitcoin is no longer only something institutions invest in. It is starting to function as collateral inside ordinary credit markets.

PROtrading ☄️

👀 Bitcoin Survived a $679M ETF Outflow Week

Good morning, team!

BTC is trading around $83.6K after defending the $82.7K–$83K area through the weekend. Buyers still haven’t secured a clean move above $84K, but the fact that price held up after a rough week for ETF flows is worth watching.

US spot Bitcoin funds lost roughly $679M last week. Most of the damage came from Wednesday and Thursday, with −$484.9M and −$244.1M respectively. Friday finally broke the streak with a small +$21.1M inflow.

🌐 Macro pressure has eased slightly as well. Brent has pulled back toward $103 on hopes of progress around an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, taking some pressure off the inflation story.

But the real test comes Wednesday with US CPI, where headline inflation is expected around 3.7%.

For now, $82.8K–$83K is the support zone I want to see hold. Above $84.1K, buyers get another shot at $85K.

Bitcoin absorbed two ugly ETF sessions without breaking. CPI will tell us whether that resilience has real follow-through.

PROtrading ☄️

📈 Asia’s Crypto ETF Map Just Got Bigger

Thailand is joining the move toward regulated Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products.

New rules effective October 16 create a domestic framework for crypto ETFs traded directly on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. At launch, the eligible assets are limited to BTC and ETH.

There are clear guardrails: the ETF must follow a passive strategy, maintain at least 80% average exposure to one underlying crypto asset and use SEC-regulated custody.

⚖️ What happened today is not the launch of a particular Bitcoin ETF.

It is arguably more important for the long term: regulators have created the rulebook that allows Thai asset managers to build and launch those products.

That means investors can eventually get BTC or ETH exposure through familiar brokerage infrastructure instead of handling the assets themselves.

Bitcoin is trading near $82.5K.

The crypto ETF story is no longer concentrated in the US. Regulated access is gradually becoming a global market.

PROtrading ☄️

💰 ETF Money Is Leaving – Bitcoin Still Hasn’t Broken

BTC is holding near $82.45K after two straight sessions of heavy ETF selling.

The numbers are not small: $484.9M left US spot Bitcoin ETFs on October 7, followed by another $238.6M yesterday. More than $723M exited in 48 hours, with Fidelity accounting for roughly $197M of the latest outflow.

Normally, that kind of flow would make me expect a much uglier chart.

Instead, Bitcoin is still holding above $82K.

That tells me the market is absorbing more selling than the headline suggests. The macro backdrop has also become slightly less hostile, with oil, Treasury yields and the dollar all easing from recent highs.

US tech is still weak, so the environment is far from perfect.

📍 For now, $82K is the only level that really matters. Hold it and BTC has room to recover toward $83.3K–$84K. Lose it, and the market probably goes looking for lower liquidity again.

The outflows are real. The breakdown still isn’t.

PROtrading ☄️

💼 A Fund May Soon Need Fewer Crypto-Native Providers

Standard Chartered is extending its digital-asset strategy to Singapore with planned institutional custody for crypto, stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets.

On its own, another custody launch may not sound revolutionary. But look at what the bank is assembling around it.

Trading. Financing. Custody. Tokenized assets.

And the infrastructure is being spread across financial centers including the UAE, Luxembourg, Hong Kong and now Singapore.

That means an institutional client can increasingly access digital assets through the same type of global banking relationship it already uses for traditional markets.

The shift is subtle but important: crypto is moving from an external product banks connect to, toward something they service directly inside their own platforms.

BTC is trading around $83K.

Institutional adoption may end up looking much less like “banks entering crypto” and much more like crypto simply becoming part of banking.

PROtrading ☄️

🛢 Oil Above $101 Just Hit Crypto Hard

Bitcoin’s latest selloff did not start with a crypto headline.

Renewed tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent back above $101, dragged Treasury yields higher and strengthened the dollar. BTC responded by falling from around $86.6K to the low-$83K area.

Then leverage made everything worse.

Roughly $550M in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with longs taking the overwhelming majority of the damage. ETH fell harder than Bitcoin, while smaller tokens suffered even sharper declines.

That is why I would not describe this as just another red day. The original move came from macro, but once key levels broke, forced selling amplified it.

Bitcoin is now testing a much more important area around $83K. Hold it and the market gets a chance to stabilize after the liquidation flush. Lose it cleanly, and $80K becomes a very realistic next zone.

Oil started the move. Leverage turned it into a selloff.

PROtrading ☄️

📊 Nasdaq Is at Record Highs — Bitcoin Is Still Waiting

Good morning, team!

Wall Street gave crypto a pretty friendly setup yesterday. The Nasdaq closed at another record, oil slipped toward $100, and expectations for another Fed hike in October have fallen to roughly 24%.

Yet BTC is still hovering around the $86K area with almost no daily progress.

That divergence is what interests me most. Risk appetite is clearly alive in equities, but Bitcoin is not participating in the same move.

There are two obvious brakes. Treasury yields remain extremely high, with the 10-year around 5.3%, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $89.8M in net outflows on Monday.

So the backdrop looks better on the surface, but crypto demand is still not strong enough to produce a clean breakout.

For now, $85K remains the support I care about. Reclaim $86.5K and buyers can make another run toward $87.5K–$88K.

If BTC starts losing $85K while tech stocks keep printing records, that relative weakness becomes much harder to ignore.

PROtrading ☄️

⚡️ BTC Keeps Knocking on $87K With Almost No ETF Support

A week ago, Bitcoin had billions of dollars in ETF inflows behind it. Now it doesn’t.

US spot funds attracted roughly $2.39B two weeks ago, but last week’s net inflow collapsed to only about $83M. Normally, such a sharp drop in institutional demand would be an obvious warning sign.

Instead, BTC is still hovering near $86K and has already tested the $87K area again.

That resilience is being helped by the macro side. After the weak US jobs report, markets now see less than a 20% chance of another Fed hike in October, down from roughly 64% just a week earlier.

💡 In other words, one tailwind disappeared while another one arrived.

Treasury yields are still high and the dollar remains firm, so this is not an easy environment. But Bitcoin is holding anyway.

My map is simple: $85K is support, $87K is the breakout trigger.

If $87K finally goes while ETF flows remain muted, that would tell me the rally is no longer dependent on one source of demand.

PROtrading ☄️

🔥 Bad Macro, ETF Outflows — Bitcoin Still Broke Higher

Good morning, team!

There are days when the reaction tells you more than the news. This looks like one of them.

The US 10-year yield hit a 24-year high around 5.34%, the dollar moved to its strongest level in roughly 18 months, and another $92.9M left spot Bitcoin ETFs. None of that stopped BTC from reaching $86,885.

That is meaningful relative strength.

It does not mean the market suddenly became risk-free, though. Today’s September employment report is the next catalyst, with economists looking for roughly 90K new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate.

👀 The Fed angle is what makes the release dangerous. October hike odds have fallen to around 28%, so unexpectedly strong labor data could reverse part of that move and put pressure back on risk assets.

Bitcoin is holding near $86K for now. As long as $85K survives, I’m treating the breakout as valid and keeping $86.9K–$87K in focus.

If $85K disappears after the data, the message changes quickly.

BTC has shown strength. Today we find out whether that strength can survive a real macro test.

PROtrading ☄️

📊 Lately, crypto has started to feel unnecessarily noisy.

The same narratives keep circulating: endless altcoins, liquidation screenshots, breaking-news alerts and another “last chance to buy” every few days. At some point, it becomes difficult to separate an actual setup from background noise.

That is why I’ve been spending more time looking at stocks.

The market is still speculative, of course, but the framework feels cleaner: there is a real company, earnings, expectations, valuation, price levels — and a trade can be built around something concrete.

One channel I recently added is Hedge Capital: https://t.me/Hedge_Capital

They regularly share stock setups and trading signals for free. I wouldn’t treat any channel as an automatic way to make money, but as another source of ideas and market perspectives, it has been useful.

Leaving it here for anyone who also wants a break from the crypto noise 👇
https://t.me/Hedge_Capital

PROtrading ☄️

JUST IN: $85,000 Bitcoin

PROtrading ☄️

🇺🇸 The US Economy Is Cooling — And the Fed Is Finally Noticing

Bitcoin is trading near $83.1K after a relatively quiet session, but the more important move is happening in macro.

Yesterday delivered two clear signs of weakness. US job openings fell to 7.08M, while consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 — its lowest level since 2014. The economy is not falling apart, but momentum is clearly becoming less comfortable.

The Fed is already adjusting its tone. New York Fed President John Williams said there is no urgency to raise rates again after September, pushing expectations for an October hike lower.

That should be constructive for BTC. The problem is that financial conditions are still tight: the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 5.2%, keeping pressure on risk assets despite softer Fed rhetoric.

📍 I’m watching $82.5K–$83K as support. A move back above $84K would show buyers are finally responding to the improving macro setup. Lose $82.5K, and the correction remains in control.

Today’s ADP report gives us the next labor-market test.

The economy is weakening, the Fed is becoming more patient — now Bitcoin needs to show it can actually benefit.

PROtrading ☄️

🧭 Bitcoin Leverage Is Drying Up — That Changes the Setup

BTC has cooled sharply from the recent $87K high, but the futures market has been resetting at the same time.

Open interest is down near 652K BTC, while funding rates are negative again. That tells us two things: speculative leverage has been reduced, and the traders still using it are increasingly positioned for downside.

👀 This is where the setup becomes interesting.

Bearish positioning can pressure price, but it also creates potential squeeze fuel if BTC refuses to break support. A market packed with longs is fragile on the way down; a market increasingly filled with shorts can become fragile on the way up.

Bitcoin is currently back around $84K, while the macro side remains hostile. Treasury yields are above 5.2%, Brent is near $106, and today’s JOLTS numbers could reinforce expectations for further Fed tightening.

The zone I care about remains $82.8K–$83K. Hold it and keep building above $84K, and the bearish positioning starts becoming uncomfortable for shorts.

Lose it cleanly, and sellers have confirmation.

For once, Bitcoin does not look overleveraged. It looks defensive — and that can produce very different price action.

PROtrading ☄️

81% of all Bitcoin in circulation hasn’t moved in at least six months

PROtrading ☄️

👀 Bitcoin Has a $2.39B Tailwind — So Why Isn’t It Moving Higher?

Good morning, team!

Seven straight ETF sessions in the green should normally be a very bullish backdrop. Last week alone, nearly $2.39B flowed into US Bitcoin funds.

But price is telling a more complicated story.

BTC pushed above $85K over the weekend and then gave almost all of that move back, returning to roughly $83K. The institutional bid is clearly there, but so is a growing macro headwind.

🛢 Brent has climbed back toward $107 after another setback in US-Iran talks. Higher oil is pulling inflation concerns and bond yields back into focus, while the dollar remains close to its strongest level in two months.

That makes $83K more important than another headline about ETF inflows.

If buyers defend this area and BTC gets back above $84K, I’ll watch for another test of $85K. If $83K fails cleanly, the market may need to correct further before the ETF demand starts showing up in price again.

This week should answer an interesting question: how much institutional buying does it take to overpower rates, oil and a stronger dollar?

PROtrading ☄️