🇨🇳🧫🇺🇸 U.S. Chip War Doing Wonders for Huawei

US restrictions on AI chip exports to China have produced an awkward side effect: Huawei is taking over a market Nvidia once dominated — and struggling to keep up with demand.

In 2022, Nvidia controlled an estimated 95% of China’s AI chip market, according to Fubon Securities.

Now Bernstein forecasts Huawei taking around 50% of the Chinese market in 2026, while Nvidia falls to just 8%. The estimates come from different research firms, but the scale of the shift is remarkable.

Apparently, keeping American chips out of China has been rather good business for their Chinese competitors.

Huawei rotating chairman Eric Xu said in September that the company could not produce enough AI computing equipment to satisfy domestic customers. Demand is so strong that Huawei is limiting its overseas expansion.

Nvidia has been having a rather different experience.

After the US imposed new export licensing requirements on its China-focused H20 chips in April 2025, the American company recorded a $4.5B charge for excess inventory and purchase commitments. It also lost the ability to ship another $2.5B worth of H20 products during that quarter.

Chinese demand for AI computing did not disappear with Nvidia’s access to the market. Domestic suppliers began filling the gap, with Huawei’s Ascend processors becoming an increasingly important part of China’s AI infrastructure.

And Huawei is already building an ecosystem around them.

The company says more than 40 AI models have been trained from scratch on Ascend, while over 1,000 Atlas 900 A3 computing systems have been deployed. Developers are adapting software and building experience around Chinese processors instead of relying exclusively on Nvidia’s CUDA platform.

Huawei still faces serious manufacturing constraints, and its chips lag behind Nvidia’s leading products in several areas. Expanding production remains one of its biggest problems.

But US restrictions are giving Chinese chipmakers something valuable: customers, commercial experience and a growing domestic software ecosystem.

Every Chinese AI developer that switches to Ascend gives Huawei another opportunity to improve its technology and strengthen its position in the market.

US export controls are helping a Chinese rival capture the customers Nvidia spent years cultivating.

Huawei’s most immediate problem is finding enough manufacturing capacity to serve them.

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