ИИ-кольцо

Некоторые читатели, наверное, помнят про «московское кольцо» - группу банков, в 2010-е активно кредитовавших друг друга. Судьба их, как мы теперь уже знаем, сложилась не очень радужно.

Но вот, крупнейшие американские техкомпании, создали свое кольцо перекрестного финансирования, по смыслу весьма похожее. Amazon кредитует Anthropic одновременно поставляя ему чипы Tranium. А Nvidia финансирует покупку уже своих чипов. И т.д. и т.п. BIS опубликовал исследование «Circular relationships among AI firms», и вот кусочки:

Between 2021 and 2025, 28.7% of artificial intelligence (AI) firms’ investment deals (by deal value) involved a target company that was also an AI firm, while 55.2% of incoming investments in AI firms came from other AI firms. Of all the AI-to-AI investment deals between 2021 and 2025, 16.1% (by deal count) and 46.4% (by deal value) also involved commercial supply chain relationships between the investor and target firms.

Финансируют друг друга и раздувают спрос на свои товары/услуги и выручку, короче. Кроме московской, более знакомая авторам американская аналогия – dotcom bubble:

The parallel with the telecommunications boom of the late 1990s is instructive: upstream equipment vendors such as Lucent and Nortel financed network operators so that the operators could buy the vendors’ equipment. This meant that part of the equipment vendors’ reported sales was being funded by the vendors themselves. For a time, as operators expanded their networks, equipment orders also expanded and vendors booked both the sales and loans as assets. However, when operators’ own revenues failed to materialise or slowed, they could neither repay the loans nor sustain the equipment purchases. Equipment vendors then sustained both financial losses and a loss of sales. Such dynamics may also play out in AI if revenue growth and end user demand fall short of firms’ expectations.

Напомню, что капитализация той же Nortel в 2000 превышала $300 млрд, потом она, впрочем, обанкротилась.

@NewGosplan

https://www.bis.org/publications/bulletin-137-circular-relationships-among-ai-firms.pdf