30 июня, 2028 год

Citrini research тут футурологией занялись, и написали что будет с мировой экономикой в середине 2028-го. Разумеется из-за революции ИИ. Дам сюда немного кусочков:

In late 2025, agentic coding tools took a step function jump in capability.

A competent developer working with Claude Code or Codex could now replicate the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS product in weeks. Not perfectly or with every edge case handled, but well enough that the CIO reviewing a $500k annual renewal started asking the question “what if we just built this ourselves?”
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That summer, we spoke with a procurement manager at a Fortune 500. He told us about one of his budget negotiations. The salesperson had expected to run the same playbook as last year: a 5% annual price increase, the standard “your team depends on us” pitch. The procurement manager told him he’d been in conversations with OpenAI about having their “forward deployed engineers” use AI tools to replace the vendor entirely. They renewed at a 30% discount. That was a good outcome, he said. The “long-tail of SaaS”, like Monday.com, Zapier and Asana, had it much worse.
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Coding agents had collapsed the barrier to entry for launching a delivery app. A competent developer could deploy a functional competitor in weeks, and dozens did, enticing drivers away from DoorDash and Uber Eats by passing 90-95% of the delivery fee through to the driver. Multi-app dashboards let gig workers track incoming jobs from twenty or thirty platforms at once, eliminating the lock-in that the incumbents depended on. The market fragmented overnight and margins compressed to nearly nothing.
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Habitual app loyalty, the entire basis of the business model, simply didn’t exist for a machine.
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In this cycle, the job losses have been concentrated in the upper deciles of the income distribution. They are a relatively small share of total employment, but they drive a wildly disproportionate share of consumer spending. The top 10% of earners account for more than 50% of all consumer spending in the United States. The top 20% account for roughly 65%. These are the people who buy the houses, the cars, the vacations, the restaurant meals, the private school tuition, the home renovations. They are the demand base for the entire consumer discretionary economy.

When these workers lost their jobs, or took 50% pay cuts to move into available roles, the consumption hit was enormous relative to the number of jobs lost. A 2% decline in white-collar employment translated to something like a 3-4% hit to discretionary consumer spending.
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By Q2 2027, the economy was in recession
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Software-backed loans began defaulting in Q3 2027.
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The US residential mortgage market is approximately $13 trillion. Mortgage underwriting is built on the fundamental assumption that the borrower will remain employed at roughly their current income level for the duration of the loan. For thirty years, in the case of most mortgages.
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In 2008, the loans were bad on day one. In 2028, the loans were good on day one. The world just…changed after the loans were written. People borrowed against a future they can no longer afford to believe in.
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The system wasn’t designed for a crisis like this. The federal government’s revenue base is essentially a tax on human time. People work, firms pay them, the government takes a cut.

Labor’s share of GDP declined from 64% in 1974 to 56% in 2024, a four-decade grind lower driven by globalization, automation, and the steady erosion of worker bargaining power. In the four years since AI began its exponential improvement, that has dropped to 46%. The sharpest decline on record.

Как оно там все будет никто, конечно, не знает. Но тенденции, как мне кажется, угаданы верно. Про падение доли трудовых доходов в ВВП сам писал еще давно.

@NewGosplan

https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic