Markets are pricing a roughly 29% chance of an unexpected 25 bps hike when the Fed announces its decision on July 29 at 2pm ET, down from 93% hold probability a week ago. Most economists still expect rates to stay at 3.50%–3.75%, but inflation worries and rising oil prices are keeping uncertainty high.
Matters because: a surprise hike would signal a major shift in Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and could pressure growth stocks and crypto assets.