U.S. June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, both below expectations. Core CPI was flat month-over-month at 2.6% year-over-year, versus 2.9% forecast. July Fed rate-hike odds fell from about 50% to 15%, though September odds remain 61%.
Matters because: The softer inflation print lowers near-term rate-hike pressure and supports risk assets, even if oil-driven geopolitical risks keep later hikes in play.