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MoloWarMonitor — MWM

MoloWarMonitor — MWM

@molowarmonitor

Reporting on wars and interesting stuff, OSINT and geopolitics expert.

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Post #1032 177
I would like to offer a brief clarification for those who, in light of recent developments, believe that a war between the U.S. and Iran could break out as early as this weekend, within the next 24 to 48 hours.

In my assessment, this is highly unlikely, as several key indicators that would point to imminent action are still absent.

Most notably, Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, along with other U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf near Iran, has not been evacuated, in fact, as can be seen on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, these facilities remain packed with USAF refueling tankers.

Some might argue that Iran could launch a preemptive strike if it anticipates a U.S. attack, however, this also seems unlikely, had U.S. intelligence detected such a threat, these bases would have been evacuated or, at the very least, their assets would have been moved to dispersal positions.

Naturally, the situation could change overnight, but at this moment, I do not believe the signs point to an imminent war in the Middle East.
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Post #1030 5.23K
I just found a U.S. Navy destroyer assigned to the USS George Washington CSG on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, 17/10/2026.

The vessel is sailing off the coast of Pakistan, in the northern Arabian Sea, approximately 400km from Iran.

As I told you about a month ago, American carrier strike groups in the CENTCOM AOR no longer venture near the Gulf of Oman, instead, they operate hundreds of kilometers away from the so called "naval blockade line."

📍Coordinates:
24.05524, 65.51433
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Post #1029 277
MoloWarMonitor — MWM We are approaching a new, unprecedented escalation in the Middle East, indeed, according to Axios, the Pentagon has ordered CENTCOM to finalize preparations for possible "major strikes" against Iran. President Trump has not made a final decision or set a…
The only certainty is that, in the event of a new massive attack, oil prices would soar to unprecedented levels, this is because, in retaliation, the IRGC would target energy and civilian infrastructure across the Middle East, unleashing chaos in the markets on a scale perhaps never seen before.
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Post #1028 246
We are approaching a new, unprecedented escalation in the Middle East, indeed, according to Axios, the Pentagon has ordered CENTCOM to finalize preparations for possible "major strikes" against Iran.

President Trump has not made a final decision or set a date, but American and Israeli officials say strikes could take place before the U.S. midterm elections in November, or even a week prior to the elections in Israel.

Almost certainly, the approach would differ significantly from that of the morning of February 28, a renewed massive attack could include strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities.

The possibility that attacks could begin before the elections should not be underestimated, despite the risks, President Trump could secure a symbolic victory to satisfy his MAGA voters, to whom he promised that Iran would never possess a nuclear weapon, and an attack on Pickaxe Mountain would be the perfect way to create the appearance of having achieved this goal.
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Post #1027 208
MoloWarMonitor — MWM According to my sources in Israel, there has been unusual fighter jet activity in Tel Aviv and from Nevatim Airbase over the last few hours. The reason is currently unknown, in my opinion, it could be an abundance of caution ahead of October 7th, in case…
Just today, Israeli Defense Minister Katz placed the IDF on high alert ahead of October 7, the third anniversary of the Hamas attack.

The order is based on Shin Bet intelligence indicating that Hamas intends to attempt attacks and operations against Israeli forces in Gaza tomorrow.

Furthermore, the National Security Council (NSC) emphasizes the "increased threat of attempts to harm Israelis and Jews abroad, alongside demonstrations and riots."
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Post #1026 180
According to my sources in Israel, there has been unusual fighter jet activity in Tel Aviv and from Nevatim Airbase over the last few hours.

The reason is currently unknown, in my opinion, it could be an abundance of caution ahead of October 7th, in case something happens in the country.

Although the source reported that dozens of aircraft took off within a few minutes, I strongly doubt this is linked to a potential operation against Iran or other countries in the region.
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Post #1025 225
MoloWarMonitor — MWM I waited several weeks before making this post, but now I can say something with certainty regarding the American aircraft carriers deployed in the CENTCOM area. Since roughly the beginning of September, I have not found the USS George H.W. Bush or the USS…
What did I tell you last night?

My report is now confirmed by concrete facts, U.S. carrier strike groups are now operating far away from Iran, in the heart of the Arabian Sea.
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Post #1024 190
I waited several weeks before making this post, but now I can say something with certainty regarding the American aircraft carriers deployed in the CENTCOM area.

Since roughly the beginning of September, I have not found the USS George H.W. Bush or the USS George Washington, nor the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer, nor any other components of the carrier strike groups, such as Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery.

This implies that the U.S. has decided to pull back beyond the range of Iranian anti-ship missiles, thereby shifting the naval blockade line, which until August had been positioned at the exit of the Gulf of Oman.

This strategic shift was likely prompted by Iran's first reported use of anti-ship ballistic missiles a few weeks ago, which clearly pose a potential threat to U.S. Navy vessels.

In fact, in early September, the IRGC tested the "Qasem Basir" ASBM for the first time, with a maximum range of approximately 1.200 km, it covers almost the entire Arabian Sea.
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Post #1023 174
At about 11:00 a.m. today, a Russian Mi-8 attack helicopter that had taken off from Kaliningrad violated Polish airspace.

The aircraft remained in the airspace for 42 seconds, penetrating about 300 meters into Poland, north of the town of Braniewo.

These are clearly not accidents, but rather provocations orchestrated by Russia to test the limits of NATO's response, which, as always, was limited to scrambling fighter jets and activating air defenses.
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Post #1022 151
Footage shows a plume of smoke rising from Erbil International Airport, Iraqi Kurdistan.

It was likely targeted by an Iranian drone attack, explosions were heard.
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Post #1020 142
The Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar is packed with USAF aerial refueling tankers, as seen on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, 20/09/2026.

This indicates that no American attack will take place in the coming hours, as doing so would put these aircraft at risk.
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Post #1019 318
The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is now crossing the Strait of Malacca, headed for a brief port call in Thailand, before departing for San Diego.

Meanwhile, the USS Theodore Roosevelt will most likely depart San Diego for a deployment in the Pacific.

📍Coordinates:
4.687, 98.555
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Post #1018 216
Something highly significant is unfolding on NATO's eastern flank, particularly among the Nordic countries.

According to SVT, Sweden has approved the provision of direct military support to Finland following a formal request from the Helsinki government.

Several JAS Gripen fighter jets and military vessels will assist Finland in patrolling its border with Russia to identify potential threats.

This move will significantly enhance the alliance's reconnaissance capabilities and readiness to respond to potential incursions by Russian aircraft or drones.

It also signals that Finland is taking the potential Russian threat very seriously, given that the Finnish armed forces are already among the largest in Europe.

Furthermore, by 2030, the Finnish Air Force is set to operate one of Europe's largest fleets of F-35 fighter jets, totaling 64 aircraft, this request for Swedish support indicates that Finland does not wish to wait that long, as it believes the Russian threat may be more imminent than anticipated.
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Post #1017 186
MoloWarMonitor — MWM NATO air activity in Europe is intensifying, several aerial refueling tankers are taking off right now. Currently, two E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft are airborne, one took off recently from Germany heading toward Italy, while the second operated over Romania…
At the moment, two E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft are conducting reconnaissance along NATO's southern flank.

The first is flying over the Adriatic Sea in a highly unusual position off the Italian coast, while the second is operating over southern Turkey.

Additionally, the RC-135W Rivet Joint is currently conducting a SIGINT mission around Kaliningrad.
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Post #1016 166
NATO air activity in Europe is intensifying, several aerial refueling tankers are taking off right now.

Currently, two E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft are airborne, one took off recently from Germany heading toward Italy, while the second operated over Romania for a few hours and is now heading south.

Notably, a Royal Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint is flying towards Polish airspace, likely to conduct reconnaissance over the Baltic states.

Meanwhile, a Swedish ISR aircraft is conducting routine surveillance operations along the border between Finland and Russia.
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Post #1015 149
The mystery surrounding this morning's USAF C-17A flight from Riga to Moscow is deepening.

The last time a CIA director visited Moscow for high-level official meetings was in November 2021, when Burns warned the Kremlin about the troop buildup on the Ukrainian border, just months before the Russian invasion.

There are several possibilities regarding today's visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, the most likely is that he will discuss, perhaps in a conversation with Putin himself, new peace efforts to end the war and ways to strengthen relations between the U.S. and Russia.

Another possibility is that the U.S. wants to avoid miscalculation, given the extremely high tension between NATO and Russia in recent weeks, marked by daily violations of European airspace by Russian drones and increased NATO reconaissance activity off the Russian borders.

What is certain is that the coming months will be very interesting for Europe.
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Post #1014 130
MoloWarMonitor — MWM I am currently in contact with a spokesperson for U.S. Air Forces in Europe regarding the unusual flight of a C-17A from Riga to Moscow. I will provide an update as soon as an official statement is released, although it is highly likely that little information…
As I expected, the spokesperson for the U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) did not give me any official statement regarding the C-17A flight from Riga to Moscow's Vuknovo Airport.

However, according to CBS News, CIA Director John Ratcliffe was onboard the aircraft, in order to attend several high-level meetings with Russian officials.
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Post #1013 110
I am currently in contact with a spokesperson for U.S. Air Forces in Europe regarding the unusual flight of a C-17A from Riga to Moscow.

I will provide an update as soon as an official statement is released, although it is highly likely that little information will be disclosed.
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Post #1012 118
Tensions between the United Kingdom and Russia continue to escalate day by day.

Today, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Britain is directly participating in the war against Russia on Ukraine's side.

He further added that Britain is systematically and regularly adding fuel to the fire of the conflict in Ukraine and working to undermine the peace process.

This statement was prompted by a series of critical decisions made by the British government in recent weeks to support Kyiv in the war against Moscow.

The most significant of these was undoubtedly yesterday's decision to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture components for the British "Storm Shadow" cruise missile, enabling Ukraine to produce them directly for use against Russia.

Another move that displeased Moscow, which I mentioned last week, was Ukraine's use of British jet-powered "Nyan" drones in a deep-strike against Russian targets.
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