Morning Bites (part 1)

⚒Norilsk Nickel sees a 200kt Ni market surplus and 300koz Pd deficit in 2023

• The Ni market is set to remain in a surplus of ~200kt in 2023-24 (vs. the previous estimate of 110kt) due to greater Indonesian NPI output and new Class-1 capacities in China and Indonesia, per Norilsk Nickel. As for 2023, the miner sees Ni supply at 3.45mnt (+10% YoY), with low-grade metal production driving most of the surplus (160kt). Overall, this might be an adverse factor for the sentiment on Ni producers in coming years

• In 2023, the Pd market might stay in a 0.3mnoz deficit (vs. 0.8mnoz seen earlier), amid the revised impact from China’s emission regulations and lower ICE-car sales. Still, supply risks persist from operational issues in S. Africa, as well as the deterioration in recycling. Pd output is seen at 6.5mnoz (-1% YoY). As previously estimated, the Pt market is likely to stay balanced in 2023, with 5.9mnoz of supply (+3% YoY)

#nickel #PGMs 
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