Morning Bites (part 1)

⚒️ Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which reveals a materially improved outlook for nickel. The miner now sees only a marginal 20kt Ni market surplus in 2026, vs. its previous estimate of 275kt, amid lower Indonesian ore availability and higher sulphur costs limiting supply growth

• In PGMs, Nornickel expects the Pd market to be in a 0.3mnoz surplus in 2026 (equivalent to ~3% of demand), excluding investment demand. Meanwhile, the Pt market is also seen in a 0.2mnoz surplus, or ~3% of demand, before investment flows

📝 If investment demand is included, Nornickel sees the Pd market as broadly balanced in 2026, while the Pt market moves into a 0.7mnoz deficit

• The refined Cu market is seen in a slight surplus of 0.25mnt and 0.16mnt in 2026 and 2027, respectively. This estimate looks rather conservative to us, amid strong demand, recent supply disruptions at major copper mines and growing concerns about Chilean production

#nickel #PGMs #copper