Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-January was 1.98mnt, down 0.9% from the previous ten days and also 4.5% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 7.2% over the period and were 24.7% higher YoY. According to the CISA data, local production slid 3.9% YTD (through January-20)

To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed), we believe. The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, in our view

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel