Morning Bites

⚒Nornickel has revised downward its forecast of a Ni market surplus in 2025 to 120kt

• Per Nornickel, the Ni market is now set to remain in a lower surplus of 120-130kt in 2025-26 (than its previous estimate of 150kt in 2025), due to stronger demand in China. This surplus is to be mainly in the Class-1 Ni sector, amid the ramp-up of new production capacities

• Nornickel reiterated its view that the Pd market will be balanced in 2025, but now sees a slight deficit of 0.1mnoz in 2026. Meanwhile, it still expects a slight deficit on the Pt market in 2025 (0.2mnoz), to deepen to 0.3mnoz in 2026

❗️ In our view, the recent PGM rally was driven by speculative factors: we do not see a fundamental driver for such growth in Pt

• Nornickel expects the global Cu market to be balanced in 2025-26, but highlights supply risks and low inventories. This estimate looks conservative to us, given surging grid investment and renewables installations in China

#nickel #PGMs #copper