Morning Bites (part 1)

🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 2% YoY in December, in line with the revised 2% YoY growth in November, the International Aluminium Institute reports. China’s output (59% of global Al output in 2023) rose 2% YoY (also +3% YoY in 2023), following the improved power supply in previously drought-hit parts of the country's hydro-electric system. In our view, a recovery in construction activity in China (~58% of global primary Al demand in 2022), bolstered by a new economic stimulus, remains the main potential trigger for subdued Al prices (-20% at spot vs. the 2022 average), with >50% of global Al suppliers breakeven or loss-making at current prices, on our numbers

Regarding the outlook for 2024, some industry participants expect China’s aluminium supply to rise >2% YoY to 42.7mnt, as new projects could start up in 3Q24

#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium