🌟 Mid-career people are sitting on rare leverage right now


Stanford's Digital Economy Lab published a paper last year tracking what's happening to early-career workers since ChatGPT launched. The team looked at payroll data from millions of US workers.

Workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations saw a 13% relative drop in employment compared to peers in less exposed roles. Seems like no one wants to hire juniors to learn the ropes by doing the boring stuff - as AI now does the boring stuff.

Companies make AI competence a load-bearing part of how they evaluate people.

So what happens to mid-career people in 5-7 years?

If companies stop hiring juniors at the same rate, the pipeline of people ready to step into senior roles dries up. IBM noticed this and announced they're tripling entry-level hiring in 2026, not out of generosity, but because slashing juniors saves money now and creates an expensive talent shortage later.

But ofc most companies dont do this, which means anyone currently sitting in the 3-8 year experience range is in a structurally rare position. That window will not stay open forever, but right now it's the most leverage you'll have in your career to negotiate scope, comp, and the kind of work you actually want to do.

#career